Now we know we are picking in the lottery's no man's land of 13, we can work out who we should pick and, more interestingly, an overall draft strategy.

ESPN draft dude Chad Ford had a great article a few years ago about Draft tiers. "Here is the basic premise from last year":http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=Tiers-110616

Instead of developing an exact order from one to 60 of the best players in the draft, these teams group players, based on overall talent, into tiers. Then, the teams rank the players in each tier based on team need.

... The rules are pretty simple. A team always drafts its highest-ranked player in a given tier. Also, a team never takes a player from a lower tier if one from a higher tier is available.

I think this system is a really solid one. It helps a team avoid drafting players that fit a need but are a tier lower, and provides a means of ranking similar value players. I have no real idea about any of the picks, but my general feel of what the tiers are looks like this:

Tier 1

Anthony Davis PF

No discussion required.

Tier 2

• Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
• SF Thomas Robinson
• PF Andre Drummond
• C Bradley Beal SG

There can be some debate here - are Drummond and Beal on a par with MKG and Robinson, or is there a 2.5 Tier with Beal and Drummond?

Tier 3

• Harrison Barnes SF
• Jared Sullinger
• C Perry Jones
• PF Terrence Jones SF/PF
• Jeremy Lamb SG

These five are projected as a group that is a bit better than the 6 or so players after them.

Tier 4

• John Henson PF
• Tyler Zeller C
• Damian Lillard PG
• Kendall Marshall PG
• Austin Rivers SG

The end of the lottery has a solid group of players, varying from solid to upside with risks.

Tier 5

• Terrence Ross SG/SF
• Quincy Miller SF
• Moe Harkless SF
• Dion Waiters SG
• Meyers Leonard C
• Arnett Moultrie PF/C
• Marquis Teague PG
• Fab Melo C
• Evan Fournier SG/SF
• Tony Wroten PG/SG

An interesting mix, as these are all flawed players with upside.

Tier 6

• Royce White PF
• Jeff Taylor SF
• Tyshawn Taylor PG
• Orlando Johnson SG
• Andrew Nicholson PF/C
• Festus Ezeli C
• John Jenkins SG
• Doron Lamb SG
• Darius Miller SF
• Jared Cunningham SG
• Draymond Green PF
• Kevin Jones PF

The first round fringe, there are a few players with NBA skills, but all have question marks.

This is the range we will likely pick in, and late in that range as well:

• John Henson PF
• Tyler Zeller C
• Damian Lillard PG
• Kendall Marshall PG
• Austin Rivers SG

This range has 2 NC bigs, an athletic defender and a mobile shooter, 2 PGs and a frosh SG with question marks. There are 15 picks in the top 4 tiers, so we should be able to get one of these players.The question are:

1) Do we want any of these players?

2) Are the tiers accurate and reasonable?