FanPost

Suns Miscellania at 11-19-2014

It's too early to panic, but it's never too early or too late to make a change for the better. And for the Suns, perhaps the time has come.

The Suns' 6-5 record is below expectations, but perhaps it should have been expected based on their line-up changes. The Suns' new rotation may simply need time to see the final pay-off. But in the short term, the Suns have the look of a mediocre team in a stacked Western Conference, and that is worrisome.

There are real problems in the way their recent gameplay, and I'll get to those in a second. And after that, I'll offer some ideas for addressing those issues.

{1} FROM ARC OF TRIUMPH TO ARC OF DEFEAT, PART 1

The Suns offense has stumbled through the first ten games, before coming to life against the defenseless Celtics. A comparison of stats from this season and last season pinpoints a primary culprit: poor 3PT shooting:

o Suns stats in 2013-14: 46.3% FG, 37.2% 3PTFG, 105.2 ppg; 9th in FG%, 8th in 3PTFG%

o Suns stats through first ten games: 44.1% FG, 33.3% 3PTFG, 104.0 ppg; 19th in the NBA in FG%, 18th in 3PTFG%

Last season's Suns were clearly more efficient offensively. Why? I feel it has all to do with the chemistry of having Frye and Tucker as starters.

Last season, Frye shot 37% on threes, and was second most on the team in attempts from the arc.Tucker shot just under 39% on treys. Those are excellent numbers from the SF and PF position. Heck, they're good numbers even for a backcourt. This led opposing teams had to pick their poison: defend the arc, or allow the guards to drive to the basket. And when teams did protect against the three-ball, the Suns' guard could almost penetrate at will.

This season, the Morris brothers are starting, and the 3PT shooting has dropped off considerably. PF Mark Morris is just 33.3% from the arc, and Marc Morris is just 34.1%. Those numbers make it much less of a risk for opponents to close down the lane to stop dribble penetration from the Suns' guards. So the Suns long ball attack is suffering, and the guards are getting less space to attack the rim.

On top of that, the 3PT numbers have dropped sharply for backcourt players Dragic and Green. Compare these numbers for their first ten games (before the win over the Celtics):

o Dragic: 40.8% 3PT in 2013-14; 29.0% in 2014-15

o Green: 40.0% 3PT in 2013-14; 33.3% in 2014-15

The bottom line is, the Suns long-range game has gone south. They have had games where they've looked good from the arc, and other games where they've looked bad. But in the aggregate, the numbers are below average in the 30 team NBA. And that's not good enough, especially when you consider that the Suns are 3rd in the league in 3PT attempts per game. The Suns shoot almost 26 threes a game; only the Blazers and Rockets attempt more from the arc.

You have to make those shots if you're going to take so many of them. And I'm talking to you Isaiah Thomas. You're attempting almost four 3PT shots a game - the third most on the team - and you're only shooting 31.0% from the arc. That's not good enough.

{2} One other culprit in this 3PT meltdown is Anthony Tolliver. The hope was that Tolliver would be a 3PT shooting threat at the PF spot and make us forget Frye. It has not worked out that way.

Tolliver has turned out to be a dud. He shot 41% from the arc last season. But this season, he's shot just 33.3% from the field overall, just 33.3% from the arc, and his points per minute is the lowest among Suns players with more than 9.0 minutes per game.

Perhaps his hand has been slow to heal from a pre-season injury. Perhaps. We can only hope it gets better. Really, he has nowhere to go but up at this point.

{3} FROM ARC OF TRIUMPH TO ARC OF DEFEAT, PART 2

One other serious problem for the Suns is their defense against 3PT shots. Let's look at the Suns' defensive stats, for last year and through the Suns' first 10 games:

o Suns defensive stats in 2013-14: 45.6% FG, 34.1% 3PTFG, 102.6 ppg; 14th in the NBA in defensive FG%, 2nd in defensive 3PTFG%

o Suns defensive stats through first the first 11 games: 45.9% FG, 38.5% 3PTFG, 105.8 ppg; 19th in the NBA in FG%, 25th(!!!!!) in defensive 3PTFG%

The Suns have gone from being the 2nd best team at defending 3PT shots, to being one of the worse. The Suns are allowing almost one extra 3PT shot made per game compared to last season. That's 3 extra points per game they're allowing - and their average point differential through their first 11 games is -0.5 ppg. The Suns average differential could go up 3 pts if they could do a better job defending threes.

I live on the East Coast and do not get tomes all the Suns games. But I have a suspicion that Marc Morris might not be a good fit defensively as starting SF. He is probably not as good a perimeter player as former SF starter PJ Tucker. It's something to think and worry about.


{4} SHAKE IT UP

What would I do? It's way too early to contemplate trades. But I would juggle the line-up a bit. Here are my suggestions:

(a) Put PJ Tucker in the starting line-up. He's shooting 40.0% from the arc, the best on the team so far. That might help with long ball scoring and floor spacing. Also, he might improve the Suns' defense against opponent's three-point shooting.

(b) Put Marc Morris back into his role as a PF off the bench. Marc can provide some spacing for the Suns bench guards (Thomas and Green), and his short range jumper can be a help also.

(c) Play TJ Warren at backup SF. This is a radical change, but it must be considered. Warren is a rookie, and he and the Suns will suffer growing pains if he gets more minutes. But his talent as a scorer, if it manifests, can really help. The big thing is, he scores at a very efficient rate. And the Suns can use somebody who can do more than just chuck shots from the 3PT line.

(d) Start Len over Plumlee. Again, this is a radical change, but it must be considered. I will be honest, Len is not ready to be a starting center. His inexperience shows. But then too, he has shown flashes that Plumlee has not. I think Plumdog has a better motor and is a better run/jump athlete, but Len will be the better basketball player in the long run. The Suns may as well stop prepping him for his role as a starter, and just put him in that role now.

Now, here's the thing: in the short term, these moves might not help much. Warren is a rookie, Len is virtually a rookie. The Suns might lose games as these young guys develop. But by the end of the season might be a better team, one that could grab a 7th or 8th seed in what looks to be an ultra-competitive Western Conference.

{5} DID YOU KNOW: Last season, the Suns shot 75.8% from the foul line, which ranked 17th in the Association. Through 11 games this season, the Suns are shooting 82.5% from the line, which is excellent. Dragic, Thomas, Green, and Len(!!) are all shooting in the 87-91% range from the foul line. Bledsoe is shooting a respectable 82%. The Suns stand to win a few close games this season if they can keep up this high shooting rate, but it's bound to come down over time...

Last season, Dragic led the team in points per shot, averaging 1.41 pps for the season. The early leaders this season among players averaging at least 10 minutes are Alex Len with 1.51 pps, and Isaiah Thomas with 1.41 pps. Len's numbers are due to high percentage shooting. Thomas' number are due to his ability to get to the line.