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What's Love Got to Do With It? Al Horford is the Bright Side

Al Horford is a better pick-up for the Suns than Kevin Love. Love is widely considered a top 5-10 player while Horford is often ranked in the 20s or 30s, a star but no superstar quite yet if only because of recent injuries. Love supporters point to his elite rebounding, outlet passing and shot from 3 to explain his ideal fit on the Suns. But it appears one of the Warriors, Cavs or Bulls will finally pry him from the Wolves. Charles Barkley-type trade opportunity missed? Let's look closer at Al Horford while making comparisons to Love as a point of reference.

Health - Horford has been sidelined for long stretches in 2 of the last 3 seasons because of pectoral injuries. He tore the left one in the 2011-12 season and the right one last December. This type of injury rarely occurs in the NBA. Two weeks ago during Summer League Coach Bud claimed Al would be healthy for training camp. Most experience slightly reduced strength following surgery and rehab. This is a long-term concern, of course, but Horford is not exactly injury-prone. If on the Suns, he would revert back to his preferred position, PF. The opportunities to injure his upper body diminish the more he plays alongside a strong center.

Offense - Horford can't keep up with the more explosive game of Love. Love's 38% from 3 is at the center of his offensive game. Like Frye, he can space the floor to deadly effect. However, he shoots 41, 35 and 40% respectively from 3-10, 10-16 and 16-23 ft. His 59% TS, then, is a product of the 3 and his ability to score at the rim. With a poor midrange game, I'd expect Love's playoff #s to dip. He is a regular-season stat monster. What about when teams close out on the 3 and can also protect the paint? The Clippers and Spurs, for example, had limited success in slowing him down. Horford by contrast is a stellar midrange player, with 47, 49 and 50% totals in the categories above. Horford stretches the floor, although not like a legit stretch 4. Remarkably, his midrange game improves with distance. This is not a sample size issue, either. In two other years his most efficient midrange shot was 16-23 ft. out. Why does this matter? First, he has a game that translates to a WCF or Finals when defenders can more easily take away a player's primary scoring options. Love feasts in two areas of the floor but struggles with the in-between game; Horford converted 75% of the time at the rim last season and is one of the best midrange players around. As Jermaine O'Neal put it in 2013, "Horford does a really good job of both hitting jumpshots & finding ways to get to the basket." So while Love flashes gaudy stats and a superstar PER, Horford's game should hold up better in the playoffs. We don't know yet how much of Love's game translates to the postseason.

Defense - *If someone has Synergy, feel free to clarify, correct or add to anything written in this section.* On defense Horford has a marked edge over Love. First, as a center he's been forced to play more physical the last few years. Love can mix it up inside, though it's not his preference. Again, playoff games tend to slow down. A timely offensive rebound or matching physical intensity in the post regularly decide a game. Horford has a similar ORR and higher #s for steal and block% than Love. (1 vs. 3.6% for blocks) What about mobility? Besides Joakim Noah, Horford may be one of the top in this respect. Like Noah, he can easily switch onto guards or SFs and stay in front of them. Imagine what this would mean in a playoff series against the Spurs. Parker, Ginobili, Diaw and Kawhi get nothing easy off-screens. On switches when they iso, the Suns' D would be able to hold and recover.

Why would the Hawks trade Horford? The Hawks understand the full value of Horford, so don't expect McD to outfox Danny Ferry. Many believe the Hawks would have upset the #1 seed Pacers if Horford had played. More likely result if Horford had been healthy: the Hawks secure the 4-6 spot. And that's part of the problem. The Hawks are good but well outside great, they're working the dreaded mediocrity treadmill. So it was not shocking to see Horford in trade deadline discussions last year. That's all we've heard, with no direct links to the Suns. The Hawks will likely remain in a tough situation because FAs mostly pass them over. Yet they've quietly set themselves up with talented youth: Dennis Schroeder, John Jenkins, Adreian Payne and Mike Muscala have the potential to develop into very good players. Teague may be on the cusp of stardom. He, Millsap, Korver and Horford form the core. There's little reason to expect significant improvements this year. The Hawks, with a mismatched core of older vets and a crop of prospects, should get younger and prepare for a much brighter future in 3-4 years.

Trade
Phx: Bled, Plumlee and Phx's 2015 1st rd pick for Horford and Jenkins
Chi: Taj, Butler and Dunleavy for Bled and Phx's 2015 pick
Min: Dieng, Budinger and Shabazz for Taj and Plumlee
Atl: Horford and Jenkins for Dieng, Butler, Shabazz, Budinger and Dunleavy.

Suns - Improved roster balance. Horford immediately becomes the focus of opposing bigs, freeing up Len to develop at a more gradual pace.

Bulls
- This is a gamble well worth taking, and the stakes are much higher after this summer. It appears the Bulls will narrowly miss out on Love. (They've reportedly offered Taj, Mirotic and McDermott.) But once the Cavs secure Love, the Bulls should react. The team has again and again prioritized its defense over offense. Bledsoe brings star talent at both ends of the floor. Bled and Rose together can avoid suffocating defenses and the rigors of a long season. Snell and Hinrich round out the backcourt. with a starting 5 of Rose, Bled, McDermott, Gasol and Noah.

TWolves
- The team after this trade remains competitive, an understandable priority for Flip Saunders. A future starting 5 of Rubio, Martin?, Wiggins, Taj and Pek with a decent bench is a fine way to transition out of the Kevin Love era.

Hawks
- Look beyond some short-term redundancy and there's the outline of a Grizzlies-like renaissance. Dieng has elite defensive skills, he's the main reason the Hawks should consider this trade. Teague has just started to realize his potential, Butler can make that jump, too. Hawks fans, so used to highlight reel dunks, have probably grown bored with Bud's disciplined offense. Shabazz, similar to Manu, may be able to bridge those two styles of play. He remains an exciting prospect, and on this team he could play to his strengths. Budinger provides another 3 shooter next to Korver. Altogether, the Hawks choose to wait to contend, retooling for when Teague, Schroeder, Butler, Payne and Dieng can form a contending nucleus.

Notes/Final Thoughts - Chicago and Atlanta may believe they can stand pat. if so, it's a product of misplaced faith. The Bulls still need a young, playoff-tested scorer. Do you trust Gasol to hold up for a full season? Also, Bled's defensive chops somewhat offset the loss of Gibson and Butler. The Hawks seem to believe they can compete out East. Yet they've also approached a team or two about Horford. That suggests they want fair value and a chance to contend in the future, and then, if possible, win in the present. The Hawks should see Dieng and Butler as long-term defensive anchors.

BSOTSers have acknowledged Love as a superstar who immediately launches the Suns into 55-60 win territory. Horford can make that type of impact, as well. Much more encouraging, his style of play can transform the Suns into true contenders out West again.

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