A "Count to 10" Look at Last Night's Game

by TexSUN on Feb 28, 2008 9:51 AM MST in Phoenix Suns: Game Coverage

Remember what your mom told you about being angry: Always count to 10 before lashing out? Well, that's probably what I should have done last night. That was a game that really needed to be slept on in order to be rationally dissected. It isn't like there wasn't anything nice to say. Just that in the fury of the moment, those things were a little hard to remember. So, here are a few of the positives that were lurking beneath the surface of that otherwise unsightly debacle. In no particular order:

Linton Johnson got a nice long look. Over 24 minutes, in fact. On a night when Mike D'Antoni could have just stuck with the tried and true, he opted to give the 10-day guy a fair shake.
Amare hit a three! Not only did he hit it, he looked absolutely comfortable shooting it. I'm going to retract my comments from earlier in the season that I never wanted to see Amare shooting behind the arc. That was BS--as in "before Shaq". Now, I think it would be nice if he would take (and preferably make) one of those ever so often just to let the defense know he can. Just don't fall in love with it.
The offense with Shaq actually looked a lot smoother last night than it did in the previous four games. He seemed to be more a part of it rather than just someone the other guys had to play around to keep from getting in the way.
Steve Nash shoots 1-of-6 from the field about as often as he stopped Jannero Pargo last night. He doesn't usually miss two free throws in a game either. A normal shooting night from Nash would have made that final score look a lot more respectable.
Amare continues to be on a tear offensively. 32 points, 14 rebounds, four assists, and four blocks is nothing to sneeze at.
Leandro Barbosa quietly had a nice night when he wasn't fouling people. He was especially efficient from behind the three-point line. His 5-of-6 was a big part of the reason the Suns shot 50% as a team from behind the arc.
We stayed even on the boards, even with the Hornets shooting lights out.
As others have pointed out, we did not lose this game because of Shaq. It was more the lack of Shawn Marion's defense that hurt us. That's not really a good thing except to say there are 28 other teams in the league besides the Suns that don't benefit from Marion's defense, and they all get by somehow (some better than others, obviously). He's not coming back, so the Suns will have to adjust, either by other guys stepping up to get stops, or just by managing to score 130 points every night so it won't matter if the other team gets 120. But regardless we're trying to stay positive here: Shaq wasn't the problem last night. His plus/minus was right in the middle of the pack with everyone else's.

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Shaq, Marion and the defense

I agree that it's not Shaq that's hurting the team so much as it's just the absence of Shawn Marion that is. The offense will eventually come around and they'll figure out a way to run everything on that end a lot smoother. I'll be really shocked if that doesn't happen some time in the coming weeks. The defensive end, however, is very worrisome. Before the big trade the Suns were allowing teams to score an average of 103.3 ppg. In the 5 games after the trade, but before Shaq made his debut, that average jumped up to 111.0 ppg allowed. In the 5 games the team has played with Shaq the average made a very slight jump to 111.2 ppg. Overall in the 10 games w/o Marion the Suns are now averaging 111.1 ppg allowed on defense. IMO this is a disaster and a very, very worrisome trend. The only positive spin to put on this spike in points allowed is that the Suns have played some of the top scoring teams over these last 10 games (Warriors, Lakers, Hornets twice), yet every team in the last 10 games has scored more than its average against the Suns except for Dallas and Boston.

D'Antoni and his crew need to focus more on fixing the defense than on trying to make the offense work, or else the Suns are going to start allowing even the bad teams they play to hang around in games, giving them a shot to win. Things could be much worse right now if the Suns hadn't won those close games against Seattle, Washington or even Memphis (although obviously they'd be much better if the team had won the close losses to the Hornets the first time, the Warriors or the Lakers). But defense wins championships, and right now the Suns aren't playing any.

by WildYams on Feb 28, 2008 10:22 AM MST reply actions

Bad timing

I made a comment to my Mavs fan friend that if you are going to make a major trade, it would be nice to do it in a stretch of games with bad teams. The Mavs have played the Grizz, Chicago, and Minnesota, and their trade looks great. But we had to break in our new roster against LA, New Orleans (twice), Boston, and Detroit. When we played the Grizz, we looked OK.

I agree with your statements, though. See my posts in the game thread.

'07-'08 Suns: It's clobberin' time!

by Hawk42 on Feb 28, 2008 10:45 AM MST reply actions

Shaq

Considering Shaq hasn't shown any hint of being injured since he came back, I can't help but wonder if he really couldn't have given it a go before the All Star break. Sure would have been better to try to work him in for a few minutes here and there against the Sonics, Wizards and short-handed Mavs before trying him out for the first time ever against the Lakers, Celtics, Pistons and Hornets.

by WildYams on Feb 28, 2008 11:30 AM MST up reply actions

RE: Bad Timing

There is no way to know, of course, but I think this was going to be a tough stretch whether or not Marion was traded for Shaq, and the Suns, like it or not, were not playing well against the better teams in the west, and the Shaq trade doesn't have any bearing on the fact that the Lakers have gone on a tear, beyond the game against the Suns.

Paul Coro wrote this up last week, Suns fans "Better get used to it." If the playoffs started today we'd be a quick out, but there are still almost 2 months to go, and this is the team we have. I didn't think they had enough to win it all as they were, and we will have to be patient and see if the big fella can bring it when money time comes in April.

I've been likening this to a chess game, we're sacrificing some pawns (ok, maybe a bishop or rook) now, and maybe even our queen in terms of a #1 or 2 seed, but I'll gladly trade some wins in February and March for some in June.

by SoCalSun on Feb 28, 2008 12:51 PM MST up reply actions

For what it's worth

Someone on SpursTalk claims to have an "inside source" that says Barry is indeed returning to the Spurs:

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=88269

This should obviously be taken with an enormous grain of salt, of course.

by TexSUN on Feb 28, 2008 12:44 PM MST reply actions

BB

Is Barry really going to make a difference, Tex? We need defenders.

'07-'08 Suns: It's clobberin' time!

by Hawk42 on Feb 28, 2008 12:57 PM MST up reply actions

Not saying he is...

...but since we turned an entire game thread into "Brent Barry Watch" a couple of days ago, I figured I'd just keep doling out the information and rumors as they comes in.

by TexSUN on Feb 28, 2008 1:03 PM MST up reply actions

Strange comedy

I am starting to see a comedy of errors with this franchise. Almost like we had our chance and blew it. Fate is saying, move over, you've had your chance. The Sarver regime will resemble Donald Stirling in Clipperland, not Mark Cuban or Peter Holt. Face it, worst case scenario, we are an old team with one marketable player: Amare. He seems to be finally over his microfracture, and is on his way to the 26 point average he had in 2005. He has become a true beast on the court who, at times, is as good as anyone in the league. The only other positive is the draft choice we have after the season. It will be in slots 10-16.

Besides that we have

34 year old point guard who is noticeably slipping making 13 million
36 year old center making 20 million who will require us to change our attack to get the most out of him.
36 year old small forward who is on borrowed time, thankfully not making much
31 year old three point specialist and defensive whiz who is not making his shots and underperforming on defense

We also have what should be the future shooting guard and point forward of the franchise making 14 million collectively and still struggling to find consistency

We have traded the 2008 and 2010 draft choices because we did not want to pay the price to win

Can you tell I'm pissed?

'07-'08 Suns: It's clobberin' time!

by Hawk42 on Feb 28, 2008 12:56 PM MST reply actions

Marketable/unmarketable

Shaq won't be marketable until he becomes a ginormous expiring contract in 2010. Might be hard to move him even then. Grant Hill is not a big deal to just ride out. Besides, he has a player option for next season, and if we get bounced early (or miss altogether) who knows if he even picks that up? Raja is still a useful piece, although at some point he will have to return to the bench, which was the original reason he was brought in to begin with.

Nash on the other hand is probably marketable through the end of his contract as long as he can keep lacing it up every night. There's always going to be teams chomping at the bit for a veteran point guard of Nash's caliber to lead their young guys, and if he could move to a team of otherwise strong defenders, he might even end up with that ring after all. The problem right now is the Suns have too few guys who can (or will) play consistent defense, and with Marion gone, it's not as easy for Nash to create enough on offense to make up for what he (and others) give up on the other end. The Suns need to figure out who they want to be. If they want to become a defense-first team, then they need to get the right personnel for it. They're not going to trade Amare (and shouldn't), so they'll have to build around him. Amare, unfortunately, hasn't shown consistent progress on defense either. If it becomes obvious that the window is closed (and I still think it's WAY too premature to say that for certain at this point), then I think it might be prudent (and even decent) to move Nash in favor of a more defensive-minded point guard (e.g., someone in the Devin Harris mold). Assuming the Suns are going to commit to running the offense through the big guys, that is. That may depend on how long D'Antoni sticks around.

by TexSUN on Feb 28, 2008 1:15 PM MST up reply actions

BTW

Just to emphasize again.... I'm saying IF it becomes obvious that the Suns' moment has passed. I'm NOT saying we should all jump off the ship and blow it up right now. I still think it's way too soon for that.

by TexSUN on Feb 28, 2008 1:21 PM MST up reply actions

Philly game

We need to treat this Philadelphia game like practice. D'A needs to try all his combinations, play DJ on Iggy for a spell. Play Boris a lot to see if he is going to pull his head out of where it has been. If he doesn't respond, give his minutes to Johnson. Design a few plays for Shaq, and keep running them until he gets it. If anyone gets the ball stolen, he comes out.

The reason I say this is #1, it is at home, and the 76ers are an awful road team. and #2, we really don't want to win this game, we want Philly to stay ahead of the Hawks. ATL has the Celtics, Warriors, Magic, and Hornets coming up, and of course a double dip against Shawn and the Heat. Maybe Shawn will do us a favor?

'07-'08 Suns: It's clobberin' time!

by Hawk42 on Feb 28, 2008 1:11 PM MST reply actions

Memo to the Hawks

Memo to the Hawks:

If you won't tank, we'll tank for you.

by SoCalSun on Feb 28, 2008 1:52 PM MST up reply actions

Help me understand something

If the Hawks come in 8th their pick will be in the 16 to 20 range right? And if they come in 9th they are lottery eligible but their odds of a top 5 pick are very low. More likely would be a 12-15 pick.

So, we should lose to Philly to potentially possibly maybe (but not really likely) try and get a few places higher?

Is that right?

Phoenix - where rookie love happens

by Seth Pollack on Feb 28, 2008 2:16 PM MST up reply actions

Hawks and tanking

The way I understand it is this:

If the Hawks make the playoffs in the East, then they are not in the lottery. Doesn't matter that they are still a crappy team and would have finished no better than 11th, and maybe even 12th in the West. In fact, maybe even worse than that since they would have had to play more West teams. They still won't be in the lottery. Meanwhile, there's going to be at least a couple of teams in the West that are going to make the lottery despite being teams that would have earned a top-four seed in the East. That's part of what stinks about breaking the playoffs into conferences instead of just taking the 16 best teams--it's set up so that once one conference gains the type of dominance we now have, it gets harder and harder for the bulk of the other conference to catch up. But that's a rant to save for another day....

Anyway, so assuming the Hawks end up with the 7th seed in the East, which is about where I think they'll be once it all plays out, then our pick would be #16, set in stone and unchangeable, since I'm assuming no West team is going to both make the playoffs and finish with a worse record than Atlanta. If they fall to the 8th seed, then we'd end up picking at #15. That sounds depressing, but remember, Steve Nash was a #15. (BTW, Kobe was #13 in that same draft).

Of course, if the Hawks miss the playoffs altogether, then all the sudden their pick has an excellent chance of being much better. Even if they finish ninth in the East, they'd probably have to get in line behind two, maybe three teams in the West when it comes to who has the best record of the non-playoff teams. So Atlanta missing the playoffs could theoretically mean the difference between a pick in the mid-teens and one in the top 10. And of course, there's always that one in a million chance of even winning the lottery too.

All that said, you can't tank games in hopes of maybe, possibly helping a bad Eastern conference team over the hump to save a draft pick. You just can't. Who knows what happens next season? With the kind of rotten luck the Suns franchise has, maybe they lose Nash for half a season, or Amare again, or who knows. Or maybe everything works out perfectly, but the guy you get with that top 10 pick goes Kwame on you. You have to give it your best shot now, even if that means helping Atlanta stick it to us.

by TexSUN on Feb 28, 2008 2:43 PM MST up reply actions

Torn

I am torn between heaping a big helping of "I Told You So" on those that got on board w/ the Shaqxperiment after a few press conference and saving that for a few more weeks to be fair. And safe.

Clearly we have seen all the downside of this trade so far (as predicted) regarding slow offense and Shaq trying to play away from the low post and even worse the sucky defense b/c Marion is gone + Shaq can't guard anyone away from the basket. We have seen marked improvement on the boards which is certain a nice consolation.

Perhaps we can express what we have learned this way in a nod to my 5th grade daughter's algebra homework I spend so much time trying to figure out:

Great offense + Medicore defense - Sucky Rebounding > Solid rebounding + Ok Offense - Crappy Defense

But I think I am going to withhold my full blast of self rightious grandiosity for a few more weeks. As painful as these games are, I am thinking that they just can't count as long as we manage to get into the playoff's at all (most likely) and they somehow manage to sort this out before April.

So, game on. I stand by my predictions and hope you suckas do to.

Phoenix - where rookie love happens

by Seth Pollack on Feb 28, 2008 2:27 PM MST reply actions

Suns Swept

It's frustrating when you lose 4-0 in your head to head series. I'm really hoping the Suns don't have to meet up with the Hornets in the playoffs.

David West worked them over tonight, man Amare is playing out of his mind, if only the rest of the team could pick it up - I guess it's going to take some time with Shaq in the middle.

Suns definately missing Marion's cover-all defense in these sort of matchups. Chris Paul again putting on a clinic, that dude is surely a top 3 MVP runner.

Time to turn things around Suns, and string a few wins together.

by dang on Feb 28, 2008 2:31 PM MST reply actions

Perimeter D

The perimeter defense is undoubtedly weaker than before. But I ask you whether it was really that good to begin with. It's not an enourmous drop-off. It's just not.

Phoenix had a ton of blocked shots with Marion on the squad, but I still assert that this only means the perimeter players were getting torched.

http://www.hoopsvibe.com/nba/nba-articles/blocked-shots-and-bad-defense-ar46895.html

Why does Pargo, a 40% shooter, light up the Suns when he's taking jumpers with a hand in his face? Must've been some sort of tear in the space-time continuum.

I attribute the poor defensive performance to the coaching staff's rotations. Here it goes:

With CP3 lighting everyone up, why didn't DJ at least get a chance?
I understand that The Principal will get reduced PT with Shaq here, but doesn't he warrant some time? At least more than Doris, I'll tell you that (it's a sad, sad state of affairs that Doris is now the 6th man in this new rotation). West was lighting up Amare and no one was dumb enough to put Shaq on him, so why wasn't Skinner tried? West was unconscious in the 4th, but if Skinner had slowed him down earlier, he may not have been in a groove and Skinner wouldn't have had to be in during the 4th.
Why did Linton Johnson play 24 minutes? I understand giving the guy a chance to play, but this was a big game and took time away from DJ and The Principal. And the guy is named after lint.
Raja is done. He was originally brought in to come off the bench and be a defensive stopper -- specifically, a Manu Stopper. I don't care that he hit 3 treys against Memphis. They were losing because the defense sucked and he is supposed to be our defensive gem. Further, all those missed shots early in the game hurt the score, too. He shoots too much and doesn't defend well enough.

I said this at the beginning of the season and I'll say it again: Bell should sit on the bench until Manu goes to the scorer's table. Then, he should hound Manu relentlessly and sit down when Manu sits down. Let LB start. He's had great stats starting and, although D will suffer a bit, it will not be that much of a drop-off from Bell. Further, the offense will be better. That'd be a net gain.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Feb 28, 2008 3:12 PM MST reply actions

Not tank - practice

I can't resist my favorite basketball quote here, since we're talking about the Sixers:

"I mean, we're talkin' about practice. Practice" -- Allen Iverson

Regarding my Philly suggestion, I am not saying we tank, just use the opportunity intelligently, if we lose, at least we learned some things. In this period of adjustment following the trade, every loss should pay us some in the form of development, whereas for example, the Detroit game didn't tell us anything helpful.

You mention the Principla. Has he gotten into D'A's doghouse? I hardly saw him in the 5 straight TV games.

'07-'08 Suns: It's clobberin' time!

by Hawk42 on Feb 28, 2008 7:07 PM MST reply actions