FanPost

The Phoenix Suns Identity Makeover: Grindhouse version 2.0?

Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The Phoenix Suns are in the midst of a remarkable transformation. After spending most of the season as one of the NBA’s best offensive teams, and one of the weaker defensive and rebounding teams, the Suns have a whole new identity. They are now one of the NBA’s best rebounding and defensive teams, and one of the weakest teams offensively, at least until recently.

This new identity has fueled the Suns to a 7-4 record in March. This, after a 3-8 record in February, during which the Suns traded away two of their top four scorers (Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas). Everybody and their mother thought the Suns were ready to collapse. But now Phoenix is rising.

The mega-question is, can their recent success be sustained? I say yes - as long as the Suns keep improving. The potential for a play-off quality Western Conference team is there. But several things need to happen for that potential to be realized.

Table 1: Stats from Prior to the All-Star Break, and for March 2015 suns-stats-part-1-copy.0.jpg

Source: Compiled from http://stats.nba.com; compiled at 3/23/2015 - 3/24/2015 IDENTITY MAKEOVER; GOING FROM BEING OFFENSIVE TO DEFENSIVE

The big news is that the Suns have undergone what amounts to an almost total identity makeover. Before the Goran Dragic/Isaiah Thomas subtraction at the All-Star Break, the Suns were known as a run and shoot team that won with fast break scoring and 3PT shooting. This style of play was facilitated and epitomized by occasionally playing three point guards at the same time; this was the so-called "hydra" line-up.

And it all worked, offensively. At the All-Star Break, the Suns had the NBA’s 7th best Offensive Rating (OffRat = points scored per 100 possessions). This was fueled by the team’s fast-break prowess - the Suns averaged 19.6 fast-break points per game, 2nd best in the NBA, and outscored opponents by 4.4 pts on FBpts.

Fast forward to March 2015. Dragic and Thomas are gone, and the Suns offense has stumbled. The Suns are near the bottom of the NBA on Offensive rating - in March, they are 27th in OffRat out of 30 teams; only the Lakers, 76ers, and Knicks are worse offensively. The Suns are scoring 15.5 Fast Break ppt in March, a 4.2 FB ppg drop from before the All-Star Break. And their 3PT shooting has been just plain horrible. For March, the Suns are shooting 28.8% from the arc: that is dead last in the NBA for the month.

Yet, the Suns have a 7-4 record in March, and that’s a higher winning percentage than before the All-Star Break. How can this be?

The answer is, the Suns have become an elite defensive and rebounding team. Yes, I’m talking abut the Phoenix Suns.

In March, the Suns have a 97.2 Defensive Rating; that is the 3rd best in the NBA for the month. Their Rebounding Rating is at 52.0%; that is 6th best in the NBA for the month. The Suns are keeping other teams from scoring, and they are grabbing a whole bunch of missed shots when they do so. Before the All-Star Break, the Suns were 17th in DefRat (104.1 ppg allowed per 100 possessions) and 24th in RebRat (48.5%).

Again, how did this happen? The loss of Dragic and Thomas, and an ankle injury to Brandon Knight, caused Suns Coach Hornacek to juggle his line-up. The Suns starting line-up has consisted of Alex Len or Brandan Wright at Center, Mark Morris at PF, Marcus Morris at SF, PJ Tucker at SG, and Eric Bledsoe at PG. This gives the Suns shot-blocking at the center position; a backcourt that pays defense, and also, is perhaps the best rebounding duo at the guard position; and two forwards who, while not great defenders and rebounders themselves, will fight underneath, block-out and gang rebound. The Morrii and Tucker have all played PF in their college and pro careers, and they are ready, willing, and able to get physical. And they are doing so.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SUNS IMPROVEMENT ON ‘D’ AND ON THE BOARDS

Table 2: Stats from Prior to the All-Star Break, and for March


suns-stats-part-2.0.jpg

 Source: compiled from http://stats.nba.com; compiled at 3/23/2015 - 3/24/2015

A look at a couple of metrics highlights how the Suns have gotten so much better on defense and on the backboards.

One problem the Suns had before the All-Star Break is that they could not defend without fouling. The FTA (Free Throw Attempts) Rate stat, which is the result of dividing free throw attempts per game by field goal attempts per game, gives an idea of how much a team or its opponents go to the foul line. Prior to the All-Star Break, the Suns FTA_Rat was 31.0%; so for Suns’ opponents, almost every three field goal resulted in one foul shot. The Suns were 28th in the league for that metric.

Meanwhile, the Suns’ offensive FTA Rate was only 24.8%; this was 25th in the NBA. The end result was that the Suns were outscored by 3.1 ppt at the foul line before the Break. But in March, the Suns defensive FTA Rate has dropped to 24.6% (9th best in the NBA); while their offensive FTA Rate has risen to 28.8%, 12 best in the NBA. As a result, in March the Suns are outscoring opponents by 0.9 pts at the foul line. That is a positive swing of 4 pts per game in free throw scoring since mid February, and helps explain the Suns’ success despite some very weak offensive numbers.

Another big improvement for the Suns has been scoring and defending second chance point opportunities. Prior to the Break, the Suns allowed 15.3 second chance points per game. This was dead last in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Suns only scored 12.3 2ndChnPts themselves. So the Suns were outscored by 3.0 ppt on rebound scoring.

But look at the stats for March. The Suns are averaging 15.5 2ndChnPts themselves (that’s third best in the NBA in March), while limiting opponents to 11.0 2ndChnPts (that 3rd best in the NBA). Now, the Suns are outscoring opponents by 4.5 ppg on rebound scoring, as I call it. And that represents a positive swing of 7.5 ppg for this metric, compared to pre-All Star break stats. Again, this helps to explain the Suns’ recent success despite some very weak offensive numbers.

These stats highlight something we all knew: that defense and rebounding wins games. But supposedly the Suns didn’t have the talent to play grind-it-out kind of basketball. It now seems those suppositions were wrong. Who knew?

Might we be looking at Grindhouse version 2.0? (Basketball fans know that the Memphis Grizzlies are the original Grindhouse gang.)

CAN THE SUNS’ RECENT SUCCESS BE MAINTAINED?

The Suns are playing well now, but it remains to be seen if this performance can be sustained. We are looking at a very small sample size, and this month’s winning record could be a fluke (in fact, it kind of is… more on that later). But there is reason to think that the Suns are really on to something, albeit, something that probably was not planned, but just happened due to trades and injuries.

The Suns are winning almost 2 out of 3 games this month, despite being horrible offensively. Their 28.8% shooting percentage on 3s this month is horrible and unacceptable. The Suns have become turnover prone, and it’s hurt them. In March, opposing teams are scoring 21 ppg off Suns’ turnovers; the Suns are dead last in the NBA in that statistic. Almost one-fifth of the points scored by Suns opponents come from Suns turnovers.

The good news is, the Suns’ team offense has room to improve. In March, Eric Bledsoe is shooting 40.5% from the 3PT line, and PJ Tucker is shooting 38.1% on treys. A big problem is that Marcus Morris is mired in a month long shooting slump: his overall FG% is 36.1%, his 3PT% is 23.7%, and he’s shooting just 45.5% from the foul line. Marc Morris is too good to continue to shoot so poorly. Although it might also be the case that he has trouble scoring from the SF position. We’ll see what happens as time goes on. Meanwhile, Mark Morris is shooting 22.2% from the arc, and you have to wonder if it’s time to time put up a red light on his 3PT shooting.

As for turnovers, that might be something the Suns will have to live with if Bledsoe is going to be the sole PG in the Suns starting unit. Bledsoe is just plain turnover prone, and this month has shown how easily that weakness can be exploited. In March, Bledsoe has four games where he committed 7 turnovers. Prior to March, he had only three games with 7 turnovers. It might be that all we can do is hope that the extra experience of going solo as a playmaker can improve his performance.

It should also be noted that the Suns have ben lucky this month. Recently, they beat a NO team that was missing All-NBA talent Anthony Davis by just 2 points. They squashed a Houston team that lacked Dwight Howard and PF Terrence Jones. Probably their best win since the break, an overtime victory against the OKC Thunder in late February, came with Kevin Durant on the sidelines. And I think a lot of teams have taken the Suns’ lightly, feeling that they were no longer competitive, especially with Brandon Knight out. Disrespect can be costly in the NBA. So, serendipity has been a part of their recent success.

And also, a team or player is only as good as the latest scouting report. I’m sure a lot of people still see this squad as a typical run-and-gun Suns team. But that is not who they are right now. As teams get a handle on the Suns’ current strengths and weaknesses, game plans will be adjusted. But from challenge will come growth for the Suns.

In the Suns’ recent back to back wins over Houston and Dallas, they shot 50% and 51% respectively; out-rebounded the opposition by 13 and 9 rebonds respectively; and gave away 21 pts and 25 pts off turnovers respectively to the other team. If the Suns can shoot like that consistently and cut down the turnovers, they will be a force to be reckoned with. And I don’t think it’s that big of an 'if', in the long run.

But it might be too much to expect that kind of consistency now. I expect some ups and downs as the Suns work through this new identity, and determine if this new style of play (and the players who are working it) really represents a path to playoff success. It's way too early to say for sure where this thing is going. But the potential is intriguing.

WHAT TO DO WITH KNIGHT?

The most interesting quandary the Suns face, I think, is what to do with Brandon Knight. The Suns' recent success has come with Marc Morris at SF and Tucker at SG. With either of them out of the line-up the Suns will be smaller, probably not as good defensively, surely not as good rebounding-wise. Is that desirable?

One thing that’s clear to me is, PJ Tucker needs to be in the line-up. He is the linchpin of the Suns’ defensive effort, as shown in back-to-back games where he limited James Harden to 16 pts on 5/19 FG shooting - on the road, no less - and Monta Ellis to 11 pts on 4/22 FG shooting. For the month of March, Tucker is averaging 7.6 rebounds, and that is great for a guy who’s swinging between the SF and SG positions.

My opinion is, don’t mess with recent success, and go with Morris and Tucker. Go with that until it stops working. But if you do that, what will Knight think about being a backup player, and what does that do to the Suns’ chances of signing Knight to a contract extension this summer?

In any event, the Suns need a healthy Knight. Seth Curry, AJ Price, and occasionally Archie Goodwin have been disastrous as PG backups. Knight’s return will make the Suns a better team. But his role on the Suns through the end of the season is an open question, to me at least.

Meanwhile, the pressure is on Marcus Morris, I think. He’s part of a winning formula now, but all it takes is a loss or two for everything to be questioned. If he can break out of his shooting slump, continue to rebound and defend, and help the team get more W’s, Coach Hornacek will find it hard to take him out of the starting line-up. We’ll see.