FanPost

Trading for an upgrade over Plumlee? Poll included!

Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sport

How does Plumlee compare with Sanders, Asik, Chandler and Mozgov, all potentially on the trade block?

Two of the main problems of the Suns team this year were interior defense and rebounding. In this post, I compare the advanced stats of Miles Plumlee with those of Timofey Mozgov, Larry Sanders, Tyson Chandler and Omer Asik. I chose those centers because they have relatively good defensive stats/reputations and because their teams have reasons to be open to trading them, without demanding a king's ransom in return. Others didn't seem realistic.

By comparing their advance stats to Plumlee's, it offers an additional insight as to how good/bad Plumlee has been this season and how much, if any, upgrade we could realistically get at the center position this off-season, especially without breaking the bank.

Besides the advanced stats, this post contains a brief analysis as to why these four players could be traded this summer. The post contains none/very little analysis or opinion of mine as to whom, if any, should be pursued, since the post is already quite long as it is.

I used data/stats from mysynergysports.com, nba.stats.com and basketball-reference.com. Sanders' stats are from the 12/13 season where marked with **, since he played only 22 games this year due to injuries and suspensions. Asik's stats might be misleading, considering he mostly played against backup centers or at the PF spot, and the stats aren't differentiated between those and stats against starting centers.

I also included Robing Lopez and Samuel Dalambert as the "control group"/yardstick, and occassionally the statistical "best" player in certain areas. Lopez is included because he has been making a reputation as one of the better defensive/rebounding centers in the league, and Dalembert because he has a reputation as being a good defensive center in the non-top tier of the centers.

Honourable mentions for players that were available and could have been analysed as potential upgrades over Plumlee are Emeka Okafor and Spencer Hawes, both free agents.

As always, I apologize in advance for any errors and thank you for any corrections. Thanks also for your time, comments and hopefully your votes. I hope you will enjoy the reading and that the data provided will be useful in (re)shaping your opinions on these players.

PERSONAL PROFILES WITH BASIC INFO AND CONTRACT SITUATION

Age

Height

MPG

PPG

RPG

BPG

Plumlee

25

6' 11"

24.6

8.1

6.9

1.0

Mozgov

27

7' 1"

21.6

9.4

6.4

1.2

Sanders**

25

6' 11"

27.3

9.8

9.5

2.8

Chandler

31

7' 1"

30.2

8.7

9.6

1.1

Asik

27

7' 0"

20.2

5.8

7.9

0.8

Per ESPN.com

Plumlee - http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/plumlmi01.html

Mozgov - http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mozgoti01.html

Sanders - http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sandela01.html

Chandler - http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/chandty01.html

Asik - http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/asikom01.html

Player

Contract

Plumlee

1.17m$ in 14/15, team option for 15/16 (2.1m$), RFA in summer of '16.

Mozgov

4.6m$ in 14/15, team option for 15/16 (4.95m$)

Sanders

11m$ per year, up to and including 17/18

Chandler

14.5m$ in 14/15

Asik

14.9m$ in 14/15 (*cap hit of 8.3m$)

Per http://hoopshype.com/salaries/denver.htm

DEFENSIVE IMPACT

per stats.nba.com , http://tinyurl.com/osope78

Player

GP

MIN per game

STL per game

BLK per game

Total BLK

Opp FGM at Rim per game

Opp FGA at Rim per game

Opp FGP at Rim

Roy Hibbert (IND)

81

29.9

0.4

2.2

182

4.1

9.8

41.4%

Larry Sanders (MIL)

22

25.7

0.8

1.8

39

3.0

7.3

41.6%

Robin Lopez (POR)

82

31.9

0.3

1.7

139

4.4

10.3

42.5%

Timofey Mozgov (DEN)

82

21.7

0.3

1.2

100

3.0

6.4

46.9%

Miles Plumlee (PHX)

80

24.7

0.6

1.1

90

4.1

8.2

50.3%

Tyson Chandler (NYK)

55

30.4

0.7

1.1

63

3.5

6.9

51.5%

Omer Asik (HOU)

48

20.3

0.3

0.8

37

2.8

5.8

47.7%

Samuel Dalembert (DAL)

80

20.2

0.5

1.2

94

3.2

6.1

52.0%

REBOUNDING OPPORTUNITIES

per stats.nba.com , http://tinyurl.com/lkr4qs4

Player

GP

MIN per game

REB per game

Percentage of rebounds per chance

REB Chances per game

Total REB

Contested REB per game

Uncontested REB per game

Contested REB Percentage

Robin Lopez (POR)

82

31.9

8.5

54.2%

15.7

699

4.3

4.2

51.0%

Larry Sanders (MIL)

22

25.7

7.3

59.4%

12.3

161

3.3

4.0

44.7%

Timofey Mozgov (DEN)

82

21.7

6.4

56.0%

11.5

528

2.8

3.6

43.6%

Anthony Davis (NOP)

67

35.4

10.0

64.0%

15.7

673

4.3

5.7

43.2%

Miles Plumlee (PHX)

80

24.7

7.8

56.8%

13.8

626

3.3

4.5

41.9%

Tyson Chandler (NYK)

55

30.4

9.6

65.1%

14.8

529

3.4

6.3

35.0%

Omer Asik (HOU)

48

20.3

7.9

65.6%

12.0

378

3.5

4.3

45.0%

Samuel Dalembert (DAL)

80

20.2

6.8

61.1%

11.1

541

2.9

3.9

42.1%

DEFENSIVE STATS PER MYSYNERGYSPORTS

per mysynergysports.com

Def - Isolation

% of possesions

#of possesions

PPP allowed

Rank

% scored

Plumlee

9.9%

43

0.56

11

25.6%

Mozgov

10.3%

46

0.65

36

32.6%

Sanders**

12.4%

58

0.62

21

31%

Chandler

20.2%

76

0.72

67

32.9%

Asik

17%

44

0.86

167

43.2%

R. Lopez

12.4%

94

0.68

45

34%

Dalembert

10.3%

39

0.62

25

30.8%

Def – post up

% of possesions

#of possesions

PPP allowed

Rank

% scored

Plumlee

50.7%

221

0.83

116

42.5%

Mozgov

40%

179

0.89

161

44.1%

Sanders**

33.1%

155

0.7

43

37.4%

Chandler

30.8%

116

0.84

122

44%

Asik

36.3%

94

0.8

90

40.4%

Lopez

43.9%

333

0.93

192

47.4%

Dalembert

48.7%

184

0.91

177

46.7%

Def – P&R roll man

% of possesions

#of possesions

PPP allowed

Rank

% scored

Plumlee

14.2%

62

0.92

65

41.9%

Mozgov

23.7%

106

0.79

24

38.7%

Sanders**

18.2%

85

0.81

48

40%

Chandler

9%

34

0.88

52

41.2%

Asik

16.2%

42

0.79

24

38.1%

Lopez

18.9%

143

0.92

65

44.8%

Dalembert

11.9%

45

0.98

85

53.3%

Def – spot up

% of possesions

# of possesions

PPP allowed

Rank

% scored

Plumlee

22%

96

0.88

78

39.6%

Mozgov

24.8%

111

1.02

240

42.3%

Sanders**

33.1%

155

1.1

319

49.7%

Chandler

31.6%

119

0.81

28

35.3%

Asik

26.3%

68

0.87

73

39.7%

Lopez

21.4%

162

0.82

33

38.3%

Dalembert

23.5%

89

1.03

255

44.9%

BASKETBALL-REFERENCE.COM ADVANCED STATS

Per Basketball-reference.com - http://bkref.com/tiny/8AoGO (all players with more than 1600 min played and more than 6 rpg, all positions). Defensive "real plus minus" per http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/9 .

Category

Plumlee

Mozgov

Sanders**

Chandler

Asik

Comparison player

BLK%

16th, 3.5%

9th, 4.2%

7.6%

19th, 3.4%

2.8%

Howard, 11th, 4.0%

TRB%

15th, 17.9%

27th, 16.1%

18.6%

10th, 18.7%

21.7%

Davis, 23th, 16.6%

TS%

44th, 52.9%

17th, 58.4%

52.3%

4th, 61.5%

57.0%

Duncan, 39th,53.5%

FT%

54th, 56.1%

26th, 75.4%

61.8%

51st, 63.2%

61.9%

Noah, 32th, 73.7%

ORtg

51th, 104

28th, 111

109

8th, 120

109

M. Gasol, 37th, 108

DRtg

23th, 104

38th, 106

99

42nd, 106

103

Dalembert, 34th, 105

PER

54th, 14.6

38th, 16.7

18.7

41st, 16.4

14.0

Lopez, 33rd, 17.6

DRPM

39th, 1.58

44th, 1.39

2nd, 6.18

12th, 3.79

5th, 4.99

Pachulia, 36th, 1.70

OFFENSIVE END

SHOT CHARTS

Timofey Mozgov shot chart - http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=202389

Miles Plumlee shot chart - http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=203101

Larry Sanders shot chart** - http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=202336&Season=2012-13

Tyson Chandler - http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=2199

Omer Asik - http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=201600

Robin Lopez - http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=201577

Samuel Dalembert - http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=2223

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE BY DISTANCE

per Basketball-reference.com (for example, http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/chandty01/shooting/2014/ ):

Distance in feet

(# of FGA)

Plumlee

Mozgov

Sanders**

Chandler

Asik

2pt overall fg%

51.7%

53.9%

50.7%

59.5%

53.2%

0-3

69.1% (285)

63.7% (306)

63.3% (395)

68.9% (241)

59.7% (179)

3-10

34.1% (208)

40.9% (164)

29.2% (111)

22.5% (40)

27.3% (34)

10-16

31.1% (45)

40.9% (22)

34.4% (67)

30.8% (13)

75.0% (5)

16+ (not 3pt)

26.7% (15)

34.5% (29)

28.3% (63)

44.4% (27)

00.0%

Offense

Post-Up ppp&rank

p&r roll man ppp&rank

Cut

ppp&rank

Off. Reb.

ppp&rank

Plumlee

0.63 (157)

1.11 (32)

1.2 (99)

1.03 (96)

Mozgov

0.8 (103)

1.02 (72)

1.1 (178)

1 (108)

Sanders**

0.62 (153)

1.01 (59)

1.09 (164)

1.1 (83)

Chandler

0.89 (/)

1.23 (8)

1.29 (58)

0.86 (157)

Asik

0.74 (133)

1.07 (46)

1.1 (158)

0.99 (120)

Lopez

0.83 (93)

1.28 (5)

1.27 (70)

0.98 (122)

Dalembert

/

1.08 (43)

1.2 (99)

0.94 (140)

Links for some other non-defense stats:

Speed and distance - http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingSpeed.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=100&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Touches - http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingTouches.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=100&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Passing - http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingPassing.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=100&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Shooting - http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingShooting.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=100&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

WHY COULD THOSE PLAYERS BE AVAILABLE FOR TRADE

Mozgov, Denver

Denver has a logjam at the PF/C positions, with Mozgov usually playing as a backup to McGee, who has been signed to a longterm contract, but due to McGee's injury Mozgov played 30 games as a starter. They have the PF, SF (Gallinari) and PG (Lawson) covered, but they lack a quality starting SG. They don't have lots of cap-space to sign Fas. Thus, they might want to loosen up some cap-space to sign FAs (not many great SG FAs available) by trading away an expendable asset or they might want our picks/assets to be able to sign a quality SG through a (three-team) trade (potentially Afflalo from Orlando, who doesn't need a starting center, as they have Vucevic). They do not have any 1st round picks this year.

Sanders, Milwaukee

Between Sanders on- and off-court problems, big contract, emergence of Henson, Milwaukee's new ownership and an incoming top-quality draft pick, they might be quite willing to move Sanders.

Chandler, Knicks

Might be looking to rebuild this season if Melo leaves and get under the cap (subtracting Melo's and Chandler's salary, they'd have around 54m$ in salaries), get some young players or picks (they don't own a 1st round pick this year) in return for Chandler.

Asik, Houston

Asik has been disgruntled on the bench and is not a natural fit to play alongside Howard as the PF. His 15m salary year (vs. a 8m cap hit) poison pill takes effect this year. They might be looking for assets to use in a trade for a PF, their main position of need, they might be looking to free up cap space to somehow go after Melo, or they might simply be looking for a return on a disgruntled, ill-fitting overpaid contract.

**

A BTW MOMENT REGARDING 2015 CAP:

An obeservation regarding Asik's and Chandler's expiring contracts – if we take one, we have two options, either trade it during the winter trade period or keep it till the summer. If we keep Asik/Chandler till the summer of 2015, we won't be able to trade them then (unless in a S&T). So we would either have to resign them (and potentially overapy them way too much) or let them go for little/nothing. If we let them go in the summer of 2015, we will probably (if we also sign Bledsoe to the max and Tucker to around 5m this summer) be left right around the cap level and won't be able to compete for the main FA available. If we get Sanders and perhaps Gibson as well (11m and 8m cap hits), we could use them in the summer of 2015 to trade them a team whose player we'd like to acquire through a trade or as a FA (through a S&T), combined with our other assests, such as picks.

A FEW ARTICLES

Mozgov:

** http://www.denverstiffs.com/2014/1/22/5333680/analyzing-the-defensive-impact-of-timofey-mozgov

** http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/01/30/timofey-mozgov-the-rise-of-denvers-hidden-gem/

** http://milehighsports.com/2014/04/15/change-coming-to-next-years-nuggets/

Sanders:

**http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9022457/nba-milwaukee-bucks-larry-sanders-defensive-force

**http://hoopchalk.com/2013/03/06/appreciating-the-defensive-depths-of-larry-sanders/

**http://nba.si.com/2014/01/05/larry-sanders-gary-neal-locker-room-argument-bucks-suns/

** http://www.insidehoops.com/blog/?p=14404

** http://nba.si.com/2014/04/05/larry-sanders-marijuana-comments-drug-suspension-milwaukee-bucks/

** http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10642779/larry-sanders-milwaukee-bucks-season-face-injury

Chandler:

** http://www.nba.com/knicks/2013-14-season-review-tyson-chandler

** http://nypost.com/2014/04/18/tyson-chandler-theres-a-lot-wrong-with-knicks/

** http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/knicks/post/_/id/56078/chandler-not-interested-in-rebuild

** http://bucketsoverbroadway.com/2014/04/23/player-evaluation-tyson-chandler/2/

Asik:

** http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/10/15/4830936/omer-asik-defense-video-breakdown-houston-rockets

** https://www.bsports.com/statsinsights/nba/dwight-howard-and-omer-asik-who-is-the-better-defender

** http://www.celticslife.com/2013/12/a-comprehensive-guide-to-omer-asik.html

** http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/14/report-omer-asik-asks-rockets-to-trade-him/

CONCLUSION

What are your ideas on what's the best option for the center position this coming (off)season and beyond? Do you prefer getting another player as the starting center, and if so, which player and at what cost? Does Plumlee go or stay in that case? Or should the Suns stick with Plumlee&Len, perhaps add a 3rd (veteran) center on a minimum contract, and focus on improving the PF position? How would this affect the other moves you'd want the Suns to make this offseason and the next?

I hope you enjoyed reading this post. Thanks again for your time, comments and voting on the poll.

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