Bright Side Of The Sun: FanPosts

What McDonough can do with number 5

2013-05-22T18:09:29Z

It's exciting as a suns fan to have a GM who really knows what he's doing. Analyzing the draft is his specialty and what better way to start then the number 5 pick. My one fear is that our good friend Sarver will scare him away or under value his expertise, like he has done to anyone with talent that has been connected to the Suns organization. I feel the Suns need to trade some of their current players for a true scorer and use this pick for the most talent and upside possible. Anthony Bennett would be a great choice.

A Mock Draft

2013-05-22T13:10:06Z

I can't seem to sleep tonight, so why the heck not? I'll give my pick based on position, and then thoughts on potential trades.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers - Nerlens Noel

Noel and McLemore are the 1st tier in this draft, and the Cavs just drafted a SG at #4 last year, who they are unlikely to give up on so quickly. Cleveland needs a real center, as both Anderson Varajao and Tristan Thompson are really power forwards, so Noel it is.

Trade Watch: Cleveland also needs help at SF, and could potentially trade down to get Otto Porter.

2. Orlando Magic - Ben McLemore

Because Noel is already off the board, and he's the other best player in this draft.

Trade Watch: Orlando needs PG help, and some mocks even have them taking Burke at #2. Doubt it - if they want Burke, I think they trade down a few spots.

3. Washington Wizards - Otto Porter

The primary need for the Wizards is shooting. Porter shot 42% on the long ball on over 3 attempts per game. The secondary need for Washington is to replace or extend Trevor Ariza and/or Emeka Okafor, as their contracts will expire after this season. Porter may replace Ariza, for cheaper, freeing them up salary to extend Wall, which is another need.

Trade Watch: The Wizards could really use a frontcourt player who can shoot, and it is conceivable that they could trade their suddenly-valuable pick in order to acquire veteran help there.

4. Charlotte ~~Bobcats~~ Hornets - Victor Oladipo

The Bobcat/Hornets are set at PG and SF, with gaping holes everywhere else, but especially at SG, as they don't currently have a classic SG on roster that's worth mentioning. Oladipo's also ready to contribute now, which the Horn-cats need, as they are in win-now mode (lol) as evidenced by their pulling their coach... again.

Trade Watch: The Cats have a long and glorious history of trading back into the bottom of the 1st round to pick up marginal wing players, who they then give major minutes to. Carolina sharpshooter Reggie Bullock is a hot local player who fills a need, and should be somewhere near the bottom of the 1st.

5. Phoenix Suns - Alex Len

New GM McDonough needs to build a completely new team, not patch the existing one up, and those sorts of projects often start with a big man. With Marcin Gortat set to be an unrestricted FA after next year, and Jermaine O'Neal potentially retiring, the Suns also address a need. The Suns legendary training staff and willingness to suck next year to get another high pick make Len's injury less worrisome.

Trade Watch: This is a fire sale, so the possibility of existing players being dealt for current/future draft picks is certainly there.

6. NOLA Pelicans - Shabazz Muhammed

The Pelicans are stacked with young talent in the frontcourt, and appear committed to the Austin Rivers experiment at shooting guard, based on comments from their brass at the draft lottery. With Xavier Henry and Al-Fariq Aminu's contracts expiring, Muhammed addresses a positional need.

Trade Watch: Shabazz is a little stretch at 6, and it would make sense for the Pelicans to trade down a few spots to acquire him, netting them perhaps another pick.

7. Sacramento Kings - Anthony Bennett

Let's assume they pass on Trey Burke, given that undersized guards Isaiah Thomas, Jimmer Fredette, and Aaron Brooks are already on roster, and the Kings are finally Maloof-free. Bennett is the best talent in the mock here, having dropped somewhat, and UNLV is close enough to Sac for people there to know who Bennett is.

Trade Watch: The Kings roster is filled with marginal contributors. The Kings need to move some of those contracts out, and contending teams might be tempted to take a Travis Outlaw or a Patrick Patterson in exchange for their late 1st rounder.

8. Detroit Pistons - Trey Burke

Detroit needs backcourt help. Burke is a local hero after playing at Michigan. Is there any way the P's don't take Burke if he's on the board?

Trade Watch: With almost $34M coming off their books in free agency, the Pistons are ready to make a run at free agency. Can't see them tying up much of that space with trades, until after they've been passed over by the Dwight Howards and Chris Paul's of the world.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves - Sergey Karasev

Kevin Love says the Wolves need a shooter to space the floor, and with Kahn out, and nice-guy coach turned first time GM Flip Saunders manning the chair, I think Love and Adelman may actually be calling the shots at this point. Karasev fits the bill as a good shooter, and can come over from Russia immediately. He would also be the 3rd Russian on the team (Kirilenko, Shved) which probably doesn't hurt any.

Trade Watch: 4 rotation-worthy PG's on the Wolves roster. Somebody's gotta go...

10. Portland Trailblazers - Rudy Gobert

For all the Blazers posturing about moving up to get Oladipo, what they really need is a paint presence. Their interior defense was pitiful last year. International pick Gobert will play immediately and patrol the paint. The Blazers continue their long, glorious history of picking, and then breaking, elite big men in the draft.

Trade Watch: Rumors are that Portland is looking to trade up to get Oladipo. Which means they are really trying to get someone else to drop... who is that? Shabazz?

11. Philadelphia 76ers - Steven Adams

With the failure of the Andrew Bynum experiment, the Sixers need frontcourt help in a big way, and Adams is nothing if not big, clocking in at 7' and 255, and posting impressive measurables at the combine. Adams also played at Pitt, nearby, so the gigantic Kiwi is already acquainted with Pennsylvania hospitality.

Trade Watch: The Sixers will have some capspace and a need to address at SG.

12. OKC Thunder - Cody Zeller

Zeller is ready to help a team now, and OKC could use interior help. The Gazelle(r)'s transition game could also be a draw for the Thunder, who might look to change up their style if they let Perkins go.

Trade Watch: Perkins.

13. Dallas Mavericks - CJ McCollum

Dallas is trading out of this pick. Take a look at their roster, and the only players under contract are Nowitzski, Marion, Vince Carter, and 2 rookie scale contracts. Nowitzski is offering to take a pay cut to bring in talent. Mark Cuban fancies Dallas as a big-market team that can draw premier free agents, and the Mavs roster the past few years reflects preparation to make that splash in free agency. If, however, the Mavs decided to keep the pick, then they do need a guard, and McCollum has fallen about as far as he can fall.

Trade Watch: Dallas would like to trade back this pick for either a cheap role player or a future year pick. If McCollum falls this far, someone will make that deal to trade up for him.

14. Utah Jazz - Dennis Schroeder

Their PG's this year were Randy Foye and Jamaal Tinsley. And neither is under contract next year.

Trade Watch: The Jazz play hardball in trade talks, which is why most of the time, the rumors about Jazz trades don't come to fruition. More of the same.

I can't seem to sleep tonight, so why the heck not? I'll give my pick based on position, and then thoughts on potential trades.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers - Nerlens Noel

Trade Watch: Cleveland also needs help at SF, and could potentially trade down to get Otto Porter.

2. Orlando Magic - Ben McLemore

Because Noel is already off the board, and he's the other best player in this draft.

Trade Watch: Orlando needs PG help, and some mocks even have them taking Burke at #2. Doubt it - if they want Burke, I think they trade down a few spots.

3. Washington Wizards - Otto Porter

Trade Watch: The Wizards could really use a frontcourt player who can shoot, and it is conceivable that they could trade their suddenly-valuable pick in order to acquire veteran help there.

4. Charlotte ~~Bobcats~~ Hornets - Victor Oladipo

5. Phoenix Suns - Alex Len

Trade Watch: This is a fire sale, so the possibility of existing players being dealt for current/future draft picks is certainly there.

6. NOLA Pelicans - Shabazz Muhammed

Trade Watch: Shabazz is a little stretch at 6, and it would make sense for the Pelicans to trade down a few spots to acquire him, netting them perhaps another pick.

7. Sacramento Kings - Anthony Bennett

8. Detroit Pistons - Trey Burke

Detroit needs backcourt help. Burke is a local hero after playing at Michigan. Is there any way the P's don't take Burke if he's on the board?

9. Minnesota Timberwolves - Sergey Karasev

Trade Watch: 4 rotation-worthy PG's on the Wolves roster. Somebody's gotta go...

10. Portland Trailblazers - Rudy Gobert

Trade Watch: Rumors are that Portland is looking to trade up to get Oladipo. Which means they are really trying to get someone else to drop... who is that? Shabazz?

11. Philadelphia 76ers - Steven Adams

Trade Watch: The Sixers will have some capspace and a need to address at SG.

12. OKC Thunder - Cody Zeller

Trade Watch: Perkins.

13. Dallas Mavericks - CJ McCollum

Trade Watch: Dallas would like to trade back this pick for either a cheap role player or a future year pick. If McCollum falls this far, someone will make that deal to trade up for him.

14. Utah Jazz - Dennis Schroeder

Their PG's this year were Randy Foye and Jamaal Tinsley. And neither is under contract next year.

Trade Watch: The Jazz play hardball in trade talks, which is why most of the time, the rumors about Jazz trades don't come to fruition. More of the same.

Bright spot at the 30th

2013-05-22T04:05:53Z

As had predicted by many, this draft is a weak class, but actually it is draft class full of surprise, excluding the usual suspects, here are some sleepers that might actually help us in the 30th pick http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1646713-nba-draft-2013-under-the-radar-prospects-that-will-sneak-into-first-round there is mock draft predict us to take Tony Snell at the 30th, which i think is a good pick, and Tim Hardaway Jr is actually not included in the top 30 , which is a nice surprise.. so one of these 2 might be the uncut diamond for us

Trade Value and Trade Potential of Suns Assets

2013-05-20T07:28:43Z

Introduction

So, when I posted a breakdown of what I thought the Suns would be doing in terms of the draft and free agency this offseason a few weeks ago, a lot of the feedback was about how likely the Suns were to make offseason trades, and how this would drastically affect free agent moves and what we do in the draft. So I thought I would break down the trade value and trade potential of the various Suns assets in a similar way to how I broke down free agent targets and draft targets: paint a picture of the options available. Like when dealing with draft and free agent acquisitions, there are really infinite trade possibilities and, as such, this is just a breakdown of what I think some of the more likely ways of moving our assets are.

At the very bottom of the post is a handy chart I put together, looking at what I perceive to be the trade value and trade potential of all of the Suns assets (draft picks through 2014 included). Sorry it is at the bottom, but because I created it outside the application, it doesn't play nice with the formatting.

A brief explanation of the chart and its logic. The left-right value is attempting to capture how much interest there would seem to be in a player. A lot of this I based upon consideration of a player's contract, his position, and his production. The top-bottom value is based upon how much a player could feasibly fetch in return in a trade. This took into account again contract, but also the depth of the position across the league that the player plays, and the teams that would seemingly be most interested in acquiring this player. IF YOU WANT TO SIMPLY SEE THE END RESULT, SCROLL DOWN TO THE CHART. ALL ROADS LEAD TO THE CHART! Also, if you want to see a discussion of a particular player, simply scroll until you see their picture.

So, without further ado, here we go. Buckle your seat belts.

The Picks

The Suns' pick next year is likely to be at least mid-lottery. Both of the Suns' picks, then, have relatively high values. Lottery picks, even in weak-ish drafts like this one, are a valuable commodity. The 2014 pick is seen as having a high potential primarily because of the popular perception that next year's draft is projected to be so much deeper, meaning that the pick has more potential value in a trade today. That being said, it seems much more likely that the Suns' 2013 lottery pick is moved: I would not be surprised to see the Suns move down and acquire multiple late lottery/mid teens picks, especially if we end up at 6 of 7. I would be surprised if the Suns moved their pick for next year or moved up in the draft.

The 2014 first round pick from Minnesota is a little harder to grade. It is lottery protected (top-13) next season, but if the Timberwolves can finally get healthy, this pick could feasibly fall in the high teens/low twenties. This is a useful asset as a toss-in in a trade, but given the uncertainty surrounding the pick, it doesn't seem like something teams are going to be actively pursuing until next season.

The 30th pick in this year's draft doesn't have a ton of value, due to the draft's overall shallow depth pool. However, it could still garner something from a competitive team that needs one more piece, especially if that piece is a rotation big, as this year's draft is particularly deep in that regard. A team in win now mode, like the Spurs, is probably the most likely to actually pursue this pick. It is also likely a toss-in asset in any larger trade or any trade down.

2nd round picks are swapped all the time, but we already swapped our 2nd round pick, and the pick we currently have is very low value.

Point Guards

Goran Dragic

via knickswag.com

Dragic provides something of an immediate conundrum for the front office and Ryan McDonough. He's not a superstar, and likely never will be. He is, however, the best player on the team and the most valuable. He's got definite pros as a player: he's an above average distributor, an active architect of the offense, and can carry the scoring load when necessary. However, he also has cons: he's only an average defender, he is not terribly efficient as a scorer, and he still turns the ball over too much.

The biggest problem with Dragic that the front office faces is that, given the depth of the PG position right now, there are very few teams that would seemingly be interested in Dragic. Only 4 teams can be said to be realistically desperate for a starting caliber PG: Sacramento, Utah, Dallas and Orlando. The Lakers, Hawks and Pacers are all potentially looking for a point guard, but a starting caliber point guard is likely not on their radar.

Utah (2013 starter Mo Williams/Jamaal Tinsley) has few assets they would seemingly be willing to part with other than Alec Burks, but they really need consistent point guard play, and the Utah front office is notoriously secretive and unpredictable. Any trade with the Jazz would likely involve Burks and at least one of their two first round picks (14 and 21). An interesting potential move would be Burks and the two picks for our lottery pick and Dragic, though I imagine some BrightSiders just had a panic attack.

The Mavericks (2013 starter by committee) have next to no assets of real worth to offer in a trade for Dragic. Bernard James and Jae Crowder (and potentially Brandan Wright if they re-sign him) all have role-player value, but aren't going to cut it in a trade for Dragic. Mark Cuban would have to wheel and deal, likely dealing a player (probably Crowder), the lottery pick this season (projected 13) and cash if he wanted to land Dragic.

Sacramento (2013 starter Isaiah Thomas) has DeMarcus Cousins and Tyreke Evans, as well as young assets in Marcus Thornton, Isaiah Thomas, Jason Thompson, Toney Douglas and Jimmer Fredette. They also possess the #6 pick in this draft. They really need solid play out of the point guard position, and Evans and Thomas cannot provide that. Given the recent sale of the team, however, I don't know how active the team is going to be on the trade market. Any trade here, however, would likely have to include Evans/Thornton and Thomas, however.

Orlando (2013 starter Jameer Nelson/Beno Udrih) seemingly would have the most to offer in return for Dragic, and also the most need for him. Point guard was their biggest weakness last season. They have young assets in Nikola Vucevic, Kyle O'Quinn, Andrew Nicholson, Tobias Harris, Moe Harkless and Doron Lamb. Their lottery pick, likely top 3, is probably off the board. A trade would have to include at least one of these players, maybe two, Jameer Nelson, and a future conditional first rounder.

Overall, I don't think the chances of Dragic getting moved are very high. He's the best player on very bad team, which normally doesn't speak to great job security in the NBA. But the market just isn't there for him. The two teams that could use him the most and are in win-now scenarios seem to have little to realistically offer, while the younger teams seem like they are looking for more long-term prospects, just like us. This leaves Dragic at a Medium Value/Low Potential rating.

Kendall Marshall

via cdn3.sbnation.com

I don't think anyone is really out there asking about Marshall's availability for a trade, which is somewhat disappointing for an 11th pick one year removed from being drafted.

That being said, it wasn't all negative last season. He showed that he can be a really steady distributor of the basketball. If he can cut his turnovers down and play even a modicum of defense, he has staying power as a backup, a la Jamaal Tinsley.

Because of his age and his rookie contract, he has some value as added money and developmental potential in a trade featuring other players.

That being said, I'd be surprised if he was moved. This leaves him at Low Value/Medium Potential.

Shooting Guards

Jared Dudley

via cdn.hoopshype.com

Dudley isn't the most traditional of shooting guards, but since that is largely where he played this last season, he's going to be lumped here. He had somewhat of a disappointing season, and was largely unable to take the reins of the team, largely confirming what many of us thought beforehand: his perfect role is probably as a 6th man.

Now, being lumped in with the shooting guards has its advantages for Dudley. He actually grades out as a very solid 2 guard in the league, at least partially because of how weak the position is overall, with aging stars declining (Vince Carter, Kobe Bryant, Joe Johnson) and young players not developing the way teams had hoped (Eric Gordon, Iman Shumpert, Alec Burks). Dudley is a lights out spot up shooter from beyond the arc and with deep twos, and he established this year that he is a more than willing distributor. All is not fabulous, however: he is a fairly underwhelming athlete, which translates into subpar rebounding and defense generally. Some of this is mitigated when playing at the 2 guard because of his size advantage, but its still a concern.

What type of team does Dudley seem to fit? He would have a lot of value on a team that lacks a legitimate outside shooter. While he could be seen as a starting shooting guard, he also would be a great asset for any team looking for an offensive minded 6th man. This makes him a valuable commodity, and really any team could use him. In particular, the Grizzlies, Mavericks, Nuggets, Bulls, 76ers, Pacers and Hawks, given their current 2 guard situation, seem like possible destinations.

With Memphis (2013 starter Tony Allen), Dudley is likely a 6th man G/F. He would basically be a replacement for Jerryd Bayless, and would be the scoring threat on the second unit, more or less in charge of the offense. He could also potentially be the starter, depending on how the situation with Tony Allen plays out in free agency. The most intriguing prospect that the Grizzlies would potentially make available is Ed Davis, but Donte Greene, Jon Leuer and Qunicy Pondexter are all interesting as well. The Grizzlies, however, do not have any picks to offer until next season.

The Mavericks (2013 starter OJ Mayo) look like they may be parting ways with Mayo, which leaves them with a scoring gap at 2 guard. With the Mavs, Dudley projects as a starter. The Mavs don't really have any assets, though Jae Crowder is somewhat reminiscent of a young Dudley (think defensive minded rather than offensive). However, their late lottery pick, in conjunction with Crowder, may be enough to turn some heads in the front office.

The Nuggets (2013 starter Andre Iguodala) are perhaps the least likely to make this type of move: they drafted Evan Fournier last year, and are actively trying to retain Andre Iguodala. However, if they cannot retain Iggy, Dudley seems like a fair consolation target. Denver has young assets in Fournier, Jordan Hamilton, Quincy Miller and Julyan Stone, as well as the 27th pick in this year's draft. A combination of one or two of the aforementioned players and the late first rounder might be enough to land Dudley.

The Bulls (2013 starter Rip Hamilton/Marco Belinelli) struggled at the SG position this season. While Belinelli continued his adequate 6th man scoring production, he is not a starting caliber guard, and Hamilton is increasingly showing his age. With the Bulls, Dudley projects as a starter. What the Bulls lack, however, is the intriguing young talent that is likely to make a trade like this work. Jimmy Butler is their best asset, but he's likely untouchable after his fantastic playoff performance. That leaves only picks, and with the Bulls picking at 20, there isn't much value to be had.

The 76ers (2013 starter Damien Wilkins/Jason Richardson) might have actually been a playoff contender with better production from the 2 guard spot. The SG position is currently the oldest on the team, and pretty desperately needs an upgrade if they are going to compete. Young assets that could potentially be available include Evan Turner, Arnett Moultrie, Justin Holiday (brother of Jrue, a D-League monster but relatively unproven at the NBA level) and Thaddeus Young, and they also possess a late lottery pick (likely 11). They could potentially be in the market for a starting center, as well, as the Bynum saga winds down.

The Pacers (2013 starter Lance Stephenson) might seem something of a stretch, given their current playoff run and the at least somewhat acceptable development of Stephenson and rookie backup Orlando Johnson. However, this was by far Indy's weakest position this season, and an upgrade at least seems like a possibility. The team is somewhat lacking in young assets, but Stephenson and Johnson are likely available, as well as their 23rd pick in the draft. A trade would likely have to include one of those two, the pick, and perhaps a second rounder.

Finally, for the Hawks (2013 starter Devin Harris/Lou Williams) a true catch a shoot threat could potentially be a good complement to the slashing Jeff Teague and the high post threat of Al Horford. Whether a starter or a 6th man behind Lou Williams, Dudley would be a real threat. The Hawks to some degree lack young, available talent, with John Jenkins (at the moment a poor man's Dudley) the only real player worth anything. However, the Hawks do possess the 17th and 18th picks in the draft, which could have interesting trade value for the Suns if international players who would remain in Europe next year are available (Rudy Gobert, Giannis Adetokunbo).

Dudley's particularly reasonable contract, and the dearth of talent at the SG position, make him a legitimate trade chip. While the possibility of him being moved isn't great (largely for those same reasons), I would not be surprised at all if he is moved, which leaves him at a Medium Value/Medium Potential rating.

PJ Tucker

via www.latimes.com

Tucker is a weird one to grade. His trade potential is high, primarily because he is the kind of energy/effort guy that almost any team would want. Its true that his stats weren't particularly good, but they also weren't particularly bad: averaging his positional ranking among shooting guards who played at least 20 games and at least 10 minutes a game (69 players) he came in 53 ins TS%, 24 in Win Score, 6 in Defensive Rebound Rate, 34 in Usage Rate and 48 in Effective Field Goal %, for an average of around 34, or a top tier second unit player.

His weaknesses are notable: he's not a prolific scorer, nor an efficient one, and he's not exactly a great athlete.

However, he's a stingy defender, a fantastic rebounder, a does many of the little things on the court that coaches and superstars love.

He would be a good addition for teams that don't need him to score, but could utilize his energy. While any team could realistically use him, there are a few teams that tend to pursue players like Tucker: San Antonio, Miami, and both Los Angeles teams.

San Antonio (2013 starter Danny Green) might not seem obvious, what with Ginobli providing backup minutes for most of the season. The future is uncertain with Ginobli, however, and if he isn't retained a move to a more defensive minded backup guard doesn't seem unlikely with the departure of Stephen Jackson as well. It wouldn't seem terribly unlikely that a win-now team like the Spurs would move this years first (28) for a more proven commodity.

Miami (2013 starter Dwayne Wade) thrives with players like Tucker. Tucker would be a third string 2 guard, but given the age and health concerns for both Ray Allen and Dwayne Wade, he would likely be a useful insurance policy. Miami doesn't have a pick, but they do have an interesting prospect in Jarvis Varnado (who McDonough should be familiar with from his time with the Celtics), as well as Chalmers, who has developed into something of a hybrid guard for Miami.

Th Lakers (2013 starter Kobe Bryant) were a mess last season, and project to have serious problems at the 2 guard while waiting for Kobe to return. Realistically, they probably need a scorer more than a defender at the position, but since the pickup is likely a temporary one, a player like Tucker is perhaps the best option, one willing to platoon the position with Steve Blake and Andrew Goudelock. The Lakers' best asset is probably Jordan Hill (likely would require a pick with Tucker), but a swap for Goudelock or Earl Clark (the prodigal Sun returns) are possibilities.

The Clippers (starter Chauncey Billups/Eric Bledsoe) really struggled at time on perimeter defense. Billups looked old defending more explosive players, and Jamal Crawford has never heard of this thing you call defense. With Billups' contract expiring and Willie Green's non-guaranteed, bringing in a solid wing defender to back up the soon to be (almost inevitably) starter Crawford. The problem is, the Clippers lack any real trade assets other than their 1st round pick at 25.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Tucker was moved, because of all the desirables he brings to a team. That being said, he isn't worth all that much. A developmental rotation player or a very late first/early second round pick are probably all he would fetch in a straight swap. He seems more likely to be moved as part of a bigger trade than almost any player on the roster, though. For that reason, I rate him as Low Value/High Potential.

Shannon Brown

via valleyofthesuns.com

Shannon Brown's 2012-2013 was a season to forget. He posted his lowest TS% since 07-08, and saw his ORtg fall below below 100 for the first time since 07-08. There were some bright spots: his Steal % increased modestly, and his Assist % actually increased substantially. These help mitigate what was otherwise a negative season.

Brown continues to provide what he has always provided: low efficiency, high volume scoring. He provides little defense and marginal rebounding. He fits on a team that needs an offensive spark on an otherwise defensively oriented second unit (think the role of Earl Boykins on the 10-11 Bucks, where he played with Larry Sanders, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, etc.).

There are a few teams like this at the moment. One potential target is the Celtics, with their second unit featuring Avery Bradley, Jared Sullinger and likely Fab Melo. A second possibility could be the Warriors, whose second unit looks likely to lose Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack to free agency but otherwise features Festus Ezeli, Andris Biedrins and Draymond Green.

Boston (2013 starter Paul Pierce) features a lot of backup 2 guards, but none of them have really worked as a scoring threat. If Avery Bradley moves back to the backup PG role with a healthy Rondo, that leaves Courtney Lee, Jordan Crawford and Terrence Williams as the potential shooting guard core. That doesn't elicit much excitement, as Lee has been something of a disappointment in Boston and Crawford and Williams are arguably less useful versions of Brown. The problem is, a trade with Boston would likely be for a marginal talent like Crawford, or a second round pick in next year's draft.

The Warriors (2013 starter Klay Thompson) are an interesting option. Brown would provide a scoring threat off the bench that this season was provided by Jarrett Jack (likely to be lost to UFA). With Brandon Rush also likely a victim of free agency (player option for $4 million, market value likely slightly higher) a player who can create his own shot, if somewhat inefficiently, and lead a second unit offense becomes more valuable. The Warriors don't have a ton of available talent or picks this season, but Scott Machado is an interesting player that could be had for cheap.

I would really be surprised if Shannon Brown was traded this offseason as anything more than a toss-in. The fact that one even struggles to find a team that could use his particular skill set speaks to his lack of overall value. For this reason, Brown is rated as Low Value/Low Potential.

Small Forwards

Michael Beasley

via cdn0.sbnation.com

Oh, how the...well, if never quite mighty, than at least heady, have fallen. Beasley's value became almost non-existent this season, as he showcased how a player can almost singlehandedly orchestrate a teams disastrous fall into an offensively inefficient black hole. While he is still young (24) and arguably was playing out of position (probably more naturally a 4), his atrocious season and recent troubles with the law make him an unlikely trade target for any team.

Teams with a heavy handed veteran presence in the locker room could potentially control Beasley. Also a team that theoretically would want to play him at the 4. One team immediately comes to mind: the Clippers. Other possibilities include the Mavericks, Spurs and potentially the Grizzlies.

The Clippers (2013 starter Caron Butler) come to mind because they could potentially lose their backup PF and both their backup SFs to free agency or retirement this offseason. Beasley's versatility in being able to play both positions could come in handy for them. The strong locker room presence of Chris Paul, glue guys like Ryan Hollins and Ronny Turiaf, as well as potentially Chauncey Billups, Grant Hill and Caron Butler (who had a rocky road early in his career as well), could be enough to keep Beasley more focused on the court. Again, the Clippers lack any real assets, but as this would be almost akin to a salary dump, we could potentially trade Beasley and some cash for a second rounder to be rid of the contract and a perhaps unwanted distraction.

The Mavericks (2013 starter Shawn Marion) are in total rebuild mode, but the pieces that look likely to remain (Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Elton Brand and Vince Carter) are all relatively high character guys at this point in their careers who have accomplished just about everything, and that could keep Beasley more grounded. The second unit could really use a strong potential scorer (considering it does not exist at this point). Again, no real assets, but a the 44th overall could probably be had if we tossed in some cash value.

The Spurs (2013 starter Kawhi Leonard) are a long shot, but if anyone could control Beasley it is Gregg Popovich, who managed to win a championship with the mercurial Stephen Jackson. The Spurs also project to needs a backup power forward next season. We would likely be swapping Beasley and cash to cover some of his contract for either a marginal prospect or the 58th overall pick.

Finally, the Grizzlies (2013 starter Tayshaun Prince). Why would a playoff team take a chance on a player like Beasley? Well, first, the Grizzlies are not an efficient team: their PPWS is actually right around the same as the Suns'. The make up for it with superb offensive rebounding. So Beasley's lack of efficiency is less damning. Second, the backups at SF fail to inspire any real offensive confidence: Donte Greene and Austin Daye don't really grade out a whole lot better than Beasley. Finally, the Grizzlies don't have a pick until 41 this season, so a trade is one of their better options for making small tweaks to the roster. A trade would likely include a swap of Donte Greene for Beasley, and could include us sending some cash back. We might be able to grab the 41st or 60th pick this season.

Any trade involving just Beasley is likely to be a swap for a marginal player/second round pick, and involve us covering some of Beasley's contract. He might be used as a salary balancer in some trade (including him and in return taking back less value). His contract is much too large, and his production far to inefficient, for him to be easily moved. For these reasons, I rate him at Low Value/Low Potential.

Marcus Morris

via cdn0.sbnation.com

It is hard to really evaluate Morris' worth on the trade market. His unceremonious exit from Houston raises some red flags, and his play in Phoenix was far from good. Then again, with Houston he at times flashed some really solid potential, enough to indicate he might actually have a future as an NBA reserve. One wonders if perhaps Morris was just a victim of the rise of Donatas Montiejunas and Thomas Robinson in Houston.

Questions have begun to surface about Marcus' character, which could potentially limit his potential for being traded. It might also raise flags with other GMs that the organization is so willing to move an asset they just recently acquired, but new GMs have been known to do crazier things.

Who might be interested in Morris? The team would have to be in need of bench scoring from a 3 or a stretch forward, and not be that concerned about defense from that player. A few teams come to mind: the Nets, Cavaliers, Bucks, Wizards, Grizzlies and Trail Blazers.

The Nets (2013 starter Gerald Wallace) are in need of a SF that can actually stretch the floor, which is far from the strong suit of Wallace or reserve Tornike Shengelia. With sometime reserve Jerry Stackhouse going on 39, the Nets are likely looking for a replacement. The Nets have two interesting prospects: Shengelia, who is young (21) and a solid defender and rebounder, and MarShon Brooks (24), who fell from favor last year and averaged just over 12 minutes per game. A swap of Morris for one of those players seems the most likely move.

The Cavaliers' (2013 starter Alonzo Gee) weakest position last year was at small forward. They seem likely to draft a SF, but regardless, would still be in need a better bench option than Alonzo Gee if they want to really turn the corner. The Cavs don't have much available young talent (though Kevin Jones looks interesting at times and Wayne Ellington could potentially be available), so this trade would likely be Morris for a pick (they have 31 this season).

The Bucks (2013 starter Luc Richard Mbah a Moute) featured a lot of defensive specialists at the 3 and 4 spots this season, but not much in the way of offensive talent (minus the hot and cold Ersan Ilyasova). Morris would be an upgrade there. They have some young assets (John Henson, Ekpe Udoh) but I don't know how valuable they would be to us, or how willing the Bucks would be to simply swap them. This seems like a pick-for-player swap if it were to materialize (perhaps pick 43).

The Wizards (2013 starter Martell Webster) had low efficiency play from the SF position last season when Webster was on the bench. With Trevor Ariza projected as the starter and Chris Singleton a non-threat offensively, the team looks like it could use a ranged threat at 3. An intriguing trade would be Morris for the enigma that is Jan Vesely. This seems like it could likely be a straight swap, and Vesely (who mostly played out of position last season at the 4), still has upside, which Morris arguably doesn't, even if he is the better player currently.

The Grizzlies (2013 starter Tayshaun Prince), for the same reasons they might want Beasley, could use Morris. A swap here could likely include Jon Leuer (if they included pick 55 or 60), Ed Davis (if we included a pick, potentially the 30), or a pick-for-player swap for a future pick.

The Trail Blazers (2013 starter Nicolas Batum) had an absolutely anemic bench last season. It was terrible. Claver, the nominal backup SF, didn't show he had any ability to play at the NBA level. Upgrading the bench is likely priority number 1 for the Blazers, and Morris would definitely be an upgrade. Likely swaps would be Will Barton, Claver, or one or more of their 3 second round picks.

Moving Marcus seems like a pretty distinct possibility. He has some value on the market beyond that which the rest of our young assets likely command. Yet Morris really doesn't seem to fit in with the teams future. Overall, I rate him a Medium Value/Medium Potential, though is value is definitely lower than Scola, Dudley or Gortat.

Power Forwards

Luis Scola

via cdn0.sbnation.com

Scola has something of an odd skill set for today's NBA. He can't shoot from beyond the arc to save his life, but he's also not a slashing/post player in a Blake Griffin mold. Instead, he's an expert at the pick and pop, mid-range jumper game, which is increasingly out of fashion in the NBA. He's among the NBA's best mid-range shooters at the 4, however. His defense in general leaves something to be desired, and he's only a so-so rebounder. He is also relatively old (33) and not playing on an entirely favorable contract (will make $4.3 next season) for a rebuilding team looking to get younger. For a contender, this level of production to contract is entirely acceptable. This makes me think he is likely to be the number 1 trade target for new GM McDonough this offseason.

Who would be interested in Scola? Given his age and contract, it likely would have to be a team that is currently a competitor, and that could use a bench scorer or a solid, 25 minute a night power forward. It should also be a team that doesn't need a 3 pt specialist as, like mentioned before, Scola has a pretty terrible 3 pt shooting percentage.

That somewhat limits the teams that could be interested. I think the teams most likely to express some interest are: the Spurs, the Heat, the Knicks, the Grizzlies, the Clippers and, potentially, the Bulls.

For the Spurs (2013 starter Tim Duncan) a lot will revolve around how the situation at center plays out. If they lose Tiago Splitter and Duncan has to play more minutes at the 5, then Scola becomes a much more valuable asset. The Spurs don't have many young assets, but Aron Baynes, Cory Joseph or Patty Mills could potentially be combined with either a future conditional first rounder or this season's 28.

The Heat (2013 starter Udonis Haslem) could use a player like Scola, given the large dropoff in play from Haslem in recent years, but the logistics are a nightmare given their cap situation. We could feasibly swap Scola for Haslem and Jarvis Varnado and then negotiate a retirement buyout with Haslem, or with Joel Anthony, but those are long shots. The fit seems right here, but the logistics just don't work very well.

The Knicks (2013 starter Carmelo Anthony), like the Heat, are in a tough cap situation. Their best case scenario would be Kidd and Camby deciding to retire. They could use a backup 4 who is a little better at scrapping inside the arc, which they lost when Rasheed Wallace and Kurt Thomas went down to injury. Feasibly, we could swap Scola for Camby and a pick (Camby has one more season guaranteed at roughly the same level as Scola) and negotiate a buyout with Camby, or alternately let him play out the season in a mentor role with the rookie big we are likely to have. There are more possibilities here than with the Heat, but the likelihood is still low.

The Clippers (2013 starter Blake Griffin) right now don't project to have a backup PF after they re-sign Chris Paul, unless Lamar Odom comes back for a much reduced salary (making $8 million in 2013). The only real asset the Clippers have that we might be interested in is the 25th pick, which make a trade unlikely, but not impossible if we are simply attempting to dump salary or are willing to accept a conditional first rounder next year as well (say, top 20 protected).

The Bulls (2013 starter Carlos Boozer) only fit here if the rumors are realized and Boozer is amnestied. If this happens, Taj Gibson projects as the new starter, and the team will need to somehow figure out how to replace Boozer's lost offensive production (hint: likely not with Taj Gibson). Scola and Boozer had remarkably similar seasons in 2013 offensively, so Scola could seemingly fit well. The Bulls don't have many assets, but do have the 20th pick in this year's draft, as well as Kirk Hinrich's expiring contract.

While I think Scola has to be at the top of the list of players to move this offseason because his value is never likely to be higher than it is now, as the list of teams suggests, I think the market will be tough. I rate him at Medium Value/Medium Potential.

Markieff Morris

via valleyofthesuns.com

Morris has limited value at this point. He has shown next-to-no improvement over the last few seasons, and is at this point a marginal bench player. His 42.7 EFG%, among the worst in the league among PFs, is an indicator of his offensive struggles, and these are only partially offset by his defense.

He's probably worth a veteran's minimum contract, but the problem is he's going to make $2 million next season. It is too much, given his level of production, and makes it really hard to think of a team that would realistically want him. I remember hearing rumors that the Timberwolves were interested in swapping Derrick Williams for Markieff before the season started, but those rumors have not resurfaced.

I think the only way Markieff gets moved is as part of a larger trade, where his contract can help even out salaries or where he can serve as a small developmental add-on to tip the scales. Otherwise, what he provides could likely be provided by a second round draft pick or an NBA journeyman for a fraction of the cost.

Channing Frye

via butthegameison.com

Unfortunately, this is more or less the closest Channing came to the court this season. As much as moving Frye makes sense given his age (30) and his contract ($6 million through 2014-15), he is basically immovable with his medical condition. Once he is cleared, he could become a credible trade chip, most likely to an already competitive team. But the latest is still that he has not been cleared to play, and as time goes by the likelihood of him coming back seems to diminish.

I rate him as Low Value/Low Potential until he is medically cleared, and then only Low Value/Medium Potential once cleared until he can re-establish himself on the court. He could potentially be used as a salary balancer, but even this seems unlikely.

Centers

Marcin Gortat

via cdn.bleacherreport.net

Probably the most divisive player on the Suns' roster in the eyes of fans, Gortat had a pretty bad season compared to his career averages. When compared to centers who played at least 20 mins a game and at least 40 games this season, and averaging positional rankings in offensive rebounding rate, blocks per game, TS%, win shares, usage rate and % of field goals from assists (a pick and roll proxy), Gortat comes up right in the middle of the pack, 16 out of 33.

Gorat's strenghts really lie in pick and roll offense. As the pick and roll game of the Suns declined this season, he saw his usage rate and TS% decline. He doesn't have much of a high post game, and can't stretch the floor, so he relies on shots in the paint. His team defense is seemingly above average, but he often struggles in man coverage against the bigger, stronger centers in the league right now.

At 29, Gortat probably doesn't fit into a rebuilding project, especially given his discontent with the team's lack of results this season. His contract is expiring, so the Suns could very well be in a position where they either trade him for something or let him walk for nothing next offseason.

Where would Gortat fit? There are more than a few possibilities: Boston, Portland, Oklahoma City, Atlanta and Dallas all come to mind.

Boston (2013 starter Kevin Garnett) have long been tied to Gortat rumors. A trade for Gortat would allow the Celtics to put Garnett back into his more natural PF position, something they have been attempting to do unsuccessfully since trading Kendrick Perkins. If Boston uses its amnesty on Paul Pierce or renegotiates his contract, the team suddenly has room to make a trade and absorb Gortat's contract. Boston has a few assets (Fab Melo, Jared Sullinger, Jordan Crawford, Avery Bradley) and the 16th pick in the draft this year, and a trade for Gortat would likely have to include at least one of the above players and the pick, though the amnesty of Pierce would make it so that the Suns wouldn't necessarily have to take a bad contract back in return.

Portland (2013 starter JJ Hickson) needs a center. They look likely to let Hickson walk, and Meyers Leonard still needs time to develop. The question is whether Gortat really fits. Fans and the front office alike were unhappy with the results of the Hickson experiment, yet a quick comparison (http://bkref.com/tiny/xeHG7) shows that Hickson was better in almost every regard to Gortat last season. Portland's chief asset in a trade would likely be their lottery pick this season (which doesn't cut it), but is is also conceivable that they could offer the lottery pick and Leonard.

Oklahoma City (2013 starter Kendrick Perkins) had the worst center play in the league last season. Perkins was an offensive liability and his defense dropped off the map. It was so bad, the team was actually better with Hasheem Thabeet on the court with the other starters than with Perkins (82games.com 5 man statistics). It seems almost an inevitability that the Thunder amnesty Perkins. I see no reason to include Perkins in any trade for Gortat: it isn't necessary to make the salaries even out, and it hurts the Suns more in the long run than actually keeping Gortat given Perkins' longer contract. Realistically, the Thunder could move Thabo Sefolosha (if they decide to retain Kevin Martin), Hasheem Thabeet, Perry Jones, Nick Collison or DeAndre Liggins to try to acquire Gortat. They also have the 12th and 29th picks in the draft. Some combination of the aforementioned players and picks could probably land Gortat.

Atlanta (2013 starter Zaza Pachulia) is free of Pachulia, and could be looking for an offensive upgrade at center. Bringing in Gortat could signal to Josh Smith that the team has a real interest in putting together a winner and help in continued negotiations there. Regardless, Gortat still projects as a nice pairing with Al Horford, who has a stretch game that could complement Gortat well, and with Jeff Teague, who runs a pretty solid pick and roll game. The Hawks have the 17th and 18th picks this year and John Jenkins, an interesting SG prospect, but not much else in the way of assets. The do, however, have a ton of cap space, even if they re-sign Josh Smith to a max contract (oh god).

Dallas (2013 starter Chris Kaman) is here because the Mavericks have holes at every position, and Mark Cuban has gobs of money. Kaman didn't produce much last season, and isn't likely to be brought back unless he takes a big pay cut (was making $8 million). The Mavericks, as highlighted, don't have many assets, but they do have Jae Crowder and Bernard James, as well as this year's 13th pick. It wouldn't surprise me if Crowder/James, the 13th pick and cash came in with this scenario.

There are some good options with Gortat. There are likely a few teams I haven't thought of who would be willing to take a shot at him. Part of the problem, however, is that given the depth at the 5 in this years draft (probably the most depth since 2000), a lot of the less competitive teams might be more interested in taking a shot at a draft prospect than the older Gortat. For this reason, I rate Gortat at Medium Value/Medium Potential.

Hamed Haddadi

via i.azcentral.com

Haddadi is the kind of player just about every team could use, but no team is actively pursuing. He provides a terrific rebounding presence off the bench with an almost unbelievable 19.9 total rebounding percentage. He's also a big plus defensively, altering shots and just in general taking up lane space.

His biggest weakness is he is absolutely atrocious on offense, with a 47.7 TS% and a far too high usage rate. But that's not really what you get a player like Haddadi for. He should be utilized as a defensive presence and rebounder. Nothing more, nothing less.

The only team I could see actively pursuing Haddadi would be the Heat. They have been in the market for a defensive presence in the frontcourt since the Big 3 were put together. Joel Anthony is not that. Chris Anderson was brought in midway through the season to take some of the burden, but he'll be 35 by the start of next season, and actually isn't quite as efficient a rebounder or shot blocker as Haddadi (I know, hard to believe, but true). Assuming we pick up Haddadi's option, he could be swapped for Jarvis Varnado or some future pick (2014).

I have Haddadi as Low Value/Medium Potential. He's the kind of player that teams would find useful in facilitating trades, and he does have some value to teams with need of second or third big off the bench.

Conclusion

Well, there you have it. This all breaks down into the handy little chart I mentioned at the beginning and that is featured just below this paragraph. This is certainly not an end-all be-all evaluation of the Suns' assets. In particular, I didn't deal with trades down or up in the lottery (up, in particular, because I doubt we have any assets a team high in the lottery would realistically want). What this is supposed to be is something of a long, drawn out and overly complicated way of thinking about the potential and value of Suns' assets in the trade market.

Thanks for reading this overly long post.

Trade Potential/Market

	High	Medium	Low
High	2014 1st Round (Suns)	2013 1st Round (Suns)
Medium		Luis Scola Marcin Gortat Jared Dudley Marcus Morris 2014 1st Round (via Minnesota)	Goran Dragic
Low	PJ Tucker 2013 1st Round (via Lakers)	Hamed Haddadi Markieff Morris Kendall Marshall	Shannon Brown Michael Beasley Channing Frye 2nd Round Picks

Trade Value

Introduction

So, without further ado, here we go. Buckle your seat belts.

The Picks

2nd round picks are swapped all the time, but we already swapped our 2nd round pick, and the pick we currently have is very low value.

Point Guards

Goran Dragic

via knickswag.com

Kendall Marshall

via cdn3.sbnation.com

I don't think anyone is really out there asking about Marshall's availability for a trade, which is somewhat disappointing for an 11th pick one year removed from being drafted.

Because of his age and his rookie contract, he has some value as added money and developmental potential in a trade featuring other players.

That being said, I'd be surprised if he was moved. This leaves him at Low Value/Medium Potential.

Shooting Guards

Jared Dudley

via cdn.hoopshype.com

PJ Tucker

via www.latimes.com

His weaknesses are notable: he's not a prolific scorer, nor an efficient one, and he's not exactly a great athlete.

However, he's a stingy defender, a fantastic rebounder, a does many of the little things on the court that coaches and superstars love.

Shannon Brown

via valleyofthesuns.com

Where would Gortat fit? There are more than a few possibilities: Boston, Portland, Oklahoma City, Atlanta and Dallas all come to mind.

Hamed Haddadi

via i.azcentral.com

Conclusion

Thanks for reading this overly long post.

Trade Potential/Market

	High	Medium	Low
High	2014 1st Round (Suns)	2013 1st Round (Suns)
Medium		Luis Scola Marcin Gortat Jared Dudley Marcus Morris 2014 1st Round (via Minnesota)	Goran Dragic
Low	PJ Tucker 2013 1st Round (via Lakers)	Hamed Haddadi Markieff Morris Kendall Marshall	Shannon Brown Michael Beasley Channing Frye 2nd Round Picks

Trade Value

Goran Dragić's interview, 18 may 2013

2013-05-19T19:41:12Z

Goran gave some informations to the Slovenian audience about recent season in NBA and his predictions for Eurobasket, which will be held in Slovenia in September. There are some interesting points for fans, I assume. First, I thought to translate Q&A, but because of the copyright (Made by Primož Salmič, published in Ekipa), it's better to summarize. (Sorry for grammar mistakes.)

Goran thinks, that this was his best season, but in the NBA nothing is guaranteed for future, so he must always fight for his position - next season is new chapter for him. Statistically he had better performances in Huston, but it was just 20 games compared with 77 this year. He was warned about fluctuations – if you are a starter – and he thinks, he was the most constant player in the Suns team, so he is pleased with his performance. Actually, this was essential for him. He also enjoyed authorization from both coaches to play his own basket, to show his quality. He prefers this style over European, which resembles more on robot. But, on the other side, he also mentioned, that in Huston he knew all the time where his team-mates will be, where the action will end. In Phoenix he could never be sure about that. There were more fluctuations, less discipline. First lineup was relatively successful, but when changes began, everything went down.

He repeated old news about problem with the team chemistry. It was a lot of new young, talented players, but the team was not functioning as a team. He had good relationship with Scola, Fry, Dudley and at the end also with Johnson. But now he heard rumours, that only three or four old players will be retained.

He was in the contact with McDonnough. He was asked about his opinion about the future of the Suns, what would be good for them. As future Suns coach he would like to see Kevin McHale.

On coaches. Alvin was better for established players. He knew, when to give them off, all was more in the “communication level”, there were a lot of joking. But, this years team was different. They needed a coach like they were in former Yugoslavia [more dominant, aggressive]. And they got him in Hunter. He was more strict, they trained more. Obviously, he was more suitable for current roster, but Alvin was more experienced and led games better. They both had pluses and minuses.

He played better under Hunter, but he didn’t gave the reason. They both nurtured fast play – what he likes – although this year was a bit slower then previous. They had a lot of meetings, where they discussed about possible improvements. That is advantage of NBA comparing to Europe, where you get bad looks (minimal) from coach, if you are critical or you make just “suggestions”.

He likes golden State Wariors, because they have young players, also Memphis. But Miami will easily became champion :)

The other half is about Eurobasket and Slovene players.

He was in the contact with McDonnough. He was asked about his opinion about the future of the Suns, what would be good for them. As future Suns coach he would like to see Kevin McHale.

He likes golden State Wariors, because they have young players, also Memphis. But Miami will easily became champion :)

The other half is about Eurobasket and Slovene players.

Just Before The Dawn

2013-05-17T17:35:01Z

There is hope. It’s faint, barely making its presence known amidst the abyss that the city’s original sports staple finds itself in. I would be lying to you if I didn’t share in the skepticism of the so-called promise of progress after the worst season in franchise history since the team’s inception in 1968. I’m already overtly concerned that I’m relying too much on a 33 year old from Boston, a 21 year old prospect from Indiana, and the ever dastardly ping pong balls that inexplicably hold the threads to each franchise‘s fate at one point or another. So many things have to go right in a time where right is rare.

It’s a difficult time for many suns fans. This is not what they’re used to. Being dead last in the Western Conference, pining for ping pong balls, is not what they’re used to. They’re used to heartbreak. To either rooting for a Cinderella and coming up short, or a legitimate contender that suffers a few bad breaks at the worst possible time. They’re not used to rooting for a team that doesn’t even matter come May. Heartbreak is disheartening. Indifference is infuriating. In a city where losing is not expected, losing is not accepted, and heads have been called for, practically on speed dial.

Lance Blanks.

Lon Babby.

Robert Sarver.

"Saver" Sarver should sell, Babby should negotiate a ticket out of town, Blanks is living up to his surname. I’ve heard it all. Hell, I’ve said it all. There is no light brighter than the sun, and there is no burn darker than a scorned suns fan. We’ve been on the wrong side of the proverbial coin flip too many times to not be two-faced: We’ll lift you on our shoulders if you do well, and we’ll lift you over a three-story balcony if you fail. 45 years of See U Next Season will do that to you. The NBA Championship isn’t just a championship to us. It’s a catharsis. A release of all the volatile emotions reverberating throughout US Airways Center that is not only palpable, but suffocating.

You can feel it in the arena, as if there’s an anti-championship banner hanging over us, constantly reminding the franchise what it hasn’t accomplished. You’re a good franchise, but not elite, it keeps telling us, even though we have had a 45 year run that should be considered the class of the league compared to any team not named Celtics or Lakers. In my opinion, we have consistently put out a winning product on the floor better than any team in the history of the NBA. Always adapting to the trends and playing the aggressor, pulling off moves that other teams wouldn’t even begin to consider. All done to reach the pinnacle of this league that few teams, if any, have worked harder to climb.

Nowadays, the zenith is as far a climb this city has ever witnessed. We’ll have to climb just to earn the right to climb. It’s not a position the suns organization has experienced in four decades. The one man that was there then is not here now, although I’m sure he watches from the sidelines with as much vigor as I do. And yet, there’s hope. Even through all the blunders, the trades, the signings, the losses, the embarrassments, the vitriol, the hope that this can be turned around is there. Maybe it’s just naivety on our part; we call for heads because we’re not used to losing, and we just assume that the Phoenix Suns should be better because the Phoenix Suns have always been better. Maybe all the anger and outcry is a result of constantly coming up short time and time again, and now we have a reason to be justified. Maybe we keep calling for heads because we’re still hoping against all hope that the coin that was flipped on 1969 was called "heads" and we just haven’t been awarded yet. Curses are made to be broken after all.

In time, I no longer believed in curses. But over time, I lost all belief in my team. That changed on May 7th, 2013. Lance Blanks is gone, hi, bye, nice to know you. Lon Babby seems to have grown and admitted responsibility for his mistakes. Robert Sarver is not the same owner he was six years ago, and understands now the process we have to go through. And Ryan McDonough is the resulting solution, the white knight in shining armor if you want to go overboard with the hyperbole, the young scouting and analytics stalwart that has arrived to assemble the right pieces in a time where right is rare and find a way to finally reach the summit this franchise has fought for 45 years to reach.

I believe in Ryan McDonough.

I believe in Lon Babby.

I believe in Robert Sarver.

Most importantly of all, I believe in the Phoenix Suns, and know they will rise again. The dawn is coming.

Lance Blanks.

Lon Babby.

Robert Sarver.

I believe in Ryan McDonough.

I believe in Lon Babby.

I believe in Robert Sarver.

Most importantly of all, I believe in the Phoenix Suns, and know they will rise again. The dawn is coming.

CJ McCollum. Is he this year's Damian Lillard?

2013-05-17T14:54:12Z

I LOVE him but I feel that he'll bust if someone tries to force him to play point. He's unselfish, smart (really high BB-IQ), has great handles, has a great feel for the game, understands mismatches and has solid court vision...He's definitely smart and unselfish enough to hit open shooters but I just don't think he has that natural feel for the game (as a PG) that Nash has, he doesn't have elite court vision and I don't think he'll ever be a good enough passer to make highlight dimes like Nash/Rondo/Paul/Dragic and he doesn't have the athleticism to compensate. He can hit open guys and wide open guys but doesn't have more advanced PG skills and I don't think he can make really difficult passes, in this way he reminds me of Sebastian Telfair. He's more a second/third string PG (i.e. Barbosa). He's not the classic idea of a combo guard because he plays below the rim, I'll come back to this idea later. On the PnR he can shoot over the screen or get to the paint but he doesn't seem to know when/where to pass. He had a lot of turnovers but he was also asked to do a lot. He should benefit from better teammates, better spacing and faster pace that we get in the NBA.

One of the knocks on him is that he DEFINITELY doesn't have that electric Westbrook/Rose/Lillard athleticism; he doesn't even have great athleticism. He's a below-the-rim player; his athleticism is more similar to Michael Carter-Williams (not as tall or long though). He's fast but not really fast and he's doesn't have the strength (or length) to play in the paint like Westbrook does. Quicker/faster/stronger/taller/longer players will give him trouble in the NBA. He'll be fine on the perimeter with his ball handling, craftiness and shooting but inside it'll be tough for anything that isn't an open layup.

Now what he DOES do well is that he's smart, unselfish, has a great feel for the game, solid court vision, incredible rebounder for his position (7.9/8.9 REBs in SO/JR years), understands mismatches, high character, hard worker, has okay to good athleticism, has a smooth handle... but the reason he's being talked about top 10 is because this guy can SHOOT! Set, moving, pullup, off the dribble, spot-up, off screens, threes... absolutely a dead-eye shooter (a la JJ Reddick, Ray Allen, Curry-ish). It also seems like he's the only guy in this class that has a really good handle (great crossover and brilliant hesitation) and can create his own shot (ISO). He also knows when he has to take big shots. McCollum is also a beast in transition (20.6% of his total offense). He's not a great finisher but he hustles and outruns the defense, pushes the ball up court, gets easy layups, gets wide-open shots (one of those guys that makes those shots everytime), pulls up when appropriate...he absolutely shreds defenses himself and with his passing when they aren't set. He plays crafty, good at getting fouls, knows when players aren't watching him, good first step (but not great) and like I said earlier he can hit the open man and knows when to feed mismatches (bigs on littles inside or littles on bigs outside). He's not great athletically so quicker, faster players can get around him and tall/strong players can get their shot over him/in his face. He has a lot to learn on defense but I think he will improve in time.

Offensively and defensively he's a fantastic off-ball player. He does the little things: chases rebounds, chases his shots when he thinks they're bad, putbacks, box-out (pretty good for a wing), understands the offense, knows to go to set up plays, knows where everyone else needs be also, knows when to cut to the basket, always ready to receive passes, in the 7SOL Era our offense needed players to be able to "pass or shoot" (understand the offense and where everyone is + anticipate what's going to happen and what you need to do then be able to "pass or shoot" before you even get the ball), McCollum can do that. Defensively he's knows when to get in passing lanes, great anticipation and timing, understands positioning and rotations, takes advantage when players don't have eyes on him, fast hands, steals bad passes and steals/blocks shots from bigs that aren't watching him.

Like I was saying earlier he's not a PG and he's not a typical combo guard because he's an off-guard (not ball-dominate), plays below the rim (finesse) and doesn't have the speed/agility/strength to penetrate every play. He's a tremendous shooter but he's not the all-around scorer that other great combo guards are, especially ones that go top 10. I really feel that he's a unique player and that he needs to be used correctly/put in the right system like Dudley and Tyreke Evans. If you used them wrong they'd be out of the league. I actually think a really good player comparison is CJ to Jared Dudley, think about it. Knockdown shooter, lives off IQ, great rebounder for position, fantastic off-ball defense/offense, finesse (below-the-rim) player, want more athleticism (CJ is much MUCH better than Dudley though, lol), unselfish, good passer, hustle... obviously McCollum is better though, he's being talked about top 10. McCollum gets more steals, is a better rebounder for his position, his smooth handle gets used more as a guard, Dudley is our best shooter but McCollum is a dead-eye, "whatever you do don't leave him open" shooter and McCollum's good athleticism just completely changes the game from Dudley's horrible athleticism. The athleticism takes CJ to another level also Dudley can get 10-15 quietly maybe even 20 but McCollum is one of those guys that will just keep shooting and shooting (and make all of them) if you get him good looks (shooting wise) like Reddick, Allen, Curry, Klay. He's really good not elite like those guys but that's still really impressive for any NBA team. Plus, unlike Dudley he can take over the game in the 4th quarter, create his own shot, and take the final shot (Frye>Dudley's clutch gene).

I just really think his talent would be wasted as a PG. The defense focusing in on him would weaken his already limited PG skills and take advantage of his high turnover rate plus players WILL be able to stop him from shooting if they really try so why expose his best ability when he could just play shooting guard? CJ is a brilliant off-ball player, he can get open if he's not holding the ball the whole time and if you keep feeding him shot after shot he'll make them, so why not do that instead? He'd benefit more from Steve Nash/Trey Burke/Dragic/Michael Carter-Williams than Ray Allen/McLemore/Oladipo/Shabazz.

Coaching in real life: Part 2

2013-05-16T12:36:44Z

You may have read my first post regarding the basketball team I coach over here in New Zealand. If not, you can read it here (http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/4/26/4269182/coaching-in-real-life). For those who have read it, and are eager to hear about what has happened thus far, read on!

In my last post, I wrote about how I wanted to install a 7SOL-inspired offence, and the players responded well to this suggestion. None of them had heard of the run and gun offence that the Suns of the mid-2000s had used with great success. So I sat them down, set up the laptop and the projector, and I showed them old video clips of the D'Antoni Suns.

The players were certainly captivated by what they were watching. One of them, a boy named Hamish who was new to the game of basketball but was quick and athletic, perhaps summed it up best:
"The way they play looks fun"

So we got started. Conditioning would play a big role in the success of the offence we were running, so the first week of our two-week training camp during the autumn school holidays was dedicated to fitness. We ran, and we ran, and we ran. By the second week, I thought that we were fit enough to begin learning the offence. The players picked it up easily. I told each of them that if they were open, they must shoot. I told them that if they make a turnover or miss a shot, don't even think about apologizing to me. I wanted them to be as confident as possible, and not to be worried that I would sub them off if they made a mistake. They were extremely encouraged by this.

Over the next couple of weeks, we continued to refine our offence, our defence and our skills. The team was looking good going in to our first game of the season, where we would be playing our high school's B team (we're the A team).

There were about 30 or 40 people who had come to watch the game in the school gym. Our players seemed nervous, which was to be expected considering it was our first game. I constantly reminded them throughout the warmup drills to relax.

My team won the tipoff, and from there we controlled the entire game. The first quarter ended with us winning, 29 points to 0. I brought a couple of the bench players on, which for some was their first game of competitive basketball. The first half ended with us ahead 44-6. At this point, I decided to go deep in to the bench for the rest of the game, and the final score was 64-14.

There were a number of mistakes throughout the game, but both our offence and defence had looked solid, with the execution lacking in some areas. The offence has looked great though, and in the first quarter where we had looked so impressive, 27 of the 29 points came from fast breaks.

Our next game is on the 21st May, and we are playing local rivals Botany Secondary School. I will endeavour to keep you guys posted as the season rolls along!

Trey Burke and Trading for Youth

2013-05-15T22:01:34Z

We're most likely going to pick #5. The possibility exists that the best player available will be the enormously talented PG from Michigan who almost carried the Wolverines to an NCAA title. We've fixated on Noel and Oladipo for good reason but may be disappointed when draft day rolls around and they are off the board. Should we be disappointed? No, it is very possible to rebuild behind another PG, especially one as adept at running an offense as Burke. Here is one path into the next stage of rebuilding.

1. Dragic + Haddadi for #6 + Jason Thompson
JT has been a reliable double-double player when given minutes. He's young as well, and a cheaper replacement than Gortat, who is likely to demand anywhere from $8-11M/yr depending on how he plays in this upcoming contract year.

Dragic is a PG on the cusp of an All-Star invitation. In terms of style of play, Dragic fits nicely next to Cousins. Dragic is so much bigger than Isaiah Thomas, so the Kings perimeter defense immediately improves after this deal.

2. Tucker + #30 for Ed Davis
Davis is a very promising young PF, learning behind Amir Johnson in Toronto and now Zach Randolph in Memphis. He's fierce on the glass and developing as a shot-blocker. Memphis has PFs Randolph and Darrell Arthur already signed beyond next season. Also, if Tony Allen decides to leave, PJ Tucker is a fine replacement. The Grizzlies defense would not falter all that much.

3. Dudley for Jeremy Lamb
The Thunder acquire a proven shooter and defender, the Suns get a young scorer who will need a few years to show his promise.

4. Gortat + Scola for Courtney Lee, Brandon Bass + future 1st rd pick
As a Suns fans, this would be almost entirely about the 1st rd pick.

Burke/Lamb/Marcus Morris/Davis/JT
Marshall/Lee/Beasley/Markieff Morris/Bass/Frye/Len

The Upside
* All those acquired should be able to hold their trade value over the next few years.

* Jeremy Lamb has done everything in Summer League and D-League to suggest he'll be a reliable scorer at the next level.

* Trey Burke looks like a very, very special player, he has an offensive awareness that rivals a 2-3rd year NBA PG.

* Unless Burke is the next Lillard, we'll be in the 2014 lottery mix a year from today.

* Ed Davis and Jason Thompson will never be featured on offense. But they have solid (if unspectacular) moves in the paint. Both can step out and hit the midrange jumper. Burke got post players involved at Michigan, we would have mobile bigs to make that possible here. More importantly, they'll hit the offensive glass like Gortat-Scola could not. Those 2nd chance opportunities would help Burke, Lamb and Frye on the perimeter.

Suns focus should be for 2014

2013-05-09T22:25:40Z

A great off-season for the Suns is to increase all opportunities toward an active 2014. Attempt to rid as much payroll and get as many top pick opportunities next year as possible. I like some of the talent in this year’s draft but they all seem like role players, not building blocks and that is disappointing considering we're likely receiving a top 5 pick. Next year’s draft and free agency are likely to have lots of top talent. 2014 is when PHX should target its larger transitional focus.

2013 will be more of a fun 'hey, check out our new unis and come watch (insert draft picks) while we target Andrew Wiggins.' And that's what it should be. We should look to find the best draft talent but not aspire to attract the top free agents this off-season. That would detract from our immediate and long term goals to become a better team. This Suns team needs a lot of help, but within a couple years this team at least could have a clear direction, something it certainly doesn't have right now.

Gortat Trade Scenario

2013-05-07T06:08:01Z

I know a lot of people are still at least partially keen on keeping Gortat, but I think this has some potential to work, so read out the proposal.

The rumors have started again that Kendrick Perkins might be amnestied this summer. His numbers have been down each season for the Thunder (to the point where he is almost unarguably the worst center averaging more than 20 minutes a night in the league), and in the playoffs this season his play has basically been atrocious. He's due to make more than $8 million next season, which is seemingly too much even for the tight fisted OKC front office to stomach for someone that isn't producing.

Thabo Sefolosha also seems to be the object of some trade rumors. His play has been solid this season, but he's never been a particularly efficient scorer, and it seems like OKC might want to make more use of Kevin Martin, who's quietly had a super effective season and has expressed interest in returning. With Sefolosha's contract expiring the next year and him likely looking for more money, it seems the team would have to make a call on who they want, and I would think Kevin Martin probably has the edge.

That brings up an interesting reemergence of a possible Gortat trade scenario: Gortat to OKC. The trade would basically break down like this:

Suns acquire: Hasheem Thabeet (C), Perry Jones (SF), 1st Rd Pick from OKC (via Toronto, projected at 12)

OKC acquires: Marcin Gortat, 1st Rd Pick from PHX (via Miami thru LAL), 2014 2nd Rd Pick from BOS

BOS acquires: Thabo Sefolosha

Boston gets the added benefit of getting to low-ball a bid on Perkins in the amnesty auction, and they get the type of player they thought Coutney Lee would be for a 1 year rental at a reasonable contract point. They are there as a facilitator, but they make out fairly well in the whole scenario.

OKC makes out really well, as they get a center that is much more productive than Perkins and likely fits better in their overall plans. They also still get a 1st round pick, and a future second to sweeten the pot.

It could be argued that the Suns get the worst end of this trade. We lose a starting caliber Center and replace him with a backup, gain a developmental prospect in Jones who's potential may not be superbly high, and a late lottery pick. There are benefits here, however.

Thabeet's contract is non-guaranteed, so we could potentially waive him and gain $1.3 in cap space. OR we could choose to keep him: he's a similar player to Haddadi, but younger and more mobile, so depending on the incoming coach's offensive and defensive schemes he could be a more suitable backup. Also, he might benefit from working with Ralph Sampson, who's currently on staff in a player development role. That could actually be an ideal match in terms of a mentor, because Thabeet actually strongly resembles Sampson as a player.

While Jones definitely didn't wow in his very limited time this season (280 total minutes), in most of the games he played more than 10 minutes this season his numbers are in the average range, and his numbers in general improved after the All-Star break. At the same time, he had a really pretty good year in the D-League. He played 32 minutes a game and averaged 14 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal per contest, pretty respectable numbers. I think he definitely has upside, but he's never going anywhere behind Durant because their games are too similar, so he has limited value to OKC.

And then there is the Toronto pick. Its only Top 3 protected, so barring a terrible misfortune we'd get it this season. Projected to still be on the board at the 12th pick are potentially Cody Zeller, Dario Saric and Kelly Olynyk. The Suns could grab Oladipo with the 1st pick and Saric with the second and potentially have the wings of the future. Saric is likely to play overseas next season, which isn't a terrible problem. We could also go Olynyk, though I have more reservations taking him with a lottery pick.

So there you have it. A potential Gortat trade. I'm waiting for the inevitable "Gorat is worth more than this!" claims, to which I say, maybe, but who at the moment needs a middle of the road starting center except a contending team? And how many contending teams are able to absorb Gortat's contract without saddling us with a crappy one?

Altogether, I think this satisfies what I generally consider to be the key criteria when handling when to trade or keep a player. First, we're getting back actual assets. A lottery pick and recent first round pick are nothing to sneeze at. In terms of value, its actually pretty high. Second, it ensures that we get something for Gortat, as he is coming up on the end of his contract and it does not seem likely we retain him, or that he wants to be here, for that matter.

Since we're Rebuilding

2013-05-06T20:17:36Z

Do not go out and get Bynum, Tyreke or Gordon. Only guy I can see maybe coming here is Gordon but I can't see paying him all that money for a half season of play.

A good player to go out and get is Monta Ellis. Guy is a baller. It's exactly what the suns are missing. He doesn't want to be a Buck. Who does? Him an Goran is a great way to start off rebuilding. Still draft Oladipo as SG since its his turn to be in the 4 spot for the suns. Sure it will change a few more times.

Next, this is a stretch but go and get Greg Oden. Guy is itching to come back. Yes he has a injured past, but he would be dirt cheap and we all know the Suns have the best medical staff in all of the NBA. Look at who we've worked on and it shows. That is a way better risk then the Beasley project.

Get rid of Beasley and I don't care how.. I hate seeing him in a Suns Jeresy more less on our new court...

Trade Gortat. I'm sorry but I try to listen to the people that say he is still our center of the future. How about no, JO out played him 85% of the time. I'm sure we can do better. Go get a border line all star and or cash with him.

Lastly, peace out Shannon Brown. Guy is a beast only a few games out if the year. Il pass on that. Keep JD, Wes and Tucker for next year. They are good role players for a young rebuilding team and great trade pieces. And we don't need both Morris brothers. At this point right now I don't really care which one we keep...

I'm sure there is more loose ends but that's where I would start as a new GM.

Do not go out and get Bynum, Tyreke or Gordon. Only guy I can see maybe coming here is Gordon but I can't see paying him all that money for a half season of play.

Get rid of Beasley and I don't care how.. I hate seeing him in a Suns Jeresy more less on our new court...

I'm sure there is more loose ends but that's where I would start as a new GM.

Offer the keys to CP3?

2013-05-05T05:24:55Z

Okay, so this is something I started thinking about today, that is completely unrealistic and never going to happen, but nonetheless, thought it was interesting to think about. There are rumors that Chris Paul is not 100% set on returning to the Clippers next year after the way they ended this season. CP3 would obviously be a huge get for the Suns, as he's probably better than everyone from this year's roster combined, even when he's playing hurt. However, what reason would Paul have for wanting to sign with the Suns? None that I could think of. Unless.... Bear with me here...

What if the Suns offered Paul a huge contract to play in Phoenix, as well as the open head coaching position? I can't remember when the last time a team had a player-coach, I know Russell was for a bit, not sure if there's been anyone since? Maybe this challenge would be intriguing to him? Paul would have the opportunity to manage the team the way he wanted, which may be appealing after playing under Vinny Del Negro. The training staff here could keep him healthy as well as anyone else could. Pairing him with Dragic could be a pretty lethal backcourt, and like Nash, Paul could probably get a lot more productivity out of Gortat. Plus we have a top 7 draft pick, and with Paul's reputation as a player and leader, I would imagine there would be several solid role players willing to come sign here to play under him, instead of a traditional head coach. If nothing else, it would get the Suns back in the media spotlight.

Again, I understand this is not something that would even begin to become a real possibility, but I've been kind of curious if the player-coach arrangement could ever work, and if I had to pick the perfect guy for it, it would probably be Chris Paul (star player, commands respect from his peers, smart guy, etc.). I don't know how successful it would be, but I would definitely tune in to see. And if you're the Suns, you need to do something to get people interested again, don't you?

Phoenix Suns 2013 Offseason Guide

2013-05-03T23:01:06Z

via i2.cdn.turner.com

Hello, BSOTS...welcome to my first fanpost. This is a product of my insatiable desire to keep reading/discussing/producing Suns-related content, as well as my determination to further procrastinate studying for my finals.

Senioritis + Suns fanhood = irresponsible life decisions.

This is basically a guide/preview for the Suns' offseason, with analysis and discussion of everything the team needs to do (and what I hope they will do) along with links to relevant content and resources. Additionally, I hope this post fuels discussion in the comments below so everyone can share what they hope the Suns will do this summer as they look to build around Kendall Marshall (shoutout to Penny Hardaway). Let's begin...

General Manager

via valleyofthesuns.com

The first (and most important) thing the Suns hope to address is the GM opening left by the departure of the dearly-beloved Lance Blanks. After three years of suffering Blanks' thumbtack-like personality, Suns fans hope that Babby will hire someone who can restore the team to relevancy. As of right now, there appear to be a few solid candidates under consideration for the job:

Jeff Weltman - Milwaukee Bucks Assistant GM

Dave King already wrote a great piece about Jeff Weltman. Solid experience, analytical guy, very highly-regarded by peers and is said to be one of the best Asst. GMs in the league. He drafted Larry Sanders, the best interior defender in the NBA (on the subject of analytics - that report also suggests that Luis Scola is one of the two worst interior defenders in the league). Weltman is also responsible for using an 8th overall pick to draft Joe Alexander who um, last I heard, put up some pretty good numbers in the D-League.

Weltman interviewed for the job back in 2010 and iscurrently considered to be the frontrunner in the race.

Scott Layden - San Antonio Spurs Assistant GM

Again, Dave King covered him pretty well in this post. Here's what we know:

Part of the Jazz's front office from 1981-1999. Considered to be responsible for drafting John Stockton AND Karl Malone in back-to-back drafts (with the 16th and 13th overall picks, respectively).
Knicks GM from 1999-2003. New York made the playoffs twice in his first two years before they started becoming one of the worst teams in the NBA. Layden was known for giving aging players long-term, high-money contracts. He gave a starting-to-get-washed-up Allan Houston a 6 year, $100 million guaranteed deal.
After he got fired by the Knicks in 2003, he joined the Spurs FO, while New York made Isiah Thomas its new GM and became the worst team in the NBA.
Here's a very informative video by Scott Layden on how to play basketball to stay fit. Please read the one comment on the video for some high-level insight and opinion on Layden (probably either from a Knicks fan or a relative of someone Layden must have murdered).

Ryan McDonough - Boston Celtics Assistant GM

A "Next-Generation" GM

33 years old
Highly analytics-based guy. Considers it a responsibility to always keep tabs on every player with "NBA-level" talent.
Responsible for drafting Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley.

Charles Barkley - Former Phoenix Sun, TNT NBA Analyst, Professional Golfer

Here is Barkley's resume

MY PICK: Ryan McDonough

Coach

via www.arizonasports.com

The next issue the Suns have to address is the hiring of a new coach. While Lindsey Hunter unfortunately still remains a candidate (he's also a possibility for the Detroit Pistons' head coaching gig), the team will definitely at least consider other names. There haven't been as many names appearing in rumors for the Suns' coaching spot as the GM opening but that's due to the fact that any decision regarding the future Head Coach will probably be made by the future GM. Here are some possible candidates:

Jeff Hornacek - assistant coach for the Utah Jazz, former Suns player/sharpshooter - His name has been floating around for a number of vacant coaching positions around the league, including the Suns'.
Kelvin Sampson - assistant coach for the Houston Rockets - Being targeted by many teams, he'll probably end up somewhere else (after the Rockets' season ends, which hopefully isn't tonight).
Stan Van Gundy - former Orlando Magic Head Coach/former porn star - If he's not a possibility, he should be. I'm not sure he'd want to coach the Suns but we should look into him regardless. At the least, he would provide some entertainment we Suns fans could sure use on the court.
Jerry Sloan - former Utah Jazz Hall of Fame Head Coach - This might be a reach, but it also might not. Especially if Babby decided to go with former Utah Jazz FO member Scott Layden.
Mike Budenholzer - long-time assistant coach for the San Antonio Spurs - I'm not sure he would want to leave the Spurs to spearhead a rebuilding project in Phoenix but every assistant coach wants to be Head Coach at some point, right? Can't hurt to ask. And with our FO's fascination with raiding the Spurs' personnel, I wouldn't be surprised if we tried.
Phil Jackson - LOL.

MY PICK: Anyone but Lindsey Hunter. Sorry Lindsey.

The Draft

via thehoopdoctors.com

Perhaps the first big step in building for the future is the 2013 NBA draft. Us fans really need some excitement on the court next year - something else to watch and think about other than whether Michael Beasley will miss more shots or eat more skittles every night.

The Suns will find out where they will be drafting during the lottery on May 21 (mark your calendars!), but as of today they stand 4th in the lottery rankings, with an 11.9% chance of winning the lottery. We also have the 30th pick in the draft, courtesy of the Miami Heat (as well as the LA Lakers' awe-inspiring and referee-aided late-season push to get swept in the first round of the playoffs). Check our some recent mock drafts to see who people have us drafting (with the 5th overall pick):

Play the lottery on ESPN (I got the Suns picking Victor Oladipo at #5)
Hoopsworld Consensus mock draft has us taking Oladipo or Anthony Bennnett.
Sportingnews has us landing Ben McLemore.
CBS Sports has Trey Burke going at #4, where we're currently picking.

Now for some actual analysis on the players we could be picking (in order of my preference):

Nerlens Noel - C, Kentucky - Big, agile Center (could possibly be a PF in the NBA). He's a defensive beast and possible the only gamechanger in this entire draft class. He tore his ACL in February and won't be able to play for a good part of next season. He has elite athleticism and at 6'10" he has the height to play either big man position. However, he definitely needs to bulk up as he only weighs around 220-230 pounds. I don't think that'll be an issue after a couple years in the pros because he seems to have a decent frame to build some more muscle. He actually reminds me a lot of Dwight Howard when he first entered the league. Check out this scouting video from DraftExpress.
Victor Oladipo - SG, Indiana - Oladipo has seen a huge boost up the draft board after a stellar junior year. A brilliant om-ball defender, he's been expanding his offensive skillset and has recently shown that he's working to develop even more before the draft. He's not a great shooter, but he's shown and improved consistency in shooting the ball. He's a great athlete and uses his athleticism to slash to the rim, as well rebound the ball at a great rate for his size (6'4"). He's an average ball-handler but he vowed to work on that before the draft and with his work ethic, I really believe he'll be a very good player in the pros. Here's his DraftExpress scouting video.
Otto Porter - SF, Georgetown - Porter is a great all-around small forward. He can slash, he can pass, he can defend, he can rebound, he has good size (6'8") and he can shoot (something he's improved this last season). The problem is, I'm not sure if he's great at any of those things (yet). Regardless, I think he'd be a solid pick if we're picking 4th or 5th in the draft. ESPN scouting video.
Ben McLemore - SG, Kansas - McLemore had a great freshman year leading the #1 ranked Kansas team and has been compared to Ray Allen. He's an amazing shooter (he has perfect form) and has elite athleticism. However, he struggles to get his own shot off due to a shaky handle and had a habit of disappearing during big moments during his one year in college. He's also average at best at defense. His success in the NBA will depend on how he develops his dribble and learns to attack the rim. DraftExpress Video
Anthony Benett - PF, UNLV - Bennett is a tweener expected to go high in this year's draft mainly due to his polished offensive game and his length. Although he's only 6'7", he has an insane wingspan and is a great rebounder for his size. He can also shoot the ball pretty well and is a good athlete. I'm just not sure he would be a great pick, especially since the Suns can't afford to gamble on another tweener who may or may not pan out. That being said, I would be happy with this pick only if the above 4 players are already gone by the time we pick.

MY PICK - I'm on the Victor Oladipo bandwagon (given that we don't land the #1 pick and draft Noel).

This post is already too long so I won't get started with free agency here. Please comment to share what you would like to see happen in all of these offseason stages. Thanks for reading (or not reading).

via i2.cdn.turner.com

Senioritis + Suns fanhood = irresponsible life decisions.

General Manager

via valleyofthesuns.com

Jeff Weltman - Milwaukee Bucks Assistant GM

Weltman interviewed for the job back in 2010 and iscurrently considered to be the frontrunner in the race.

Scott Layden - San Antonio Spurs Assistant GM

Again, Dave King covered him pretty well in this post. Here's what we know:

Part of the Jazz's front office from 1981-1999. Considered to be responsible for drafting John Stockton AND Karl Malone in back-to-back drafts (with the 16th and 13th overall picks, respectively).
Knicks GM from 1999-2003. New York made the playoffs twice in his first two years before they started becoming one of the worst teams in the NBA. Layden was known for giving aging players long-term, high-money contracts. He gave a starting-to-get-washed-up Allan Houston a 6 year, $100 million guaranteed deal.
After he got fired by the Knicks in 2003, he joined the Spurs FO, while New York made Isiah Thomas its new GM and became the worst team in the NBA.
Here's a very informative video by Scott Layden on how to play basketball to stay fit. Please read the one comment on the video for some high-level insight and opinion on Layden (probably either from a Knicks fan or a relative of someone Layden must have murdered).

Ryan McDonough - Boston Celtics Assistant GM

A "Next-Generation" GM

33 years old
Highly analytics-based guy. Considers it a responsibility to always keep tabs on every player with "NBA-level" talent.
Responsible for drafting Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley.

Charles Barkley - Former Phoenix Sun, TNT NBA Analyst, Professional Golfer

Here is Barkley's resume

MY PICK: Ryan McDonough

Coach

via www.arizonasports.com

Jeff Hornacek - assistant coach for the Utah Jazz, former Suns player/sharpshooter - His name has been floating around for a number of vacant coaching positions around the league, including the Suns'.
Kelvin Sampson - assistant coach for the Houston Rockets - Being targeted by many teams, he'll probably end up somewhere else (after the Rockets' season ends, which hopefully isn't tonight).
Stan Van Gundy - former Orlando Magic Head Coach/former porn star - If he's not a possibility, he should be. I'm not sure he'd want to coach the Suns but we should look into him regardless. At the least, he would provide some entertainment we Suns fans could sure use on the court.
Jerry Sloan - former Utah Jazz Hall of Fame Head Coach - This might be a reach, but it also might not. Especially if Babby decided to go with former Utah Jazz FO member Scott Layden.
Mike Budenholzer - long-time assistant coach for the San Antonio Spurs - I'm not sure he would want to leave the Spurs to spearhead a rebuilding project in Phoenix but every assistant coach wants to be Head Coach at some point, right? Can't hurt to ask. And with our FO's fascination with raiding the Spurs' personnel, I wouldn't be surprised if we tried.
Phil Jackson - LOL.

MY PICK: Anyone but Lindsey Hunter. Sorry Lindsey.

The Draft

via thehoopdoctors.com

Play the lottery on ESPN (I got the Suns picking Victor Oladipo at #5)
Hoopsworld Consensus mock draft has us taking Oladipo or Anthony Bennnett.
Sportingnews has us landing Ben McLemore.
CBS Sports has Trey Burke going at #4, where we're currently picking.

Now for some actual analysis on the players we could be picking (in order of my preference):

Nerlens Noel - C, Kentucky - Big, agile Center (could possibly be a PF in the NBA). He's a defensive beast and possible the only gamechanger in this entire draft class. He tore his ACL in February and won't be able to play for a good part of next season. He has elite athleticism and at 6'10" he has the height to play either big man position. However, he definitely needs to bulk up as he only weighs around 220-230 pounds. I don't think that'll be an issue after a couple years in the pros because he seems to have a decent frame to build some more muscle. He actually reminds me a lot of Dwight Howard when he first entered the league. Check out this scouting video from DraftExpress.
Victor Oladipo - SG, Indiana - Oladipo has seen a huge boost up the draft board after a stellar junior year. A brilliant om-ball defender, he's been expanding his offensive skillset and has recently shown that he's working to develop even more before the draft. He's not a great shooter, but he's shown and improved consistency in shooting the ball. He's a great athlete and uses his athleticism to slash to the rim, as well rebound the ball at a great rate for his size (6'4"). He's an average ball-handler but he vowed to work on that before the draft and with his work ethic, I really believe he'll be a very good player in the pros. Here's his DraftExpress scouting video.
Otto Porter - SF, Georgetown - Porter is a great all-around small forward. He can slash, he can pass, he can defend, he can rebound, he has good size (6'8") and he can shoot (something he's improved this last season). The problem is, I'm not sure if he's great at any of those things (yet). Regardless, I think he'd be a solid pick if we're picking 4th or 5th in the draft. ESPN scouting video.
Ben McLemore - SG, Kansas - McLemore had a great freshman year leading the #1 ranked Kansas team and has been compared to Ray Allen. He's an amazing shooter (he has perfect form) and has elite athleticism. However, he struggles to get his own shot off due to a shaky handle and had a habit of disappearing during big moments during his one year in college. He's also average at best at defense. His success in the NBA will depend on how he develops his dribble and learns to attack the rim. DraftExpress Video
Anthony Benett - PF, UNLV - Bennett is a tweener expected to go high in this year's draft mainly due to his polished offensive game and his length. Although he's only 6'7", he has an insane wingspan and is a great rebounder for his size. He can also shoot the ball pretty well and is a good athlete. I'm just not sure he would be a great pick, especially since the Suns can't afford to gamble on another tweener who may or may not pan out. That being said, I would be happy with this pick only if the above 4 players are already gone by the time we pick.

MY PICK - I'm on the Victor Oladipo bandwagon (given that we don't land the #1 pick and draft Noel).

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The Suns Season in A Nutshell: Offensive Collapse

2013-05-03T07:43:24Z

A lot has been made of what went wrong this season, and if one table can tell a story, it is this one (all stats taken from Basketball Reference):

Season	2011-12	2012-13
Average	104.6	105.9
oRtg	106.2	101.2
dRtg	106.5	108.1
oRtg % league avg	101.53%	95.56%
dRtg % league avg	101.82%	102.08%
oRtg Rank	9	29
dRtg Rank	24	23

If we seasonally adjust 2012-13 to the same league average as 2011-12, where the drop occurred is even more obvious:

Season	2011-12	Seasonally Adjusted 2012-13
Average	104.6	104.6
oRtg	106.2	100.0
dRtg	106.5	106.8

The Suns defence, despite being really bad lets not sugar coat this, was basically as bad as in 2012-13 as in 2011-12 - one spot better in rankings, a few percentage points of league average worse, slightly less standard deviations form the mean, roughly the same seasonally adjusted to 2011-12, so basically no score, draw.

The offence, however, was a trainwreck. After years of watching Nash run the PnR with clockwork precision, hitting the roll man for dunks and layups, and watching the Suns hit three pointers at league leading rates, this season was a complete offensive disaster.

We dropped from 9th in the league, and 101.53% of the league average, to 29th and 95.56% of the average. Seasonally adjusted, we lost 6 points per 100 possessions, which is two standard deviations of change. Basically, we had an historically bad drop.

The specific reasons for that are up for debate, but losing Nash, adding Beasley, the drop off in overall FG (.458 to .443) and 3FG% (.343 to .330) combined with less 3FGA per game (19.62 per game vs 17.74) all played a part.

Moving into the off season, whereas the offence was once a distinct strength, the Suns now have massive problems on both sides of the ball, and need huge improvement both offensively and defensively (kill me, kill me now).

A lot has been made of what went wrong this season, and if one table can tell a story, it is this one (all stats taken from Basketball Reference):

Season	2011-12	2012-13
Average	104.6	105.9
oRtg	106.2	101.2
dRtg	106.5	108.1
oRtg % league avg	101.53%	95.56%
dRtg % league avg	101.82%	102.08%
oRtg Rank	9	29
dRtg Rank	24	23

If we seasonally adjust 2012-13 to the same league average as 2011-12, where the drop occurred is even more obvious:

Season	2011-12	Seasonally Adjusted 2012-13
Average	104.6	104.6
oRtg	106.2	100.0
dRtg	106.5	106.8