Nowitzki for MVP?

by Dan on Mar 5, 2007 1:31 PM MST in Suns News Comment 14 comments

We're coming down to the stretch run and MVP talk is heating up. But really the race only comes down to two players as John Gambadoro puts in his article today. No one else but Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash can even claim to have a chance at winning the MVP despite some people even saying Amare Stoudemire has a chance to win. And if I had to vote right now for the MVP, it would be Dirk. Your read that right. I would vote for Dirk. Why?

Well, the main reason is that the Mavericks have a better regular season record and have been phenomenal with Dirk. Sure, the Suns have a great record. But they are currently 4.5 games behind the Mavs and it doesn't look like they'll be able to catch up with the way Dallas is playing right now.

And the regular season record from now on out really won't mean anything, as Gambo points out. This is when the teams will start resting their players. And if the Mavericks lose a few games at the end of the year because of that, it shouldn't affect the way people vote for the MVP.

Bottom line is this: If the Suns had the best record in the league and were playing like the Mavericks are playing right now, I would be banging the drum for Nash. And I would be awfully ticked if he didn't get it. So I turn it around and look at objectively and see that Dirk should win it.

Maybe you can convince me otherwise, but I doubt it. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

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Dirk will win in a landslide (and should)

This one shouldn't even be up for debate in my mind. I'll preface by saying Nash has done more to deserve MVP this year than he ever has, and there's little question he's more important to his team than any player in the league. It shouldn't have even been a question that he deserved it the past two years, and anyone who says otherwise (I'm talking to you, Shaq!) should be ashamed.

However...

How can you NOT give the MVP to Dirk this year? The Mavs are simply awesome. They win virtually every close game they are in, and Dirk is almost always the reason why, either directly (usually) or indirectly. I don't care if the Suns can't win without Nash. In fact, part of being "valuable" is actually playing the games! Dirk has had injuries too, but he played through them any time his absence might have meant losing the game. He shouldn't be punished just because he plays through pain. I'm not saying Nash should have played through his injury, or that it's his fault he got injured in the first place. But Dirk shouldn't get penalized just because the Mavericks haven't proven they can't win without him.

Yes, it would have been awesome for Nash to have gotten three in a row. And in any other year, I'd be pissed if he didn't get it. But this year, someone else deserves it more, and my own sense of "what's right" won't allow me to say otherwise. Besides, I really don't want the Suns meeting a Dallas team in the playoffs motivated even more than they already are by getting "dissed" on the regular season awards. I say give Dirk MVP, give Avery COY, and get on with trying to be the best team you can be in the playoffs.

by TexSUN on Mar 5, 2007 3:32 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Regarding Close Games

I didn't believe you so I looked it up. Mavs are 12-2 in games decided by 5 points or less. Suns are 9-7. Then I figured the Suns would fare better if I looked at games decided by 10 or more. The Suns are 23-2. The Mavs are 25-5. So on the one hand, the Suns get blown out a lot less than the Mavs do (those two losses were when Steve was out). But the Mavs also have 5 more games that were blow outs one way or the other. So that makes this stat a wash, in my mind.

So I guess the key for the Suns is to score as many points as possible because if it gets to be a close game, the Mavs are definitely better at winning those.

by Dan on Mar 5, 2007 4:07 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

I looked it up too, although I missed one of the Mavericks' losses. I thought they only lost the one 2-point game against LA. Either way, I don't like the Suns chances against them in the playoffs because most playoff games are decided by 5 points or less. The one thing that close-game stat doesn't take into account, though, is that the Suns seem to turn a lot of close games into "mini-blowouts" at the last minute. So the Suns' "close game" record might really be better than it seems.

by TexSUN on Mar 5, 2007 4:29 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Close games

Last year the Suns lost most close games until they got to the playoffs. Then they started winning close games. This year they are winning those, sometimes turning them into a route in the end. However, if we just considered how many close games (decided by 3 points or less) the Suns have won this year, that number is impressive. I have not looked all the stats, but I remember them pulling off wins against GSW, Chicago (@Chicago), Toronto, Portland (@Portland), NJ (2OT), Boston, Denver. They also lost some that they should have won. The early losses to SA, Dallas and UT (also 2 close losses to UT) cost them dearly. So those are offset.

The SA at Phx game was actually very close. The Suns break open a close game at some point.

Againt Washington (@Phx) they were robbed IMO (the refs seem to just LOVE Gilbert Arenas- e.g. how GSW was robbed last night- that's OT though)

by Vash01 on Mar 5, 2007 11:27 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Dirk will but should he?

I think Dirk will win the MVP this year because of the Mavs' awesome record, but I don't believe he is the reason they have that record. Sure, he was ticked off about losing the trophy last year, and highly motivated from the start of this year. The reason the Mavs are winning is Avery has collected all the missing pieces and he has been awesome as a coach (though I hate his squeaky voice and his personality). If Dirk does not play, it makes no difference to the Mavs. If Nash does not play, the Suns are not the same team. IMO Nash is the rightful MVP this year again, but he will not win that trophy. However, if Dirk does not win the MVP in the regular season, he will be even more driven in the playoffs, and that is scary. It may be better to let him enjoy the regular season MVP trophy and take his eyes OFF the prize, while Steve gets to hold up the NBA championship trophy and the NBA finals MVP trophy.

Right now the Mavs look unbeatable, but in the playoffs anything can happen. I think SA, Utah and the Suns (though I have less faith in them than the other two) have the ability to beat them in a 7-game series when both teams are equally tired. The Mavs have enjoyed a softer schedule than anyone else. Their record is impressive regardless (and the Suns stumbled in Feb. and lost their edge; the Mavs did not). Still, I believe it's because of Avery's approach and not because of Dirk.

by Vash01 on Mar 5, 2007 9:59 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Nash and "the money"

Those who think Nash should regret leaving Dallas for "the money", are forgetting where the Mavericks were at the end of 2003-04. They were just coming off of a disappointing season that ended in an unceremonious 5-game dismissal in the first round, by a team they were supposed to be fairly evenly matched with. They had been to the Western Conference finals in 2002-03 (and were maybe one Dirk injury away from making it to the finals), but that hadn't prevented the owner from shaking things up and turning over half the team. The 2003-04 Mavericks were a group of selfish misfits (for example, Antoine Walker was starting at center because he refused to come off the bench--and STILL whined about not getting enough minutes, all while shooting a terrible percentage). The Mavericks seemed like generally a miserable bunch overall, and there was little doubt there was going to be another big shakeup, and another year of having to get re-acquainted with new teammates. Also, this was the summer Shaq was being traded, and the local media was speculating that Nash would be re-signed then promptly dealt to the Lakers as part of a package to get Shaq. There was no reason at all to think the Mavericks were anywhere close to winning a championship, and even if the did manage to take a step that would get them there (trade for Shaq), there was a very good chance Nash would be sent away to make it happen. Add that to the fact Mark Cuban didn't exactly roll out the red carpet to make Nash feel wanted (and the Suns did), one can hardly blame him for opting to move to a team where he would make more money, have a bigger role, have a system tailor made for him, and happened to be in the same city where his parents lived to boot. To put it in layman's terms, can anyone honestly say they wouldn't take a new job that offered a huge promotion and raise with what looked (at the time) to be a better company, especially if it happened to be located "back home" in a sense?

I personally think that Nash leaving is what sparked the Mavericks management to make the moves they did that have made them serious contenders. They realized they had made a decision that was going to be hugely unpopular with the fans, and went into overdrive to make sure they ended up with a better team when all was said and done. The Mavericks aren't better because Nash left, but his leaving definitely seemed to light a fire under them to finally build a real team around Dirk instead of just acquiring every offensive-minded talent that came along. All of this may very well result in the Mavericks winning the ring for the next few years, and Nash having to retire without one. He may indeed wonder "what if" (anyone would), but there is far from any guarantee he would have gotten one had he stayed in Dallas either.

by TexSUN on Mar 6, 2007 8:17 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Oops

Sorry, I posted the above in the wrong thread. Dan -- are you able to delete comments? If so, please do the honors and I'll re-post it where I meant it to go. Thanks!

by TexSUN on Mar 6, 2007 8:33 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Good observations!

TexSun,

Excellent points. The thing that scares me the most is your last sentence- it could be prophetic. The Mavs look like a team that could win multiple championships in the next several years, while the Suns not win a single one. It is a very realistic scenario. I don't know how the Suns can get better; the Mavs look like a dynasty. If they were not around, the Suns might have won a ring by now. Nash obviously made the right decision at that time, and nobody can blame him. I would not want to work for an employer who does not really want me either. At this point I seriously doubt that Nash would win the ring unless he goes to another team, and that is not going to happen. He is the most exciting NBA player I have ever watched, and that is sad. I have to consider myself fortunate that I have watched him play live many times because I live in Phoenix.

by Vash01 on Mar 6, 2007 8:34 AM MST reply actions 0 recs

Let's not get carried away

The Mavericks "could" win it every year for the next few years but that's not even close to a guarantee that they will (they haven't even won it once--yet). Even the Spurs, as dominating as they have been in the early 2000's, have always had trouble repeating. I think the level of desire for it the Mavericks have this year will be reduced considerably once they finally do win it. They won't ever be as hungry for it as they are right now. The question is whether the Suns (and Nash) can continue keeping the heat on, and whether they can avoid getting leap-frogged by one of the up-and-comers (Lakers, Utah, etc). It's really too bad they can't move Dallas to the eastern conference for a couple of years. Nash vs. Dirk in the finals would be the best thing since Magic vs. Bird.

by TexSUN on Mar 6, 2007 8:52 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's not put the cart before the horse

The Mavs haven't won anything yet. Let's not crown them before they've won. I still think the pressure gets to Dirk in the playoffs and he hasn't proven me wrong yet. As everyone points out, it's one thing to do it in the regular season. It's another to do it in the postseason.

And I'm still waiting for "old Dirk" to appear once the playoffs start and his teammates aren't playing the way they should. Throwing headbands, yelling at fellow players in front of everyone, whining and complaining are not the marks of a postseason leader. And that's what Dirk has done in the past.

Until he shows me otherwise, I'd vote for him for MVP but I'm definitely not crowning him champion. I'll save that for the Suns.

by Dan on Mar 6, 2007 11:04 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

To beat the Mavs, the Suns must do two things

...ok three things. The first is for both teams to get past whoever they end up with in the first two rounds. If the seedings fall just right, the second round could end up being very challenging for both teams.

If and when the Suns face the Mavs, though, it will be important to take the lead early in the series and hang onto it. You're right that Dirk, and really the entire Mavericks team are sore losers. That is really their only visible flaw nowadays, and it's one that they haven't had a lot of practice overcoming so far this season. If the Suns can get them on the ropes early--and keep them there--then I think they stand an excellent chance of pulling off the "upset". Problem is, playing from ahead has been a major problem for the Suns the past two years. They won the first game in all three series last year (and the Dallas series the year before), then promptly lost the second. Recent opportunities to show they've made some progress in this area (the Phily game to clench the east road sweep) have been less than encouraging. But maybe this is something they can finally get figured out this post-season.

The second thing is to do whatever it takes to blow the game open whenever possible. The Mavericks just seem to have a knack for ending up on the top end of close games. Some people say that's a fluke and that the law of averages eventually evens out, but I don't buy it. They've done it too many times to just be "lucky". The Suns are better at it this year than last year, but still could use some improvement in this area (despite having three of the best clutch shooters in the league, and one of the all-time best free throw shooters). When the Suns beat the Mavericks, it's usually because the Suns went on one of their runs in the final minutes of the game, and ended up ahead by seven or more.

by TexSUN on Mar 6, 2007 11:37 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

Nowitzki does deserve the MVP

I would vote for him. The Mavericks are such a dominant team this year, and Nowitzki is one of the best players in the league. Nash is still the MVP of his team, but I think Nowitzki deserves it this year.

by NativeArizonan on Mar 6, 2007 1:01 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Suns must run and gun

In order to beat the Mavs (or any team, for that matter) the Suns have to play their own game and not let the other team dictate the tempo. When they lose that control, it becomes more difficult (not impossible) for them to win and they lose close games like the three games against Utah, the game in SA, and the game in Dallas. The Suns have to come out firing and create doubts in the minds of the other team. They have a tendency to relax after building a big lead. They have to guard against it. I don't mean they must lead by 20 points all the time, but those 10-0 type runs need to be in the Suns' favor. I agree that getting into a close game against the Mavs is dangerous. Last year Boris burned the Mavs in the last second and they learned a lot from it. Now they play the full 48 minutes. Suns have to make it impossible for them to come back.

The Suns need to play better defense against the 3 point shooters. They have given up too many of those shots. They always have difficulty against some teams and the Lakers are one of them. My feeling is that Denver will pose a challenge to whoever they face in the first round. I am intrigued by a Dallas-Denver post season possibility (hopefully in the first round).

If the Suns keep the pace and make the other team get tired (hard to do against Dallas because of their deep bench), they will have a chance. Remember it was a tired SA team that got beaten in Phoenix, and the game was close till the final 2 minutes. However, I am glad to see the Suns play better defense this year, particularly in closing out the games. That is a huge improvement over last year.

About Dirk and the Mavs whining in the playoffs- we may still see them do that, but they learned something last year- that is to not let it affect their game. JMO. They will be VERY dangerous in the playoffs and I will be happy if another team (even the Spurs) eliminates them.

The concern I have is about Utah too. The Suns have lost 3 close games against them. They are big, talented and they are playing with a lot of confidence.

I sincerely believe that the league needs to move some western teams into the east. It seems like such a big mismatch between the two conferences. Next year Denver and Portland will be much better and probably be contenders. The Suns' path to the top will be even more difficult.

by Vash01 on Mar 6, 2007 10:12 PM MST reply actions 0 recs

Nix on Dallas vs. Denver

If what I saw a couple of weeks ago is any indication, Dallas would sweep Denver easily. Denver just doesn't match up well with Dallas at all, if that game was any indication. (And Denver even had all their guys that night too as best I remember, which is something they don't have more often than not). Besides, I think Suns vs. Denver would be a really entertaining series, which the Suns should win. It probably wouldn't be a sweep, but I doubt the other two potential first round matchups (Lakers or Clippers) would be either, and both of those teams would seem a bigger threat to Dallas than Denver.

by TexSUN on Mar 6, 2007 11:01 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs