FanPost

Identifying extra 2014 first round picks


I wasn't underwhelmed with the Suns' draft. Two guys with a lot of upside and potential...but that has all been well analysed, discussed, debated and fought over in the past week on here.


Regardless of who the Suns drafted, I think we were always going to be looking ahead to the 2014 draft. It does seem strange to be scrutinising stuff SO soon after the 2013 draft, but I'm really intrigued as to who may own what come the end of the 2013/14 season.


To recap, (and correct me where I'm wrong as I'm probably going to make a ton of errors in this post), the Suns currently own in the 2014 draft:


2014 - First round

  • Their own pick (likely a top 5 pick)
  • Minnesota's pick IF they make the playoffs (the pick is 1-13 protected)

2014 - Second round

  • Their own pick
  • A pick from Toronto/Sacramento (could become a 2015 pick if Suns desire to swap because Toronto has some protection on it)

The Lakers owe us a first round pick from the St*ve N*sh trade but that comes in 2015 and is 1-5 protected (or 1-3 protected in 2016 and 2017). Just mentioning that, but the focus here is on the 2014 draft.


With that all said, the Suns' situation going into the 2014 draft isn't exactly a disaster. It's way too early to call but with a healthy Love and Rubio, I think the Wolves have enough on their roster to make the playoffs. If we presume they do, then the Suns can basically have two first round picks and two second round picks next year.


If the Wolves do make the playoffs, then that pick (I think) will probably be around the 17-20 range. And don't quote me on this, but it's interesting that the pick is 1-13 protected. What if the Wolves just miss the playoffs and have the best record of all non-playoff teams and thus get the probable 14th pick? Entirely possible.


Picking in the top 5 and then again at the 17-20 range in a much heralded, loaded draft class is pretty solid. But with assets like Gortat and Dudley available, I really think the Suns should try and get another 2014 pick. You can argue that that will result in too many rookies in the same draft class which can lead to all sorts of development issues etc etc, but I think with so much talent on offer, it's a route worth exploring.


Three first round picks in 2014 to go along with Alex Len and Archie Goodwin? That could be very, very promising.


Using RealGM's future draft picks page, I've attempted to identify exactly which teams own 2014 first round picks and which, if any, we could look to acquire in some way, shape or form over the summer or leading up to the trade deadline. This is strictly focusing on the first round only. As I've said, please correct me where I've made mistakes. It'll be useful to have a clear and precise view of who owns/owes what going into the 2014 draft because we are sure to be a big part of it.


Please note that almost all the picks that are protected don't necessarily fall to the teams I've listed in 2014, as they obviously follow on to 2015 and 2016, getting less and less protection on the way, if the protections are/aren't met. I didn't want to get into the specifics of each pick and the likelihood of it changing hands this year.


Anyway, here goes. I've highlighted the teams who have multiple 2014 first round picks:


Atlanta - their own pick, but they can swap it for Brooklyn's if they so desire

Boston - their own pick

Brooklyn - their own pick...but Atlanta has the right to swap their first round picks. So Brooklyn likely has the lesser one

Charlotte - first round pick from Portland (1-12 protected), first round pick from Detroit (1-8 protected)

Chicago - their own pick, first round pick from Charlotte (1-10 protected)

Cleveland - their own pick, first round pick from Sacramento (1-12 protected)

Dallas - no picks

Denver - their own pick (they own a New York first rounder, and will convey the lesser pick to Orlando)

Golden State - their own pick

Houston - their own pick

Indiana - their own pick

Clippers - their own pick

Lakers - their own pick

Memphis - their own pick

Miami - their own pick, first round pick from Philadelphia (1-14 protected)

Milwaukee - no picks

Minnesota - no picks (pick goes to Phoenix (1-13 protected))

New Orleans - no picks

New York - no picks

Oklahoma - their own pick, (edit: first round pick from Dallas (1-20 protected) as well *unlikely*)

Orlando - their own pick, first round pick from Denver (lesser of Denver/Knicks)

Philadelphia - first round pick from New Orleans (1-5 protected)

Phoenix - their own pick, first round pick from Minnesota (1-13 protected) Portland - no picks

Sacramento - no picks

San Antonio - their own pick

Toronto - their own pick

Utah - their own pick

Washington - their own pick


This only adds up to 28 first round picks so there are some errors here (help me correct them in comments).
Besides the Suns, there are five teams who could have multiple first round picks next summer. Let's examine these five.


Charlotte - first round pick from Portland (1-12 protected), first round pick from Detroit (1-8 protected)


Charlotte's own pick is headed to Chicago but is 1-10 protected. Will the Bobcats be one of the 10 worst teams? More than likely. So, they'll probably have their own pick after all. Will Portland be one of the 12 worst teams? Tough call, they could be on the fringes of a playoff spot. Will Detroit be one of the worst 8? Again tough call. Writing this paragraph in particular has made me realise how pointless this entire fanpost is because it's all based on speculation, projection and probably errors galore. But anyway.


The Bobcats will have one, probably two picks. With all the protections, there's no clear cut great pick to acquire here, and I'm not even sure the Bobcats are ideal partners for anything the Suns can offer anyway.


Chicago - their own pick, first round pick from Charlotte (1-10 protected)


The Bulls will probably just wind up with their own pick. They'll probably be a decent team with or without Rose's contribution. Not much to see here.


Cleveland - their own pick, first round pick from Sacramento (1-12 protected)


The theme emerging here is that so many teams own picks from other teams but said teams are rubbish so the protections most likely prevent the picks from changing hands this year. Regardless, Cleveland really intrigues me. They want to make the playoffs this year, and even with how weak the East is, I think they're borderline to make it. There's a lot of youth so it remains to be seen how it pans out. Acquiring Cleveland's pick might not be a bad idea at all. Whether they want/need Gortat or any other Suns asset remains to be seen.


Miami - their own pick, first round pick from Philadelphia (1-14 protected)


With the way the Sixers ended last season, then dumped Holiday for Noel, they are sure to be one of the 14 worst teams this season. No way the Heat will have their pick. Do we want Miami's own pick? It won't be lower than 26, for sure. That's somewhat annoying as Gortat would probably be a great fit for them...not sure how the numbers would work though.


Orlando - their own pick, first round pick from Denver (lesser of Denver/Knicks)


Like the Bobcats, the Magic are unlikely trade partners because they're in the same rebuild boat as the Suns. It'll probably be impossible to get their own pick off them, but that pick that gets conveyed is interesting. I think the Nuggets will be the worse team between themselves and the Knicks and could be worth around 10th pick depending on how badly it goes wrong following all that's happened this summer. Might not be a bad pick to try and grab if the Magic are interested.


Conclusion


Having examined what I think are the teams with possible multiple first round picks, I don't really see an ideal trade partner. If I had to pick one, it would be Cleveland, but how much would they want to acquire Gortat/Dudley or the likes to give up a coveted first round pick? Probably not that.


Instead I look at the teams with just one pick, particularly fringe contenders or playoff calibre teams who may want a boost by acquiring veterans like Gortat or Dudley. However that's a catch-22 situation. Such teams will probably have less valuable first round picks but will be a far more likely trade partner. Best example I can see is someone like the Thunder.


The Suns could probably get a potential third 2014 first round pick somewhere with the assets they have, but from what I can see, it might be tough to get a lottery one. It will be "win now" teams that will be the more likely to do business and everyone else will probably cling on to their own picks for dear life with so much talent coming up.

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