Suns Offense Clanking On The Kick-Out 3-Ball

by Alex Laugan on Feb 19, 2012 8:17 AM MST in Phoenix Suns Commentary

PHOENIX, AZ - FEBRUARY 15: Channing Frye #8 of the Phoenix Suns reacts with Steve Nash #13 after Frye missed a three point shot against the Atlanta Hawks in the final moments of the NBA game at US Airways Center on February 15, 2012 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

For years, we have been pining for an improved defense, all along assuming that the offense would remain prolific as long as Steve Nash manned the PG duties.

You may be surprised to know that spot-up jump shots are the largest overall component of the Suns offense. While nearly every Suns play begins with a pick-and-roll, more of them culminate with a kick-out to an open spot-up than either Nash or the roll man taking the shot. This is the beauty of Nash's offense. Force the defense to react, then kick the ball to where they're not.

Yet, Steve can't be both the passer and the shooter at the same time. When he delivers the ball for an open jump shot this season, the Suns are much less likely to make it than in years past.

And I've got the numbers to prove it, thanks to mySynergySports.com.

According to mySynergySports.com data, what we see with our eyes is fully proven in the numbers. Everything about the Suns offense is the same this year as last year.

The % distribution of plays (spot-up vs. pick-and-roll finishing vs. cuts vs. o-rebounds, etc) is nearly identical. Also, the Suns proficiency in the pick-and-roll is just as good as years past.

In fact, some areas of the Suns offense has improved, like isolations and in transition.

But anything tha culminates in a jump-shot has clanked off the rim.

Suns 2010-11 offense:

Suns 2011-2012 offense:

(click on either picture to make it bigger and readable)

One glaring difference between these two offenses sticks out. The field-goal % on spot-ups has dropped precipitously. And because such a large part of the Suns offense is the "kick out 3" (22% of all plays), the overall offensive efficiency has dropped as well.

You saw it in the Laker game. It happened so often I started making sound effect, out loud, in an otherwise empty room. Doink...Doink, doink...doink...! All those missed OPEN jump shots. Ugh. If that were a drinking game, I wouldn't have been able to coherently write the recap.

So if you're wondering why retread Michael Redd is playing so many minutes, this is it. Someone has to hit some shots. Yet, so far he's worse than most. At least his shots are smart (as opposed to Brown, Price and Telfair), but he's still not making them any more than they are.

Nash is Nash, and Gortat is Gortat. They are deadly in the pick-and-roll, compared to the rest of the league. However, if the defense overplays them and leaves a shooter open, the Suns are not making them pay like in years past.

Who has been the biggest culprit, you ask?

As we've all said this year: the Suns second unit is abysmal, especially the backup shooters

Jared Dudley is making shots comparable to last season, and actually so is Frye, in spot-up situations. But the rest of the wing players just can't hit spot-up shots with any regularity. In the past, the Suns had a plethora of shooters who couldn't defend. Now the Suns have a group of guys who are marginally better at defense but can't shoot.

What else sticks out at you in those offensive numbers?

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SUNS have no players who can score big

Every game the SUNS have the radio and TV commentators always talk about one or two guys on the other team, ‘You gotta watch this guy, if you let him get goin’, he is goin’ to burn you bad on 3’s’. ’can’t let him get his confidence, he scored 32 against Oklahoma last week’ etc.

Fact is, the SUNs have no one similar. SUNS have no explosive offensive players. We have no 20 PPG player. JRich used to fill the role of a dangerous offensive threat, we have no one even remotely similar now. Hill, Redd and Brown, when they are hitting, are our only players capable of some effectiveness in one on one play. Frye could go one on one more often, and go to the hoop after a fake shot, but he prefers to stand at the 3 point line. Meanwhile most of the time Nash and Gortat seem to have 3 guys swarming over them.

Dudz has hit for 20 twice, and his tops on 3’s is 3 of them in a game 3 times. On average, Dudz takes 3 3’s and hits one per game. Frye takes a little more, 4 a game, makes a little more than one. Dudley averages 11 PPG, our third leading scorer.

Frye made 4 3’s twice, we won one and lost the other game (ML and HOU). Frye averages 9 PPG. You can’t win games with a 15PPG guy (Gortat) a 14 (Nash), Dudz (11) and a bunch 9 or under. You need one or two guys who can light it up and hit for 30 now and then, and Nash is the only SUN who has hit 30+ this year. Frankly, our talent level stinks. Frye frankly, doesn’t seem to aspire to be a more complete player, driving to the hoop, working the low post, and Dudz seems on the downhill slide from previous seasons. Morris could be a big scorer but it will take off-season work, and a couple of years experience. Along that line neither Dudley nor Frye seem to have done anything off-season to improve their game.

by Catamaran1 on Feb 19, 2012 9:30 AM MST reply actions 1 recs

just as a minor rebuke of your ‘no big time scorer’ argument as the reason for the Suns’ demise: In 2005-06, the Suns had no big-time scorer either. They had several guys over 10 PPG and only one over 20 (Marion), but his were in the paint on cuts and fast breaks (he hit only 33% on 3s that year). The only way those several guys got over 10 PPG was because they could hit the spot-up 3 ball – Raja Bell, Eddie House, etc.

Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun

by Alex Laugan on Feb 19, 2012 10:01 AM MST up reply actions

good point yet..

…‘big time scorer’ doesn’t have to mean 38 points, in 05-06 the SUNS had 6 guys scoring over 11 PPG, now they have 3. Most of those 6 in 05-06 could ‘do damage’ with 20 point + games, and even some 28-30+ point games in the group. It’s a rare day Dudley hits for 20, and rarer still for Frye, and forget 25+ for Dudz or Frye. Nash was also 5 years younger of course.

When the SUNS get down, this limits comeback opportunity. Of course, their D doesn’t help either.

by Catamaran1 on Feb 19, 2012 11:44 AM MST up reply actions

Good points.

It’s much harder to stop seven guys scoring double figures than two or three. Much better balanced scoring is needed to win consistently.

by Stanley B on Feb 19, 2012 3:55 PM MST up reply actions

Rebounding?

With all those doinks; shouldn’t are second chance points via long rebounds improve?

by Think about it on Feb 19, 2012 10:45 AM MST reply actions

Hey, Alex...

If that were a drinking game, I wouldn’t have been able to coherently write the recap.

Might I make a recommendation.?.?.?

"The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
"In the long run the pessimist may be proved right, but the optimist has a better time on the trip."
Don't trade Beavis

by haremoor on Feb 19, 2012 10:59 AM MST reply actions 1 recs

What this looks like to me

What surprises me the most
%score
1. Cut
2. P&R man
3. Oreb
4.Transition
5. Post up

Some of those are obvious. For a team to be good, OREB and Transition should have high score. aside from that out best is when players cut to the basket 7.5, PnR 7.9%, and post up 10.8%. All of these numbers need to go up. These are our bread and butter statistically, and yet we devote 21.4%(highest singe category) to spot up plays. We really don’t have a roster filled with spot up players anymore.
I fear though this wont change until Nash is gone. That’s because it the offence that Nash runs. PnR and penetrate and kick out. The PnR part we excel at. It should be PnR, Cutting to basket, or post up. maybe a spot up but more on occasion.

by Will Smith on Feb 19, 2012 11:13 AM MST reply actions

The problem there is the spot up is a part of the P&R offense.

We can’t stop taking spot-up jumpers. You’re right that it will always be this way as long as Steve is running the show.

Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!

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by Omaha Sun on Feb 19, 2012 11:08 PM MST up reply actions

The main thing that sticks out to me is

how Offensive they really are! We didn’t get rid of many guys who would shoot the spot up, just Carter and Pietrus.So is the Lock out to blame or did Time take a bigger bite out of some guys than was expected? It seems to me that Dudley & Frye have dropped off on efficiency….maybe not as dramatically as I thought. Telfair and Price have been major disappointments shooting wise and seem to be as good a fit as Shaq was. (not very) Too much walk it up and iso’s, not enough use of screens & beating their man to draw secondary D for a kick out or cutter. I could go on, but Ben Franklin quotes start coming to mind. Can’t wait for the game tonight. One game can change a season.

by Stanley B on Feb 19, 2012 3:51 PM MST reply actions