Feb. 22, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns center Marcin Gortat (4) reacts on the court against the Golden State Warriors during the second half at the US Airways Center. The Warriors defeated the Suns 106 - 104. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-US PRESSWIRE.
Today is the day the Phoenix Suns take on the Denver Nuggets in the hypothetical, only-on-paper, win-or-go-home SB Nation NBA30n3 Tournament. The Suns are the underdogs coming into the match-up as a No. 11 seed against the No. 6 seed Nuggets. But now the teams have been judged and the odds are in, and the Suns really are an underdog.
Five judges broke down the match-up, and they have determined that the Suns only have a 34 percent chance to win any one game. I'm a little disappointed in the results, but I am not surprised.
Tom Ziller of SB Nation NBA and Sactown Royalty gave the Suns 5 out of 20 games.
Andrew Sharp of SB Nation gave the Suns 4 out of 20 games.
Sharp echoed Beavis's disbelief that the the Nuggets left Kenneth Faried at home for this team, but he also described the Suns line-up as "pretty impotent." OK.
Steve Perrin of SB Nation NBA and Clips Nation, and the tournament organizer, gave the Suns 9 out of 20 games.
Perrin gives the Nuggets the edge in talent here, but he believes as I do that the Suns' pick-and-roll would be really tough for them to stop.
C.A. Clark of Silver Screen and Roll gave Phoenix 12 out of 20 games.
Wow. The Lakers blogger is the only one that gave Phoenix the upper hand in this match-up. I feel kind of dirty. Either way, Clark echoed Perrin's thoughts and thought that the pick-and-roll would carry the Suns to victory.
J.A. Sherman of Welcome to Loud City gave the Suns 4 out of 20 games.
Sherman says the Suns aren't going to win many games, either in this format or in 5-on-5, with Goran Dragic as their best player. I don't see how Denver has anyone that is so superior to Dragic, but whatever.
Perrin thinks this is one of the most intriguing match-ups in the first round.
Some of these theoretical matchups are pretty straightforward. Two similar teams, where one has a massive talent edge, and we pretty much can imagine what would happen. But this series? Who knows? Gallo defending Gortat? Dragic defending Iggy? If I could pick one first round matchup that I magically get to make happen, this might be it, because I just want to know how it would play out. Which team gets to impose its will?
The Suns are hoping for high numbers. A roll of 67 or higher gives the Suns the win, while anything below that goes to the Nuggets. It's a best two out of three series, so we're going to have to get lucky twice. The winner should be announced at 2 p.m., so make sure to come back then to see if the Suns have moved on.