Shaqxperiment - What have we learned so far?

by Seth Pollack on Feb 28, 2008 2:31 PM MST in Phoenix Suns News

Great Offense + Medicore Defense + Sucky Rebounding > Solid Rebounding + Good Offense + Crappy Defense

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Hmm...

That equation might be off a little. I think you mean: Great Offense + Medicore Defense + Sucky Rebounding > Solid Rebounding + Good Offense + Crappy Defense

...assuming you mean the left side of that equation to be what we had before the Shaq-Marion swap and the second half to mean afterwards.

(i.e., we had/have all of those things, not the first two minus the last one).

by TexSUN on Feb 28, 2008 2:53 PM MST reply actions

Those should be plus signs

Otherwise, on the left side you've got "great offense" and "mediocre defense" and the negative of "sucky rebounding" which would be good rebounding.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Feb 28, 2008 3:18 PM MST reply actions

No wonder my

daughter stuggles in math....

Phoenix - where rookie love happens

by Seth Pollack on Feb 28, 2008 3:30 PM MST reply actions

Yeah I know that after 5 games things dont look so hot. But it's only FIVE games into the Shaq era. The euphoria is indeed gone that we saw the first few days, as it should be since this experiment was never going to be easy. Yet the euphoria should be replaced by a kind of "wait and see" caution, not panic.

Offense looks to be improving with Shaq now. It will probably continue to improve into the forseable future. Just look at STAT, he's a dark god of PF's now. Even Hill (minus last game) seems to really be stepping up.

Rebounding is actually solid. This is a very welcome sign. All year long and the seasons prior saw a Suns team that almost always lost on the glass. Now we either break even or win the glass battles

Now about that D. Some of it can be blamed on communications and D assignments with Shaq now on the court. The big thing, in my mind, is where out perimeter D has gone. Now we all know Nash is OK at best on D, but what about Bell? Bell should be rockin on perimeter D like he usually does, but as of late he has not. Couple that together with the other aforementioned issue on D then you indeed have a problem. Is this problem for the longterm? Damned if I know, but you gotta believe Raja who always plays with his heart will definately get himself going again. And with the team dynamics changing practically overnight you'd expect some aspect of the Suns game to take longer to recover that others.

So in conclusion I'm pleading to you, my fellow fans, not to panic yet. As I have said in posts in the past on Shaq, we will not really have any clear picture of this team for AT LEAST 3 to maybe even 4 weeks. Patience is a virtue guys.

"I have heard that in war haste can be folly, but have never seen delay that was wise." Sun Tzu

by Turambar on Feb 28, 2008 4:18 PM MST reply actions

On defense..

While there is no question that the Suns had some defensive lapses last night, it's not always so simple as "Their score = Our bad defense". Let me ask this: when the Suns are (were?...sniff) on one of their scoring blitzes, it that always bad defense from the other team, or are the Suns just really good offensively? The answer, usually, is a little bit of both.

As much as anything last night, the Suns offense couldn't keep up with the Hornets. Just as we have seen from the Suns so often over the last few years, the Hornets scored on 4-5 successive possessions repeatedly, and the Suns were not able to do so at the same time. Soon enough the game gets out of reach and then the effort sags, and THEN the bad defense really shows up. Listening to the Hornet announcers (talk about a bunch of homers, but anyways) last night, they were not at all surprised to see Pargo (Mucho Jannero, as they call him) get off as he did. Peja is known as a 1-dimensional player, his one dimension happens to be shooting lights out, West earned his way into the all-star game against the whole league, not just the Suns, and CP3 is a legit MVP candidate who , again, is torching just about everybody, not just Nash.

This team is not nearly as good as they were prior to the trade at this time, but I think they are getting better as a unit. They are still having mis-cues (I'm thinking of the Shaq/Nash p/r at the elbow that leaves Shaq with a free-throw line jumper--Amare would roll on in and dunk that shizznit, while Shaq can't get there and so tries to pull up), but as I posted earlier, they've got some time to work it out.

Yes, they miss Marion's defense, and it looks like they really need another 3-point shooter (c'mon, Bones Barry!), but it's way to early to call this a failure. That's not to say we might get there eventually, but I'm going to keep looking half-full and look for the improvements.

by SoCalSun on Feb 28, 2008 4:21 PM MST reply actions

Not on defense

I think Wildyams breaks it down best in this comment:

Before the big trade the Suns were allowing teams to score an average of 103.3 ppg. In the 5 games after the trade, but before Shaq made his debut, that average jumped up to 111.0 ppg allowed. In the 5 games the team has played with Shaq the average made a very slight jump to 111.2 ppg. Overall in the 10 games w/o Marion the Suns are now averaging 111.1 ppg allowed on defense.

As proven above I am no math genius, but I am fairly sure you need to hold teams to under 111 ppg to be competitive in the NBA.

Phoenix - where rookie love happens

by Seth Pollack on Feb 28, 2008 4:36 PM MST up reply actions

Comparative Analysis

You're right that 111 is higher than 103. Seems you're okay at simple math, but getting into algebra is where your skills break down.

And ... you don't need math skills to know that teams need to keep opponents under 111 to win. That has more to do with basketball knowledge, so I'm not giving you credit for that comment.

Part of that should be attributed to the high level of competition since the trade. The bigger part, though, should be attributed to the Suns' failure at communicating on defense. I think more time together will improve the defense, which is why I'm not too upset yet. Also, isn't picking up the Diesel supposed to signal a less-exciting regular season with a better chance in the playoffs?

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Feb 28, 2008 4:59 PM MST up reply actions

Statistically...

There's not enough samples. The data for pre-Shaq games is enough, but the Shaq era is only 5 games, not a large enough sample to be taking averages and making inferences on the true mean.

"Act well your part: there all the honor lies"-Alexander Pope

by PurplePinoy on Feb 29, 2008 10:59 PM MST up reply actions

New theory - no math involved

So what if they are spending so much time on offense in practice and preparation that they just haven't discussed how to play D with this new team.

And then on the court mentally they are so focused and working so hard on offense that there's no room left to think about playing hard D.

Phoenix - where rookie love happens

by Seth Pollack on Feb 28, 2008 5:31 PM MST reply actions

You might be right

Which would only mean that nothing's really changed.

Defense is about drilling.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Feb 28, 2008 9:44 PM MST up reply actions

How about this?

How about they play a game just once where their primary focus is on playing good defense. Doesn't it seem that playing great defense would lead to good offense? Sometimes I wonder if there is any emphasis at all in practice or on the sidelines during timeouts to preach defense. It sure doesn't look that way.

by TwinnerA on Feb 29, 2008 9:37 AM MST reply actions

For What It's Worth

I coached a soccer team that had some great offensive players. We worked on simple stuff on the offense and they were naturally just so good at it that we always scored a lot.

On defense, we had a couple of amazing athletes that were always pulling plays out of the rears to save the day. It took all season, but I finally convinced the guys that that is not good defense. I also convinced them that if they played good defense, we'd be guaranteed a win because no one could shut us out.

We worked on team defense endlessly. Just like out of the movies, in the championship game, we won 1-0.

Defense, so much more than offense, is about drilling and repetition. I'm not nearly smart enough to know which drills, practice regimens, etc., are appropriate, but I know they exist and the manner in which the Suns play defense tends to show that they are not used in practice.

Mmmmm ... Guinness

by JSun on Feb 29, 2008 10:03 AM MST up reply actions

Good point

No trade or signing is going to automatically make a team a defensive force. Defense is a team effort, no, a team SKILL that needs to be honed. Its one of the most simplistic difficulties in existance. The concept of defense is very simple, but its execution is tedious and tough.

"Act well your part: there all the honor lies"-Alexander Pope

by PurplePinoy on Feb 29, 2008 11:02 PM MST up reply actions

Mindset

Isn't that part of the D'Antoni game, though? I've heard him say a few times that "if we can't stop them, we just have to outscore them." Meaning he doesn't mind if we give up easy baskets, as long as we can average 30 a quarter and get to 120. That may have worked in the past few years, as we were always the better conditioned team, and we'd have the other team out of gas by the end of the game. We'd also be able to trade our three points for their two, since we could spread the floor with shooters.

These days, though, our players have changed. Some have gone, some have gotten older, and some have regressed. We need to change our strategies and our minds in order to cope with these changes. D'Antoni, though, for all of his yelling at the refs, never seems to yell much at the players. Also, do we have anyone on the coaching staff who can devise solid defensive drills, if it comes to that? I heard somewhere that Shaq's habit of coasting on defense is starting to rub off on Amare, not that he needs any help...

by zooropa on Feb 29, 2008 12:49 PM MST reply actions