The Scotty Bowman Theory
Lace'em Up
Phoenix Suns
Last Years Record: 61-21
Key Losses: Kurt Thomas
Key Additions: Grant Hill
1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?
The best move was dumping James Jones in exchange for salary cap room and Grant Hill. Even if the Suns didn't pick up a little cap space, they replaced Junior with Grant Hill. Junior had pretty much reached his potential while here. The guy actually shot better with a hand in his face. He'll flourish on a team that can't get him those wide-open looks. And now that he'll be guarded more closely, he can kick out his leg for those 4-point shots. Look for a break-out year from Junior.
I am concerned about Hill's health. Every time I start to get excited, I stop myself. I cannot let myself get too excited and happy or he'll snap something else. IF (big, huge enormous "if") he stays healthy, the Suns' offense just made the second-best upgrade that was on the table this summer ...
The biggest potential upgrade on the table involved dealing away Marion. Although I really wanted to see AK-47 in a Suns uniform because I have an undying respect for a man who's not afraid to show his emotions (can you imagine what would happen if his dog died - or, heaven forbid, something important? crying over a freakin' basketball game?), deep down I'm very happy that Shawn's still on the team. He was the one guy who kept me interested in the Suns during the Dark Years before Nash's return.
I'm still conflicted on dealing away KT. On the one hand, the team is weaker for not having him. I don't care what anyone says about Brown, Skinner or Marks. None of them hit the mid-range jumper the way he did. Assuming a push on defense (Marks, yeah, right), that jumper was important. We were told that the Suns would not make any off-season moves that would make the team weaker and we were lied to. On the other hand, KT could have, but did not, opt-out in exchange for a smaller contract with the Suns. Would management have given him $3-$5M per year? I don't know, but I also don't know if a couple more million should make a different to KT. Did anyone ever try?
And for all of the screams about $arver's penny-pinching ways, I'm convinced he would have paid for KG if Marion had not nixed the deal. That would've been an improvement on both ends of the floor. Geez, Hill probably would've still joined the squad. Scary.
My heart, though, is glad that I'll get to watch the Matrix for at least another two years.
2. What are the team's biggest strengths?
I'm not even going to waste space on this. If you're enough of a basketball geek to be reading articles like this at this point in the year, you know who the Suns are. If you're going to be watching them, I suggest you spend your time shopping for the biggest HDTV you can find for two reasons:
1. Basketball in HD is amazing and all of the Suns games are in HD this year. The dunks are harder, the passes crisper and the moves are faster.
2. You need a big TV to take in all of the movement. The larger viewing area lets you take in more of the picture. It's easier to catch the movement and speed of their game.
3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?
Defense? No. Chemistry? Maybe. Rebounding? Yes.
With two of the best individual defenders in the game, you'd think the Suns would get more love on defense. What I'd like to see someone look at is a ratio of opponents' points to opponents' possessions. If you're San Antonio and take 20 seconds to get a shot off, the other team is going to get less shots. It works for them, but absolute score is not the best indicator. Point differential is somewhat important, too, but I'd be willing to guess that the opponent's efficiency is important, too.
Everyone - well, almost everyone, not me (yeah) - hates their boss. Marion will have a great year. He'll be looking to prove himself and he'll be playing with another passer on the floor. With Hill creating and passing the lane will be wide open for more of Marion's slashing. He's going to be very happy. If anything, offense might even come easier for him, allowing him to play harder (if that's possible) on defense. Amare says that right things in public and Hill and Nash are going to keep the team glued together. The Suns should be fine.
I'd kind of like to see Bell and Hill getting to the defensive glass so that Marion can take off down the court. If they did that, though, Marion would probably be at the other end, standing still, while Nash looks for him. As discussed below, Stoudemire needs to get more boards. I would also like to see some more intensity on the offensive glass, but I'm willing to accept incremental improvement and the defensive glass is more important. The other teams are going to miss a lot of shot (at least half) and the Suns cannot let them get a second chance. When the Suns clean up the defensive glass they're nearly impossible to beat.
The one that didn't make my intro list: Amare's defense. He needs to play fundamentally solid defense and not highlight-reel defense. He tries to block every single shot while playing out of position. When he realizes that just makes him foul-prone, he just stops playing defense altogether. If he can just play sound defense, he'll be able to take up a lot of room, alter a lot of shots, and be in position to get a lot of rebounds. There is no reason he should've been averaging less than 10 rebounds per game.
4. What are the goals for this team?
To create reliable bench players. I'm not sure how this is done, but if someone is needed for ten minutes in a playoff game, the Suns need to get someone in there that can contribute - at least a little. This means developing them during the season. I call it the "Scotty Bowman Theory." One year in the mid-nineties, he led the Detroit Red Wings to something like 60+ wins (that's very good for hockey, probably equivalent to 70 in basketball) but got bounced out of the first round. The next year, he used the regular season as the playoff-preseason. The Red Wings got a fourth or fifth seed, but everyone on the team meshed and knew what to do. Everybody could play with one another. That year, they won the Stanley Cup. Popovich seems to get enough quality minutes out of enough guys to help prop up his Big 3. I don't know how it's done, but I'd like to see Coach D do something like that.
5. Did the Suns fire their marketing department?
I'm a little upset the Suns blew their wad on "Eyes on the Prize." That was presumptuous and looked how it panned out. Maybe something lame like "Planet Orange" is just the humble pie that the basketball gods will smile upon.
0 recs |
8 comments
Comments
Regarding the Stats
Per game, the defense breakdown in points scored per time of possession looks like this:
Time %of Attempts PPG
0-10 sec 35% 32.9
11-15sec 26% 21.7
16-20 24% 19.7
21+ 15% 10.8
I'd like to break these down by wins and losses, if I can get my hands on the stats. It's pretty obvious that we tease teams into playing run and gun with us, which of course, we kill them at.
Interestingly enough, did you know that we actually held our opponents to more jumpers than San Antonio did? Not by much, but still.
We do have two primary one on one defenders, but let's be honest, we also have two players that care almost nothing for defense, Amare and Nash. I would agree rebounding is a huge key point, but I tend to rope that in with defense. It's the ability of a defense to end a possession. I wish we got more second chance opportunities, too, but our shooting percentage is so high, I can't complain much.
Anyway, nice preview!
by Ridiculous Matt on Oct 9, 2007 1:46 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
by TexSUN on Oct 9, 2007 8:50 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay fair enough
But the fact is, they are regarded by most analysts as pretty bad on D. Nash I think just doesn't concentrate on it as much. We sure as hell needed it on Parker in the S.A. series. But I'm sure it's not a question of attitude, as both those guys will do anything to win. My bad.
by Ridiculous Matt on Oct 9, 2007 1:20 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rebounding
But eventually, the opp FG% and off rebs would become problems. And coach would say we just need more effort. Sometimes (Boris) that seemed valid, but most often it looked like if they just calmed themselves a bit and concentrated on positioning, that'd take care of it. Fresher playoff legs would be good too.
Nash took a lot of charges, and was okay during the season. Against SA, he was nearly useless in helping against TD, Parker or Ginobili, and got taken advantage of repeatedly. That Bowen had such big games 5 and 6 means the coaches didn't adjust. If he could've limited his help to anticipation/flopping and stayed with Bowen in general, I think the suspensions would've been rendered moot. But the coaches would probably say they'd rather have Bowen or whoever shoot unguarded than one of the big 3 shoot a guarded shot.
To me, Amare is not a consistent player yet. And this year maybe his youth is behind him and he can show veteran consistancy. He looked like the same lost Amare during team USA, though. Maybe the biggest reason KT and Iavaroni will be missed?
If I never hear D'Antoni grin and crack wise about his 7 starters getting the minutes, it will be too soon. He's no longer amusing and the reason for no championships. JSun, the way it's done is simple. The coach disciplines himself. He already has a substitution pattern. Now expand it to include 10 players! D'Antoni's committed to a short rotation and tired veteran legs during the postseason, crazy with a running team!
by marionette on Oct 9, 2007 2:25 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs
Not so Simple
For all the criticism Burke got for his comments, he had a point: How the hell do you expect me to do something worthwhile in Game 5 when I cannot even practice with the starters?
I put absolutely no stock in the veterans' legs being tired at the end of the season/beginning of the playoffs. In the last 3 injury-prone (and suspension-prone) playoff runs, the Suns in uniform have shown super-human stamina. The problem is that there was no one -- absolutely no one -- ready to play a good 15 minutes in the series so the starters could take a rest and not worry about losing the lead.
The deficiency is not in conditioning but in having absolutely no one ready to contribute should a stop-gap be needed.
by JSun on Oct 9, 2007 2:33 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's both
I don't think relying on the "super-human" stamina. That's not a good idea. You're asking for even more injuries. They need to have a bench so those players can get the rest and produce.
I agree that the players (particularly Banks) need to step up and produce. But I also think an obsession with how good your front 7 is, and ignoring the development of your bench subsequently, is not a good idea.
But then again, D'Antoni knows about a million times more about basketball than I do, so maybe we should just see how we go.
by Ridiculous Matt on Oct 9, 2007 3:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's Not a Good Idea
Imagine if Pat Burke had actually been able to give Thomas 10 or so minutes of rest in Game 5. Thomas wouldn't have been dragging his rear the last 5 minutes of the game. If he had just a little more energy, the Suns could've relied on him for a little more offense, a little more rebounding and a little more defense.
That's all they needed! It's not Kurt's fault he played like a madman for 40 minutes and had nothing left. It's the fault of the coaching staff that Burke couldn't give a serviceable ten minutes.
What if Marcus Clanks had been able to give a mediocre 10 minutes? Nash would've been good for the last part of the game and wouldn't have been so dead tired for Game 6.
Marion carried the team in the first half and had nothing left. If the Matrix is tired, you know he's working his butt off.
The hard part is getting a GOOD ten minutes out of someone.
by JSun on Oct 9, 2007 4:32 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs
My 2 cents
I am wondering whether some of this might be what D'Antoni means when he talks about "enjoying the journey". In 2005-06, it seemed like he was willing to take risks and be really creative (e.g., starting Boris Diaw at center, etc), whereas last year, he seemed extremely reluctant to stretch the boundaries at all. About the most creative he got last year was plugging Pike in unexpectedly for one of those games Shawn Marion missed during "the slump". Mostly, he just stuck with the same old, same old. I'm thinking this year we might get to see more of his creative side. Obviously in 2005-06 it came from necessity, but maybe now that the "ultra-intense" approach didn't work, he'll go back to the unexpected a little.
by TexSUN on Oct 9, 2007 4:49 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs




















