NBA Scoring Volatility: How Do Gortat And Nash Stack Up Against The Best
by Seth Pollack on Feb 2, 2012 10:29 AM MST
in Phoenix Suns News
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PrintThere's a lot of ways to "count" and use "mathematical tricks" to create "statistics" that measure the relative performance of various players. We count their points to determine scoring leaders. We average their shooting rates to determine efficiency. We use regression analysis to measure the correlation between shoe size and points per possession to calculate their Podiatric Efficiency Determinant (PED).
OK, I made the last one up but come on, how awesome would that stat be!
PEDs aside, SB Nation's NBA National Editor Tom Ziller put his big brain to the task and came up with another way to look our our NBA heroes. He measured scoring volatility to demonstrate consistency:
On Volatility Among The NBA's Top Scorers: How Valuable Is LeBron James' Consistency? - SBNation.com
I borrowed a trick from finance: I took the standard deviations of the players' game-by-game scoring totals and divided by their scoring average. This gives us a volatility rating
Ziller used his newest number trick to compare the NBA's top ten scorers and come up with a chart (of course) that has Carmelo Anthony on one end with a 44% volatility rating and LeBron James on the other end with a 20.8%.
In this case, the lower number is better because that means a player is giving a more consistent and predictable scoring result.
Would you rather have Melo, who has big games some nights and games with just one point? Or LeBron, who's going to give you a steady number each night?
Or, would you rather have Josh Childress, who will sit on the bench and not play at all for eight games and then come in and give you four points? Obviously, you would rather have Josh since that's the most consistent result with the least amount of volatility.
So how do the Suns scoring stars compare to the league's best?
Read on and your question that I just inserted into your mind using mind tricks and dream manipulation will be answered...
Marcin Gorat 2012: 38.2%
Marcin Gorat 2011 (w/ the Suns): 43.2%
Steve Nash 2012: 48.7%
Steve Nash 2011: 42.2%
And now some homework for you...Answer these questions in essay form in the comments below.
- How do you think Gortat and Nash compare with their peers?
- Why do you think Nash's volatility this year is so much higher than last year?
- What did you think of the ending of the movie Inception?
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I laughed a lot at PEDs
Hey- Don't Blame ME
Much more activity from escape goat recently
I guess with a 8-13 record that’s to be expected.
BAMF goes HAM.
by brian13 on Feb 2, 2012 12:38 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Nash is more volatile because of minor injuries and less constant teamates
Before he could always rely on guys like stat and j-rich to score alot of points so he didnt find himself having switch between not shooting and taking over the whole game.
and leonardo decaprio was obviously back in reality becuase the triangle thing wobbled
i think he came back to the real world as well
"SIR ALEX FERGUSON" Greatest Manager of all time
To put it quite simply...
Just because Steve Nash has that "dirty hipster" look doesn't mean he's in need of a shower. Steve Nash bathes in the tears of his victims on a nightly basis.
Mark of a Beast, baby. Mark of a Beast.
I don't think you can glean anything
from the Nash numbers, unless you determine the volatility of his assists totals.
To say that Gortat has a 41% volatility implies that he is not a reliable scorer in terms of “you always get x from Gortat”
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
a 41% volatility with Gortat means about +/- 10 points (ie. he will give you 10-20 points a game, averaging 15).
This volatility thing tasts like a dollop of mularky wrapped up in a hogwash tortilla.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
This volatility thing tasts like a dollop of mularky wrapped up in a hogwash tortilla.
Wanna go grab some? My treat.
Just because Steve Nash has that "dirty hipster" look doesn't mean he's in need of a shower. Steve Nash bathes in the tears of his victims on a nightly basis.
Mark of a Beast, baby. Mark of a Beast.
With Gortat
We also have to factor in the injury. Once healthy I think he has been much more consistent
Fan of the TEAM not a player.
by Suns Fan For Life on Feb 2, 2012 1:41 PM MST up reply actions
I see your hogwash and mularky
And raise you a balderdash and poppycock.
Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo
I think I can explain Nash's rather high volatility...
This volatility rating is flawed in the sense that it only calculates a players scoring to determine their consistency. But there is much more to the story than just scoring…There’s rebounds, assists, minutes played, etc…
For Nash, who is not a score-first guard, calculating his scoring volatility isn’t really fair because if he has games where he barely shoots it’s because he is busy setting up his teammates. Other nights he may realize that he needs to take the game over, like last night, so he will score more than usual.
Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from Gilbert, AZ.
Follow me on Twitter: @thereal7footer
If he was paying attention
Other nights he may realize that he needs to take the game over, like last night, so he will score more than usual.
he would realize he needs to do this every night with this team…
It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.
by Jim Coughenour on Feb 2, 2012 1:11 PM MST up reply actions
Nash would tell you he scores when the defenses play the pick and roll in such a way as to take away the roll man and stay home on the shooters. When teams rotate a third defender , he passes. Pretty simple really.
Twitter me at: @sethpo
Pretty simple really.
simple in theory. But few NBA players can master it.
Blogging Suns Basketball at Bright Side of the Sun
What I'm suggesting
is that the Suns need Nash to score more.
In 4 of the 8 wins this year, Nash was the leading scorer in the game (both teams). Nash has never been the game’s leading scorer in a loss. The Suns are 4-0 when Nash is the game high scorer.
In 05-06 when Amare was out, Nash set a career high for scoring while dishing out his second lowest total of assists since returning to Phoenix. That’s what the team needed.
I think this team also needs the scoring Nash.
It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.
by Jim Coughenour on Feb 2, 2012 4:03 PM MST up reply actions
I don’t think he can do it every night….and certainly not long into the season.
Twitter me at: @sethpo
The two smartest guys on BSoS. are both correct.
Nash does need to score more BUT he can’t do it every night. Wow, such a simple explanation of this year’s team. Like I said, you guys are smart.
I defer to Seth.
And to anyone else who was able to tie their shoes this morning without the asistance of a “how to” youtube video or could spell athleticism before drinking two cups of coffee.
It was only called the mildly irritated house on McDowell until I showed up.
by Jim Coughenour on Feb 3, 2012 8:40 AM MST up reply actions
Seth, you're great but this answer is so weak.
So Nash only can score in one way? It’s never that simple.
Having watched Nash all these years, I think we have a pretty good feel for what he can and can’t do. On occasion he’ll fool his guy and get to the hoop. Sometimes he’ll shoot off a screen IF the defender goes under and gives him the space. But what he doesn’t do (and certainly less and less as the years go on) is create shots in isolation situations.
He’s the master of using screens and reacting to the defense but he’s just not a guy who’s going to force the issue and take 20 shots regardless. That’s not his game and unfortunately, over the last few years as the season grinds on his ability to finish in the lane and even shoot efficiently when left open has declined. The guy is 38 after all.
The Suns need someone who can score consistently on their own but Nash just can’t be that guy or don’t you think he would do it?
Twitter me at: @sethpo
No.
It was crap. Correct, but crap nonetheless.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Read my thoughts on Creighton University athletics at Creightonian.com
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
Exactly.
Nash isn’t a “scorer”, per se. How many times have we seen him have a huge offensive game while scoring 8 or 10 points and dishing out a crazy number of assists? By this measure, Nash has been “inconsistent”. Balderdash! Poppycock!
The problem with this stat is that it uses as its foundation points scored per game, which is a terrible measure of value. Use PER or PPP or something better as the foundation, and we might be on to something.
I mean, hey, Shannon Brown could be a consistent scorer. If it usually takes him 10 FGAs to score 8 points, on an especially bad shooting night he could take 20, score the same 8 points and BOOM! Kudos to Shannon Brown for consistency.
Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo
3 answers
1. Nash and Gortat are great/good players on a lousy team. I’d put them against the best as a 2 on 2 and they’d do quite well.
2. Nash’s volatility is due to injuries and feeling out the team. I think that volatility will shrink as the year goes on.
3. The ending of inception was as much a cop-out as the entire film. It was both interesting to watch and yet said very little. Because of the lack of character development, I’m not sure I cared whether he was still in a dream or not.
Grant Hill for prez.
by sun-arc on Feb 2, 2012 12:59 PM MST via mobile reply actions
I think if Nash and Gortat could score together maybe 45-50 points a game
then we would win more games than we usually do this season. That would also mean less assists from Nash which I don’t think he would be happy with. The only reason I said that is because everyone besides those two are inconsistent. No point passing it to a player if they’re just gonna throw brick shots.
By the way, I notice we play the Bucks this month…I’ll be so upset if we lose that game. That’s the only winning streak record we have left since the Toronto one got destroyed this season.
Twitter: @FredLegittt
the OP..
kind of lost me when he said you would obviously rather have Josh Childress than Carmelo Anthony.
To me this volatility rating is totally useless without context. Carmelo Anthony takes tons of hard shots to bail out the offense.
Josh Childress makes open layups when he gets them at that is that.
Gortat should have a really low volatility rating really because he is assisted on over 80% of his baskets. He gets tons of easy shots consistently from the PNR with Nash. He doesn’t really create shots.
So finishers should definitely have a lower rating than creators in general.
Problem with Melo is that he
takes tons of hard shots even when the offense needs no bailing out.
He just likes to shoot with four hands in his face :)
Feed the cutter!!!
by Piotr Szczesniak on Feb 3, 2012 7:01 AM MST up reply actions
Correct.
I don’t know how many comments were made about the ball-stopping and quick sots and the Knicks needing to move the ball from side to side more in last night’s game.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Read my thoughts on Creighton University athletics at Creightonian.com
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
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