Playoff seeding - lots of scenarios left

by Seth Pollack on Apr 13, 2008 6:51 PM MST

Here we are in the final throws of the season and it is nearly impossible to sort out the seeding.

I do think its fair to say that the Lakers and Hornets will finish 1 and 2 and that the Mavs and likely Denver will finish 7 and 8. In the middle its a mosh pit of wins and losses and remaining matchups.

So for the Suns here's what I think the best, likely and worst case scenarios given the remaining schedules.

Frist two assume Suns win out and finish 55-27.

Best case - Suns get 4th seed and home court against the Spurs or Rockets. To have this happen though the Rockets have to lose all three of their final games including one to the Clippers. Not likely.

Most likely - Suns get 5th seed and play Rockets or Jazz w/o home court. The Jazz and Rockets play eachother yet and most likely the winner will get third seed.

Worst Case - Suns can't get worse then the 6th seed even if they lose both games and Dallas wins out. So, worst case the Suns play either Spurs, Rockets or Jazz without home court.

Bottom line is that it is highly unlikely that the Suns will get the 4th seed and home court in the first round. The 5th or 6th seed won't have home court and the opponent is still either Houston, Spurs or Jazz depending how well they play each other.

Where the difference between the 5th and 6th seed matters is in the second round. As a 5th seed winner we would play the winner of the 1 - 8 matchup (Lakers / Nuggets) while as the sixth seed we would be playing the winner of the 2 - 7 (Hornets / Mavs).

All this would have been much rosier for the Suns of course had we only not doubled T-Mac in the 1st qtr and lost that game.

Be prepared for lots of happy talk from Suns camp about how home court doesn't matter.

Update [2008-4-14 12:57:36 by Phoenix Stan]:

True Hoop explains the four way tie break scenario in more detail...see for yourself because even copy/pasting it confuses me.

Update [2008-4-13 22:6:29 by Phoenix Stan]:

Now with visuals...this scenario seems as likely as plenty of others. But who the heck knows.

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I think

that the winner of 3-6 plays the winner of 2-7 and the winner of 4-5 plays the winner of 1-8.

I'm all comfortable with 6th. Spurs-> Hornets-> LA. Suits me fine. I want the chance at the Spurs and only hope we can have a chance at LA before the Suns are done.

by ZonaFlash on Apr 13, 2008 6:58 PM MST reply actions

Yes, I think your right

that's they way it was last year. That kind of makes you want the 6th seed over the 5th for the Suns unless you want to get the Lakers in the 2nd round instead of potentially in the WCF.

This took a spreadsheet and 2 hours to sort out and I still have no clue. My head hurts.

Btw - Nugs up over the Rox 58-42 almost end of 1st half.

We deffinately want the Nugs to win to help kill any hope the Warriors will have. But still, given what I think we figured out I am not sure it matters if we win the final two games or not. At least for seeding purposes.

Phx - where The Dream happens (to us)

by Seth Pollack on Apr 13, 2008 7:16 PM MST up reply actions

zonaflash you sound kind of like me

Except I say I hope we get a chance at phx before the playoffs are all said and done. Rockets have lost throwing away the three way tie for first (which would have made lakers third if rockets had won the rest of there games) so I guess we don't get to see you guys till later.

Shaq:"The kobster, he's an assassin" Answer for who should be mvp.

by ldeep on Apr 13, 2008 8:27 PM MST reply actions

You know

win or lose, it's a series that needs to happen.

Odds might be in your favor, but I want that series as bad as you!

by ZonaFlash on Apr 13, 2008 9:53 PM MST up reply actions

Spurs...

I still don't know if we want to play the Spurs in the first round, even though we beat them in the last 2 games with Shaq.

by sonicking on Apr 13, 2008 8:56 PM MST reply actions

The spurs and other thoughts

Considering how poorly they played in the fourth quarter yesterday against LA (and against everybody last week) and our improved defence, I think the Spurs are very winnable.
Yesterday was a though night with this LA vs SA game: which one you want the most to watch losing a game? The debate about which squad you like the most to hate was very empirical yesterday.

Considering we have the tie against SA and not against LA, I chose to hope for a Spurs loss. By the way, dealing with the MVP discussion, even if I hate LA and Kobe (but I love Turiaf), I think it could be the time for him to receive his trophy and stop whining. Moreover, he could be so excited to be named MVP that it could distract him to focus on playoffs. Therefore, the best scenario for us to enjoy these playoffs even if we don't have a top seed could be to destroy SA in the first round and to continue by destroying La in the second. What a satisfaction it could be! Let's keep the dreaming: we destroy then NO in the conference final in order to have a revenge for the season sweep, and finally, destroy the pistons because they owned us in a bas way and won at home because of the refs. Boris Diaw is named final MVP (19ppg, 9 rbd, 9ass, 3bkd, 3stl) and Kobe, disgusted, decide to give up and go into retirement. Wow.

Oh, I just forgot the last game's result against a Rocket team without its all-star centre and its best perimeter defensive and with its other all-star playing with a sore shoulder and 2 rookies in its rotation... We lost???? I can't believe it!

The warriors tonight shall be quite motivated! They will be hard to contain!

where full french will surely happen during the playoff

by warmup on Apr 14, 2008 5:03 AM MST up reply actions

I have to say something

we all knew you were kidding but for the mvp part even if there was a chance of him being distracted it wouldn't be to you guys (kicking him out twice in a row and all is a good way to get humbled quickly).
and wow you like to dream, diaw becoming great is like me hoping mbenga becomes the next shaq.

Shaq:"The kobster, he's an assassin" Answer for who should be mvp.

by ldeep on Apr 14, 2008 8:48 AM MST up reply actions

Now that I think of It

Having Kobe win the MVP might revert him to "I'm the MVP!! And they're daring ME to take every shot?? I'll show them!! I'll drop 50!!" The chances are small, but hey, if it can happen, lets go ahead and give it to him. Where can I send in my vote?

by RealTangiblesGuy on Apr 14, 2008 9:16 AM MST up reply actions

Doris Meow

Oh yeah, if Meow wins the Finals MVP, I will never make fun of the French again. Ever. In my life.

by RealTangiblesGuy on Apr 14, 2008 9:24 AM MST up reply actions

Petro

Ok Warm-up, as a fan of French basketball what can you tell us about Petro.

I have been convinced since last season that he was the perfect backup center for the Suns.

What do you think?

Phx - where The Dream happens (to us)

by Seth Pollack on Apr 14, 2008 9:55 AM MST up reply actions

Petro and Co

Indeed, I plan to write a post about my feeling about the french players one of these days. But it will come later, probably during an "off day" during the WCF when we'll be resting to finish the laker's sweeping (I'll be sad for Turiaf by the way!).

At this time of the season, it's too busy with the playoff push and competition in the west, and I don't sleep very well waiting for suns game to "watch" (on the web, often only reading live blogging 'cause I can't find any link...).

I'll just give you a kind of "preview": I think a lot of french players improved a lot this year, and Petro is one of them (that's a shame the only french not to improve is Doris!). I was not very enthusiastic about him last season, but for a few months, he seems to fit nicely. It's hard to judge him solely based on stat and recap, but I think he could be a nice fit in phx.

Ok, finally, in order to fix my thought about LA, I really don't like Kobe but I think he merits to be MVP, he has been very good for a long time, he has been very good this year and wasn't as arrogant than in the past, and the last few games were in my opinion proof that he should receive the award over CP3. Nash is right: give the award to the best player of NO or LA depending on who finish first.

Tonight, I won't wait for the game, but I would like to have a nice live blogging in order to read the posts tomorrow morning!

Enjoy, and GO SUNS

where full french will surely happen during the playoff

by warmup on Apr 14, 2008 2:45 PM MST up reply actions

Question-

Phoenix Stan-
"We deffinately want the Nugs to win to help kill any hope the Warriors will have."

Why don't we want the Warriors in the playoffs? Do you think Denver will have a better shot at beating LA? (BEAT LA!!!) That may be true, but man, do I dislike the Nuggets, and the playoffs would be so much more fun with the Warriors.

by DaPHXisin on Apr 14, 2008 10:30 AM MST reply actions

both are good for the lakers

warriors have a history of not being able to beat LA that often, and nuggets got swept in the season series so either one is good for the lakers (though I want the nuggets b/c they seem a tad easier)

Shaq:"The kobster, he's an assassin" Answer for who should be mvp.

by ldeep on Apr 14, 2008 11:06 AM MST up reply actions

I could be wrong but..

If Houston beats Utah in their upcoming game and we win out, doesn't that make Utah the 4th seed and us the 5th with home court advantage?

by brian13 on Apr 14, 2008 10:35 AM MST reply actions

It's all over the map right now

Dallas looked dead in the water, then rose up and bit the Suns on the ass last week. Houston mopped the floor with the Suns on Friday, then dropped to the Nugs last night. The Spurs look like the weakest team out there (?!?!) right now with Ginobli hobbled, the Hornets suddenly look a little worn down, and the Lakers might be world-beaters, or they might be the team that lost to Memphis last week.

The Suns continue to be their own worst enemy in terms of focus, but hopefully that won't be an issue starting next weekend. They could flame out early or win it all, can't wait to see!

by SoCalSun on Apr 14, 2008 11:21 AM MST reply actions

defending the lakers again (its what I do)

For that Memphis game we didn't have gasol so that was a big reason. Now that I said that you guys should check this article out if you already haven't

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-32-49/A-Four-Way-Tie-Would-be-Magnificent.html

If you don't know about the complicated matter of the nba that is the tiebreaker (and you guys could be walking into a four way tie breaker) you should check it out.

Shaq:"The kobster, he's an assassin" Answer for who should be mvp.

by ldeep on Apr 14, 2008 2:11 PM MST reply actions