FanPost

Has Ryan McDonough revealed his strategy for obtaining a superstar?

The rejection from LMA is tough to swallow. Regardless of your position on this current Phoenix Suns roster and the direction the team is currently heading, it was difficult not to get excited about the possibility of Chandler and LMA becoming the new starting front court for the team. Visions of the playoffs in the immediate future got my heart racing like it was 2010.

But perhaps, we have seen something from the Suns young GM that we can use to project future moves. My goal in writing this is to push past the heartache of yet another loss to the Spurs and try to see if there may be a pattern in McD’s process.

The Suns Need a Superstar

This much is obvious… The Suns need a superstar. It’s obvious to the fanbase and even to the players. So much so that their two starting PGs, brand new center, and even PJ Tucker did their fair share of recruiting. (Sorry Keef! Now that we struck out, we’re sure you can lead us to the promised land!)

It’s clear that McD also agrees with this. Two summers in a row, McD has swung for the biggest available fish in free agency. That ambition must be applauded. The fact that he was able to get the team a surprising distance in the sweepstakes both years should get you excited.

In reality, LeBron was always going to Cleveland. There was no real opportunity. Still, the Suns were one of the few teams actually at the table. And in hindsight, LMA was always going to Texas. Still, The Suns surpassed both Houston and Dallas on the shortlist!

Let’s take a closer look at the two most widely accepted theories of how to obtain a superstar; Through trades or through the draft.

The Fickle Nature of Trades

I believe this became more popular since the forming of the Big Three in Boston. Boston traded for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the summer of 2007. The formation of three still in their prime superstars was wildly successful and led to a championship in Boston that very first year! They were also a staple in the Eastern Conference playoffs for years afterward. Let’s look at a couple other superstars traded since then and how those teams have fared.

Feb 2008: Pau Gasol was traded to Los Angeles for a bag of peanuts.

Obligatory mention that a second round pick that happened to turn into Marc Gasol appears to have made this trade worthwhile for the Grizzlies. In reality, this was highway robbery by the Lakers and the second superstar trade in a row that lead to a championship for the acquiring team.

Feb 2011: Carmelo forces his way out of Denver and into NY.

NY cleared it’s deck offering up Wilson Chandler, Danilo Galinari, Raymond Felton, Timofey Mozgov, two first round picks (One became Dario Saric the other transfers over in 2016) NY got it’s superstar and paired him with Amare. But everything they had to give up has proven to be too much to see any success on the court.

Feb 2011: Deron Williams traded to NJ for Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, and two first round picks (One became number 3 pick Enes Kanter and the other become ROY Damian Lillard)

Deron who was legitimately considered one of the top two PGs in the game at the time has since forgotten how to play basketball. Brooklyn Nets fans have seen limited success from this trade.

December 2011: Chris Paul traded to LA Clippers for Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu and a first round pick (This pick eventually became Tobias Harris)

This trade is the best thing that has happened in the history of the franchise. Worth noting, every player given up was a solid NBA player and they still won that trade.

August 2012: The Dwightmare! LA gave up Andrew Bynum, Josh McRoberts, Christian Eyenga, a conditional second round pick and a conditional first round pick in 2017.

LA gave up very little compared to other teams in their quest for a superstar. I think we all enjoyed watching Dwight leave for nothing a year later.

October 2012: James Harden traded to Houston for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, two first round picks (Steven Adams and a second round pick

Undoubtedly Houston won that trade.

August 2014: Kevin Love traded to Cleveland for Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett, and Thaddeus Young

Although Cleveland went to the Finals, I'm not convinced yet how Love fits and due to the injury so early in the playoffs I'll withhold judgement for now.

By my count trading for a superstar has a 50% success rate. And that’s trading for established superstars.

The Myth of Tanking

The other proposed method of acquiring a superstar is through the draft. Yes, fans clamor for their teams to actively lose games in the hopes of ping pong balls landing in their favor so they can possibly not select a bust.

How this has become so popular is mind boggling to me. I don’t play the lottery to begin with because I prefer to invest. Two different methods to getting rich I suppose. So maybe I am biased. IF you successfully tank and have the NBA’s worst record for a year, you are guaranteed a top three pick.

My belief is that the one and done system in college makes pro scouting a nearly impossible job. Stars come later in the draft more frequently and the top of the draft is filled with more busts. That combined with the inconsistency of draft talent level from year to year make the process of tanking unbearable for me.

But let’s take a look at the top three picks (One of whom you’re guaranteed to have a shot of drafting if you had the worst record) starting no earlier than 2012. This date will mean the players have had time to develop and we can use hindsight to decide if it was worth tanking the year for. Remember, you don’t always get the number one pick just because you tanked.

2012: Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd Gilchrist, Bradley Beal

2011: Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams, Enes Kanter

2010: John Wall, Evan Turner, Derrick Favors

2009: Blake Griffin, Hakeem Thabeet, James Harden

2008: Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo

2007: Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Al Horford

2006: Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison

2005: Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Deron Williams

Depending on who you define as a superstar from this list, perhaps 10 of the 24 players became superstars. That’s a 42% success rate assuming you were the most successful team at tanking! If you only have the second worst record, then we’d have to factor in an additional player each year making the odds that much worse!

Even in a strong draft, imagine tanking in 2009 for example and then drafting Hakeem Thabeet. How demoralizing is that for a franchise??? Do you really want to throw away an entire year for a 42% chance of selecting a superstar? Want to tank this season for our shot at someone like Enes Kanter?

In fact, no player drafted at number one has won a championship since 2005 when Bogut was the first pick. And he wasn't even the best player on his team. Quite an interesting fact considering how many number one picks have become stars.

McD’s RFA Method

For the past two years, McD has looked to free agency for his superstar. Both times he struck out, but the positive to this approach is you don’t need to waste a year or trade away your best players to get that superstar. Let’s look at McD’s use of restricted free agents to his advantage.

In the summer of 2014 Bledsoe was a restricted free agent with the Suns. The team had no big contracts. While Bledsoe would eventually be signed to a 70 million dollar contract, the cap hold was much smaller than the salary Bledsoe would actually paid that year. This allowed the Suns to use the pitch to Lebron that they would sign him to a max contract, his buddy Carmelo to a max contract and then go over the cap to retain Bledsoe! Goran Dragic fresh off a 3rd team all NBA season was also under contract.

This summer Goran was traded away for Brandon Knight, yet another restricted free agent. The same method was used in free agency. This time, however, the big fish was more realistic and the Suns were more persistent. The Suns already had Bledsoe on a big deal, Brandon Knight had a cap hold smaller than the salary he would eventually command and the Suns used the flexibility to sign Tyson Chandler to a big contract and then use him as the bait to sign LaMarcus Aldridge!

Ultimately, the Suns came up short both times. The big fish in each year was looking to go home and probably had their minds made up before even hitting free agency. 2016 has another big name though Kevin Durant is rumored to be eyeing a homecoming and signing with the Washington Wizards.

Still, the Suns young GM has certainly been innovative and aggressive in his approach to bring a superstar to the valley. This should make you hopeful if nothing else.