FanPost

Target Identified

Sooooo, wassup? How ya doin'? Good? Good! Good.

Now that the Suns have made most (all?) of their free-agent acquisitions the prospect of further roster change turns to the "Trade Market". As long as Markieff Morris is on the team I can't believe our roster is considered finalized. I actually really like the guys play on the court, while he's not perfect, I've longed championed for him to stick around even if his ceiling was believed to be as a career back-up. Of course, last season changed my mind. I don't think I need to say why as I doubt the reasons are unclear at this point.

Now, you may wonder who will want to take a player who is in the midst of significant legal trouble. Well, Detroit didn't seem to mind taking on his twin brother so I believe MOST teams won't consider his legal woes an insurmountable obstacle. Especial if the Suns can spin things as Marcus being the trouble maker with Kieff just getting caught up in his antics, which to me, seems to be about 75% true anyways.

Considering we are only interested in clear upgrades we will probably be asked to part with additional pieces to either sweeten the deal or make the salaries match or both. In that case it's good to remember we have a treasure trove full of mid-to-late first round picks we can send along with Kieff as well as the friendly contracts of McNeal @ $850k, Leuer @ $1.03m (who can't be "packaged" in trade), and our lovely PJ Tucker @ $5.5m. On a personal note, I don't see PJ's tardiness as a reason to send him packing, nor do I feel his DUI makes him a complete embarrassment to the franchise. I'd much rather see PJ stick around if at all possible, he's been around for pre-draft workouts and he's clearly visible hangin' with the coaches and rooks in some of the Summer League training camp footage BSOTS have posted recently -- he even did his part in the recruitment of LMA. Too me, he's a proud SUN and that means something. That said, an upgrades an upgrade. You gotta take it if you can get it.

Target Number 1:

Serge Ibaka: $12.25m and shot a respectable .376 from 3 last season... He also rebounds and dunks purdy guud.

The OKC Thunder are in the precarious position of potentially having to jettison a contract soon IF they choose to match Enes Kanter's $70m contract offer from the Blazers AND IF they are opposed to paying too much in Luxury Tax.

They've done it before, they may do it again. This is one of those "Ya never really know" scenarios that is more fun to debate as a fan than to have to decide as an Owner/Executive in the league.

I'm going to assume that they plan on re-signing Kevin Durant next summer at or near a maximum contact which will put his salary at up to $30m depending on the future Cap.

Matching Kanter's contract puts their team salary around $92m for 15-16. With a luxury tax line coming in at about $85m for next season that not only means they have to pay the luxury tax BUT because they paid the tax last year (for the first time) it means they'll be paying an even higher Repeater Tax. If they do nothing they will be paying $18m in taxes this coming season.

True the cap and tax line will be rising significantly again in 16-17 BUT adding another $10m to Durant's salary pushes them past the projected cap but the rise is estimated to stagnate a bit after that as the league adjusts to the new TV money. Right in time for them to need new max (or near max) contracts for Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka in the summer of 17. Once again putting them into repeater luxury tax territory, added to any team over the tax twice in a three year period.

If last years struggles turn out to be less-flukey than believed, oh well, their hands are essentially tied. There aren't going to be a lot of ways for them to get better...

SHORT OF A TRADE

Markieff Morris makes $8m next year with a dip down to $7.4 the following year. The Suns cap number now that Tyson has signed his papers, assuming Sonny, Ronnie, and Mirza haven't put pen to paper just yet, is at $57.8m including Brandon Knight's cap hold. So we are under the $70m cap for the moment. Including the unsigned newbie contracts we're at ($5.5m Mirza + $2.9m Weems) $66.2m, not including Knight's extension and Ronnie's veterans minimum deals that allow us to go over the cap.

It's possible we could do a Kieff for Ibaka trade (plus picks and cash from us) as long as we do it BEFORE signing our other guys. Putting us at $62.05m allowing us to fit his salary in our cap room. If we do it after signing Mirza and Sonny we are about $450k over the cap but it may be legal somehow... I'm not sure. We could certainly make it work by including McNeal plus cash to cover his costs. Point being, there are ways to make it work.

After trading for Kieff their salary sits at $87.75m not under the luxury tax but they're saving over $11m on their tax bill AND if they jettison another $2.8m they don't pay a dime of tax. Not a bad outcome considering they also get themselves a very good starting power forward for the next 4 years who will be able to spread the floor to give Russ more room to attack.

If I'm OKC I listen to McD's phone call very closely and give it real consideration.

Target Number 2:

Danilo Gallinari: $11.56m and shoots a respectable .367 from 3 for his career... He also tends to be broken a lot.

The Italian playboy is said to be "on the block" but before Denver decapitates him I'd suggest they simply trade him to the Suns. This mother lover is such a fascinating player when he isn't broken. He moves well, he scores in truck-loads and he stretches the floor from the 3-position as well as anyone. If the Suns can keep him from dying on the court he'd be a great fit. He doesn't defend particularly well as far as I know but with Tyson/Alex behind him he need only worry about "team defense" which he's smart enough to figure out.

The down side to giving up assets for Gallinari is also the upside -- his money comes off the books next year. So he's either a one year rental that ends in injury and an inglorious exit OR he plays great and loves it here and we find a way to make the money work.

Listed at 6'10" Galli is theoretically just as tall as Serge Ibaka but he prefers to play the 3. Much like Ibaka's current teammate Kevin Durant. No Danilo Gallinari IS NOT as good as KD, duh. It would be AWESOME if we could land both guys though, right!? Well, we don't have enough outgoing salaries to qualify for the "Salary plus $5m" Non-Tax Paying Exception which requires $9.8m in outgoing salaries. Even if we hadn't included Granger and Bullock in the Marcus Morris trade we'd still come up short, unless you're interested in trading away Archie -- but that's in the past anyway sooo...

And no you can't use the Goran Dragic trade exception, "A rule of thumb is that a trade exception can only be used to acquire a player making up to the amount of the exception plus $100,000." (via CBAFAQ.com) sooo...

Well, the only way it could happen is if OKC and Denver agree to a three way trade that is executed simultaneously before we sign any more contracts. This helps us get a good run at the playoffs, Denver moves on from Danilo, and OKC gets out of a tough financial situation entirely.

Serge and Danilo come to the Suns. PJ Tucker and DJ Augustine go to the Nuggets. Markieff Morris goes to the Thunder.

By the Thunder shipping out Augustine they land a smidge under the luxury tax line and get to avoid the dreaded repeater tax long enough for the "two out of three years" rule to reset and potentially saves them $40m+ over the next few years.

Meanwhile the Suns finish the trade at about $68.2m still a little bit below the cap. From there the Suns use Birdrights to sign Knight pushing us past the cap to $72.2m, then we sign Ronnie to the Veterans Minimum, then we sign Mirza using the MLE, then we sign Weems using the Biannual Exception. Putting us at $82.1m and comfortably safe from the Luxury Tax.

I don't know what the front office is planning on doing and I'm not sure I'd swap PJ for Danilo but it's fun to play these little games sometimes.

That's all for now folks!