Phoenix Suns Vs. Golden State Warriors Game Preview
by Wil Cantrell on Feb 22, 2012 11:25 AM MST
in Phoenix Suns: Game Coverage
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PrintTonight your Phoenix Suns look for their 3rd victory in a row, while hoping to enter the All Star break with some sort of momentum for the second half of the season. The Suns enter tonight's game winners of two straight over the Lakers and Wizards, while the Warriors are enjoying a rare victory over a quality squad in the L.A. Clippers. Ekpe Udoh was the hero Monday night, starting in place of the disappointing Andris Biedrins, hitting for a career high 19 points.
The Golden State Warriors haven't won in Phoenix for 7 (seven) years. However, the Suns and Dubs have split the season series thus far, with the Bay City Rollers winning the last matchup on their home court. It was a typical Suns effort: start strong-waver-fight back-fade. While Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry were held in check, David Lee was huge, with 28 and 12 in 41 minutes. In the first matchup back in January, the Suns used a balanced attack to defeat the Warriors in the desert. And yes, Lee was out ill and the Suns outrebounded the Dubs 49-36 overall, with the Suns picking up 16 offensive boards.
Now at the halfway point of the season and the All Star break beginning tomorrow, the players and coaches are asessing the season thus far along with hopes for a second half run at the playoffs. Here's what some of the boys had to say recently:
Grant Hill (on 9 straight at home, 6 against squads with sub .500 records)
"You can go into the break feeling good about yourself. Things happen when you have some momentum. In spite of how we've played thus far, if we can get this win (Wednesday night) -- which is a very winnable game... we'll see what we can do when we get back...we did it a couple years ago. I've been on teams where you're rolling into the break and feeling good and get some confidence. You get re-energized, refocused and healthy. You get some rest and you're ready to go when you get back so it's a big game for us."
"Like Steve (Nash) said, we're not talented enough to just cruise and turn it on and off. We have to play a certain way the whole game and get into a rhythm."
"Obviously, it'd be nice to go on a three-game win streak after the (four-game) losing streak. Hopefully, we can come out of the break with those three wins and feel like we can turn the corner."
"Coach has led the charge in being positive. He's consistent day in and day out as far as his mood. He's always upbeat. That plays big throughout the team. "
Quotes courtesy of AZCentral/Paul Coro
Playoff Probability
The Warriors and Suns have similar records and have some similar challenges in the Pacific Division. Both squads are in the negatives in scoring and rebounding differential. The Warriors do have the advantage in three point shooting and Dave Chappelle appearances, nevertheless, both teams are currently on the outside of the WC playoff race.
The geniuses over at Basketball-Reference have crunched the numbers to create a "Playoff Probability Report." The stat geeks ran 1000 simulations of the remainder of the season and came up with some interesting projections:
| RK | TEAM |
W | L | W-L% | CURRENT | REMAIN | BEST | WORST | PLAYOFFS | DIVISION | TOP SEED | WIN CONF | WIN FINALS | WIN LOTTERY |
| 12 | WARRIORS | 28.7 | 37.3 | .435 | 12-17 | 17-20 | 40--26 | 19-47 | 4.3% | 0.1% | 2.0% | |||
| 13 | SUNS | 27.9 | 38.1 | .422 | 14-19 | 14-19 | 36-30 | 21-45 | 2.0% | 0.2% | 1.7% |
Here's what these numbers stand for:
•W and L are the average number of wins and losses, respectively, that the team had in the 1000 simulations.
•Current is the team's curent W-L record.
•Remain is the team's projected W-L record the remainder of the season.
•Best is the team's best W-L record in the 1000 iterations.
•Worst is the team's worst W-L record in the 1000 iterations.
•Playoffs is the percentage of times the team made the playoffs in the 1000 iterations.
•Division is the percentage of times the team won their division in the 1000 iterations.
•Top Seed is the percentage of times the team was the top seed in their conference in the 1000 iterations.
•Win Conf is the percentage of times the team won the conference playoffs in the 1000 iterations.
•Win Finals is the percentage of times the team won the NBA Finals in the 1000 iterations.
•Lottery is the percentage of time the team won the draft lottery in the 1000 iterations.
The Takeaways (all based on 1000 simulations)
- The Suns best possible record will be 36-30, their worst, 21-45
- The Suns projected record is 28-38
- The Suns made the playoffs 2% of the time, and won the division 0.2% of the time.
- The Suns won the lottery 1.7% of the time.
Happy joy, right? I guess not. I post these numbers partially out of fun, but we all know that the numbers don't always tell the whole story or all of the truth. That's why they play the game, folks.
Check for the game thread 30 minutes prior to game time.
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Nice
I feel that the Suns may be playing themselves into that awkward middle spot where they don’t quite make the playoffs but aren’t bad enough to get a good pick. Anyone else with me on this? Is there any “bright side” beyond the fact that we are every once in a while?
"We never tried Amar'e, Nash, and a live Grizzly bear." -Scott Howard, January 18, 2010
"All they’re fighting for is to stay as obscenely rich as they are now, based on their ability to bounce a ball and throw it in a hole." East Bay Ray, October 10, 2011
"the players and owners are squabbling over how to divide the pie that WE BAKE FOR THEM." East Bay Ray, October 31, 2011
We have a lot of guys who are playing a lot better lately, esp Dudz and Frye. Redd is coming in and making a difference. Morris is playing well. Huge weakness is backup PG. If Brooks or someone comes in and plays well, we absolutely could achieve that 36-30 and a playoff berth.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Feb 22, 2012 1:28 PM MST up reply actions
Not to mention if Rolo ever got his head out of his ass. Will either of these happen? Probably not, lol.
by BringBackBarkley17 on Feb 22, 2012 1:29 PM MST up reply actions
Brooks
Wont be coming back. I’ll bet anyone a code red Mountain Dew.
Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx
by Wil Cantrell on Feb 22, 2012 1:30 PM MST up reply actions
I believe we can now quantify what it means to be a treadmill team
The Suns made the playoffs 2% of the time.
The Suns won the lottery 1.7% of the time.
Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."
All the more reason for the tank advocates to stop with the trade Nash nonsense.
Just because Steve Nash has that "dirty hipster" look doesn't mean he's in need of a shower. Steve Nash bathes in the tears of his victims on a nightly basis.
Mark of a Beast, baby. Mark of a Beast.
by NashMV3 on Feb 22, 2012 12:09 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I don't follow
It would seem that with Nash, neither number will get better.
Without Nash, the second number might get better.
I’m not a fan of rebuilding the fan through “luck” and “hope” but I think that these numbers strengthen their arguments, not weaken them.
Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."
rebuilding the franchise*
Steve Nash, the league's MVP, is a longhaired Canadian who spoke out against the war in Iraq and reads The Communist Manifesto. Quentin Richardson declared after a game-winning shot that it "was like Hamlet. It was a suspense thriller, and I killed them at the end." Amare Stoudemire, when asked to comment on a 22-point third quarter against the Kings, said, "I've got a tendency to jump over some guys' heads and throw it down."
How might that second number get better?
We have almost NO chance of getting a higher draft pick at this point. Even if we lose every single game going forward. Either our players get better over night or we’re heading for a mediocre 13-14th pick again.
The only real reason to trade Nash is for a top 5 pick (unlikely) or for some kind of returned value (good players or raw young talent). The first isn’t very likely, and I don’t really know what we could get for him that would excite me all that much.
Might as well just keep him, hire him on as a coach next season if he retires and then try to use our money for some free agents. Maybe Jeremy Lin (sarcasm) and a backup of Dragic or Barbosa.
Never lowercase the SUNS in Phoenix SUNS!
1st Apostle of Lin
Hey, guys?
It’s a Game Preview, not a Season Critique.
"The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
"In the long run the pessimist may be proved right, but the optimist has a better time on the trip."
Don't trade Beavis
Hey, wax!
Haven’t seen you in forever!
"The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
"In the long run the pessimist may be proved right, but the optimist has a better time on the trip."
Don't trade Beavis
Yeah...me too.
I miss the old days. You know, when we were good?
"The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
"In the long run the pessimist may be proved right, but the optimist has a better time on the trip."
Don't trade Beavis
I'll see your sniff, and raise you a sob and a choke.
"The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
"In the long run the pessimist may be proved right, but the optimist has a better time on the trip."
Don't trade Beavis
Please
Do not let David Lee destroy us again. I have the utmost confidence that Ellis will be BAMF’d.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
he so got on a roll
We need to keep him from getting on a roll – maybe play Gortat on him exclusively?
Probably have to
Although i do remember him guarding him a decent amount of the time last game too.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
Wasnt it gortat who let him own us?
Lee played center most the last game. No one was stoping him
"Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose"
by phxpurple on Feb 22, 2012 4:22 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Mostly because of those help defense schemes
Gortat and frye were out of position most of the time…
Feed the cutter!!!
by Piotr Szczesniak on Feb 22, 2012 4:54 PM MST up reply actions
from a Warriors fan
I think that either Gortat or Frye will be fine on Lee, as long as they make him pay on the defensive end, either on the block (the Polish Hammer), or from deep
Lee is a pretty reliable double-double machine. And because our starting center sucks sweaty balls, we have begun to see Lee at the 5, especially to close games.
The big caveat here is that Udoh was a monster in his first start last game, expect him to get more minutes tonight
"I am very worried about the Warriors"
-brutusbrutus
by Duby Dub Dubs on Feb 22, 2012 5:30 PM MST up reply actions
I wonder what goes through Sarver's head when he looks at the Suns record?
If he is ashamed to even look Hill or Nash in the face, ya know, for not providing any talent with them?
To be fair
Its babby and banks who should feel bad.
“lightning in a bottle”
“we felt both players needed a fresh start”(dragic brooks trade)
All these lateral and counterintuitive moves they keep pulling.
Oh well go suns! Lets take back that supremacy over GS. And if the game is close in the end put in REDD NOT DUDS
"Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose"
by phxpurple on Feb 22, 2012 2:24 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
In keeping with Alvin's suggestion that the fans need to do more to help the team...
I am planning to scream at my television set throughout the fourth quarter and I expect you all to do the same.
I'm Michael Beasley's imaginary friend.
by suns68 on Feb 22, 2012 1:24 PM MST via mobile reply actions
check.
altho im more of a whiner, as in, “why, why Robin can’t you hit a free throw?”
Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx
by Wil Cantrell on Feb 22, 2012 1:29 PM MST up reply actions
Like this?
Blogging Suns basketball for Bright Side of the Sun from California wine country.
Twitter: @EastBayRaymundo
by East Bay Ray on Feb 22, 2012 2:31 PM MST up reply actions
kind of? altho id have a drink in my hand.
Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx
by Wil Cantrell on Feb 22, 2012 3:01 PM MST up reply actions
I always feel that fans can do more to help a team.
We all saw what happened to the Warriors in the first round of 06-07.
Never lowercase the SUNS in Phoenix SUNS!
1st Apostle of Lin
That said it's VERY hard to get SUNS fans to join you...
I felt like a total dumbass back in December. I was sitting in the lower level trying to get people to chant “Let’s go SUNS!” I had 1 guy joining with me and a bunch of old people glaring at me. …A lovely couple off to my left were actually just reading books during the game. …Can’t say I’ve been more baffled, it was in stark contrast to my previous experience at this game:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPYB4U6kQbc#t=17s
Never lowercase the SUNS in Phoenix SUNS!
1st Apostle of Lin
so wil gets on his soap box…
the fans nowadays are not the fans from the madhouse on mcdowell. i remember that place getting deafening loud.
that was during a time before corporate boxes, the influx of people who moved here from New Jersey and CA, everywhere in between (before AZ was a desirable destination other than to old people).
I only go to games to cover them or if i get free tickets. To the point, I think a lot of people in attendance arent Suns “fans.” Its a social event for a lot of people. It’s like LA or Miami, people go there to be seen.
Another factor to consider is the lockout, the lack of attendance, and a team with a poor home record. add all that stuff up and its a recipe for half-assed cheering.
Blogging Suns Basketball. Twitter: @willcantrellphx
by Wil Cantrell on Feb 22, 2012 3:07 PM MST up reply actions
All valid points
Phoenix needs a revival. A young face to rally around.
Nash + new franchise player = ticket sales
"Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose"
by phxpurple on Feb 22, 2012 3:10 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
I just don't know what can be done to change things
An influx of great young talent? I mean the only thing I can think of is the team being good and then people will actually cheer.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
There just needs to be a youth movement
This franchise is old. Not just in players but the fans too. with no championships to our franchise its hard to bring in new fans. Everyone likes a winner so they go to boston miami la okc because theyve one or are on the cusp. Before during the SSOL era we were attracting new fans(like myself) by the style of and were on the cusp(4WCF). Now thats the flash is gone weve lost our biggest selling point to new fans.
Only thing that eill help us is trading for a superstar while keeping nash or drafting someone
"Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose"
by phxpurple on Feb 22, 2012 4:36 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
I don't believe
That having a championship in our history (outside the last 10 years) would matter much for the fan base at this point in time. But yeah, we just need to be good (sadly) to get more rowdy fans at games. I know it isn’t fair to compare our team to the GSW, but they are so freaking loud for such a bad franchise and it makes me jealous a little bit.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
don't be jealous of us
we have suffered so much
It also seems to send the perverse incentive to ownership that as long as we field an entertaining team, the fans are happy
"I am very worried about the Warriors"
-brutusbrutus
by Duby Dub Dubs on Feb 22, 2012 5:32 PM MST up reply actions
Oh trust me
I know it is rough to be a Warriors fan, but I do admire your crowds at games. We have people who tell you to be quiet if you are “too loud”.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
It's so crazy in Oracle that TNT pulled out a decibel reader
to measure the noise level in the 2007 playoffs when the Warriors upset the Mavericks. Saying Bay Area sports fans are passionate doesn’t even begin to cover it. They can be nuts at times haha.
Just because Steve Nash has that "dirty hipster" look doesn't mean he's in need of a shower. Steve Nash bathes in the tears of his victims on a nightly basis.
Mark of a Beast, baby. Mark of a Beast.
It should be freaking loud
I love it when we are good, it can get really loud. Especially in some of our playoff series that we have had. But it is just not consistent enough and that is a shame. I don’t expect every game to be a playoff atmosphere as far as noise, but it would be great if we had a louder crowd consistently.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
Reading a book?
My god……… Some people!!!! That really just upsets me haha, that is a waste of a ticket.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
Yeah.
Here I am visiting Phoenix all the way from Minnesota…sitting in the lower bowl, super expensive tickets, wearing my SUNS jersey and hat, really excited that I get to see one home game this year (instead of against the twolves up here)…and here’s a nice old couple… reading novels.
Way to take the wind out of my sails.
Never lowercase the SUNS in Phoenix SUNS!
1st Apostle of Lin
Well
I know when I want to crack some novels, I say fuck the library and buy some sports tickets….. Nothing makes the reading experience better than sitting in a cheering crowd.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
by Airwave on Feb 22, 2012 5:02 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Sit in the upper level
You can see better down lower, but the fans are better up high.
Tom Leander doesn't understand what "rock bottom" means.
The bright side is
It’s national margarita day!! If the Suns win I’ll be drinking some…if the Suns lose I’ll be drinking a lot!!
Twitter: @FredLegittt
Haha
I didn’t even know there was a national margarita day
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
I didn't either until today haha
Suns season have given me more reason to drink…but at least so far we haven’t gotten 12 turnovers in 15 minutes like the Hawks are doing right now.
Twitter: @FredLegittt
Really?
Wouldn’t margarita day been more appropriate to have been yesterday (Mardi Gras)?
"I don't lift weights because they are heavy, and I don't run because it makes me tired." - Charles Barkley
Perhaps
But any day is a good day for a margarita, because they are delicious.
"If Gortat pulls off a real Dream Shake in-game this year I will shave my head.
Mark my words." Piotr Szczesniak 12/12/11 2:12 PM
Cardinals, Suns, D-backs for life!
I've always seen it as a sissy drink but I would still drink it
I love beer.
Twitter: @FredLegittt
by modernage13 on Feb 22, 2012 11:03 PM MST up reply actions
Anything with tequila in it is not sissy -
It makes me want to fight.
"The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty."
"In the long run the pessimist may be proved right, but the optimist has a better time on the trip."
Don't trade Beavis
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