Cautiously Pessimistic: Suns Weekly Checkup for 01/06/2008
The Weekly Checkup is back after a much longer than expected hiatus. Christmas preparations and travel are done. Post-Christmas catchup on neglected chores is finally done. Time to get back into the swing of things, which will include far more attention to this blog than it has received in the past month (thanks everyone for the patience).
Since the last time a Weekly Checkup graced the front page here on a Sunday evening (December 2), the Suns have gone 11-6, and briefly held the West lead. For comparison, the once-again West-leading Spurs have gone 8-6 during that same time, and the Mavericks have gone 11-5. The Suns also played practically the entire month of December on the road, and in spite of that, have the second best road record in the West, and the best road win to home loss record as well. In fact, the Suns' road win to home loss record is miles ahead of both Dallas and San Antonio, both of which have losing records away from home. So, why did I entitle my latest weekly checkup "Cautiously Pessimistic"? Because games like the one last night and the one on Christmas Day have left me feeling immediately afterward that I might not need to worry about scheduling my mid-year vacation around the month of June this year.
First things first, it isn't that I expect the Suns to win every game. The criticism launched at uneasy fans all season has been that expectations have grown to the point any loss sends us all into a tizzy. This isn't about that. I fully realize that in an 82-game season, there are going to be times when human nature and/or physical exhaustion, like it or not, will rear its ugly head and the end result will be a loss that, on paper, should have been a win. The Suns are on pace for a very respectable 57-win season that most teams in the league would kill for. No matter what the level of competition, that is something to be proud of and grateful for. However, it isn't the record that concerns me right now as much as who the Suns are having trouble beating this year.
In his latest blog entry, Paul Coro points out that the Suns are 1-6 against the teams that would make the playoffs if they started today. It helps that the one win came against San Antonio (on the road even), but as Coro points out, it cannot be overlooked that the Spurs were without Tony Parker that night. As for the other teams, the loss against Dallas is nothing new (the Suns haven't won a pre-All Star meeting with the Mavericks since 2004), but the pair of losses against the Lakers is troubling, as is the drubbing by the Warriors and the two losses to the Hornets. These are teams the Suns have beaten consistently in recent seasons, yet seem unable to do so now. Either the Suns are guilty of a classic case of underestimating their opponents--multiple times in some cases--or else the opponents have simply gotten better. In all honesty, I think it's more of the latter, which brings me back to the pessimism. If the Lakers, Hornets, and Warriors keep it going (and that's a very big "if"), there's a good chance the Suns will face one of these three teams in the first round of the playoffs. The way they're playing right now, I'd say any one of them is capable of pulling off a Mavericks/Warriors-style upset, or at least dragging out the series to an exhausting seven games. That's assuming the Suns win the Pacific to begin with, which is hardly the no-brainer it seemed to be at the beginning of the season. The West is just that tough.
However, all that said, I am tempering my pessimism with a healthy dose of caution. If there's one things the Suns have proved over the past few years, it's that when people start doubting them, they start proving the doubters wrong. This isn't the first time the Suns have been called out for having trouble with the best of the West. In fact, we were hearing the same thing a year ago. Were it not for one cheap shot and two impulse reactions, the 2006-07 team might have ended up with the rings the Spurs are sporting these days. So, here's hoping the Suns are just saving their best for the playoffs.
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23 comments
Comments
Of course its the latter...
The Lakers are upgraded with Fisher, Ariza and Bynum is playing better.
I'm not saying we can't beat those teams, but its best to be realistic and realize that those teams have gotten significantly better. It can't be an excuse of us playing down to them, but rather the fact that they outplayed us. They are legit teams and in all those losses, exploited our defensive holes.
That said, like you said Suns usually prove doubters wrong and will be in there towards the end (and with a ring, hopefully!).
by alta on Jan 6, 2008 10:00 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
Suns in trouble, and here's why
What upsets me about Saturday's game, is two things: First, it seemed to me that the Suns missed several opportunities to extend the lead to 15 or maybe 20 in the first half when they had it clicking. I think Bell could have helped here. I wonder if he is a starter past this year. The second is that this loss sits squarely on the shoulders of Marion and Stoudemire - two rocks that we have come to depend on in late game situations. I got a laugh over a so-called ESPN round table discussion where the 'experts' theorized that the suns lack of a big man had finally caught up with them. To the uninformed, a first look at the Suns failures this season points to a lack of success with young guys like Bynum, Al Jefferson, and Tyson Chandler (to think we might have had him when the Bulls had him on the block). But a closer look says this is not true. What has been our ready defense against strong frontcourt play in the past? Shawn and Amare just have been such matchup nightmares that we have been able to impose our will on the opposing bigs. But Shawn's play Saturday was awful, and Amare's listless. We are not an elite team if those guys aren't pressing their advantage. If Shawn's play does not pick up, we should mnove him quick. Of late, he has not been worth 10 mil, much less 17 mil. Shawn and Boris are stinking it up, and Amare taking games off is distressing, I thought he had an intense competition with Chandler. Seemed to me that Tyson whipped his butt. Tex's forshadowing of a playoff ouster in the first round could easily come to pass if Marion and Stoudemire don't self motivate.
(Andre Iguodala, Rajon Rondo, Al Horford, and Glen Davis could have helped, if not for the incompetence of the front office. You read right - I said Horford. Jerry Colangelo would have made the Hawks drop the lottery protection)
by Hawk42 on Jan 7, 2008 5:56 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
The West is better than ever
Lakers - better
Hornets - better
Warriors - as good as they were at the end of last season
So suddenly you have two non-playoff teams and two marginal playoff teams who are making serious bids to join the elite of the conference. Which is STILL the Spurs, Suns and Mavs although it's incredible that the top SEVEN teams in the West are within 3 games of each other.
I'll have more of an opinion on the Nugs after tonight, but I think that the Jazz and the Rockets are clearly the ones who are losing out in this.
But anything can still happen. Injuries, slumps. The Blazers can't keep up THIS pace. So what happens when they hit some adversity - will they still be able to hold it together and win more than they lose, or will they go into a funk. Not just for the Blazers, but this could happen to any team, even the Suns.
Still, if the Suns are 'in trouble', at least they are still within half a game of the conference lead. Imagine if they could really get it going the way we know they can. On the other hand, any team that goes into a REAL funk and loses, say, 5 or 6 games in a row (see Jazz, Utah) would suddenly be struggling to even make the playoffs. Let's hope that doesn't happen to the Suns. I don't think it will.
Cautiously pessimistic. Sounds about right, Tex. :)
by SueB on Jan 7, 2008 8:41 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Trouble
That said, we need a good performance against Denver. I am disapointed that DJ is not here to get some time on Iverson.
The teams you mentioned have improved, but the Suns haven't. And I think they had room to improve:
Amare - defense, avoiding fouls
Barbosa - defensive footwork, finishing layups
D'A should fine these two every time they reach for a foul when not in defensive position)
Diaw - going hard to the hoop (I think D'A needs to tell him to go hard and shoot ten times in a row against Indiana. I was going to say he needs to learn to pass out of the double team, but nobody double teams him, he is not a threat).
Banks - hard to improve when you get no time, notice Paul went off in 4Q when Banks wasn't playing, Marcus did a good job when he was in the game.
Nash, Hill, Raja,Marion - none of these guys will ever be better than they are now. Nash, Hill, and Raja because they are getting old, and Marion because he refuses to improve (It is clear he never will, which is why he is impossible to trade, and we should let him go after this year)
by Hawk42 on Jan 7, 2008 9:05 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
More Marion
I think Amare played well on TC and he is doing much better when he jumps the guard on the pick and roll. I think reading his comments that he feels like the team isn't rotating behind him to account for the scheme. Clearly, the team defense isn't there and to me that is a coaching issue.
As for Amare not getting the ball late - well, that's why we lost. I still haven't gone back and re-watched to see if the Hornets did a good job packing it in and denying him the ball or if LB took shots he shouldn't have.
My general feeling after the game was simply that the Hornets wanted it more then we did and these teams like GSW, Lakers, Hornet and maybe Denver have closed the gap and when they are trying harding can beat the Suns.
Clearly, things aren't going well when the Suns can't get up enough to beat these teams. 1 -6 is a real eye opener....but I still think this team will find a way to pull it together and get it done this year. I don't think they should make any big moves this year until we see how well they do this spring. To make a big move now would be a sign of panic and could make things worse. Besides, the Suns don't exactly have a lot of movable pieces. Marion wants a huge extension that no one is going to give him and we aren't trading Amare. No one would take Diaw. Maybe Banks could go to a team in need of a PG but you aren't exactly going to get an impact player in return for him.
by Phoenix Stan on Jan 7, 2008 8:53 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Good analysis
I think Hill is being run into the ground. Being a key starter AND being expected to help run the second unit seems excessive. How about giving Tucker a shot to spell him now and then, even for a few minutes.
I think that the big effort to get Marion 'into the game' the other night was folly. He needs to get over the stats and do what he does best - the defense, the energy. And he needs to figure out that, if he ever really wants to be respected the way he thinks he should be, the single best way is to help lead his TEAM into the NBA finals. And win.
It's been said many times before, but I've finally come around. A 10-man rotation (even if 8 and 9 are getting 5-7 minutes) is needed. The Spurs damn near lost to the Knicks the other night, but they won, thanks to the clutch shooting of Matt Bonner. Matt friggin' Bonner! Could we count on our 8th player on the bench (in terms of MPG) to win a close game with a couple of key players out injured? Doubt it.
I'd like to see some variation of this used as a rotation:
Starters - Amare, Marion, Hill, Bell, Nash
2nd Unit - Skinner, Diaw, Tucker, LB, Banks
Not equal minutes for all of the second unit players, obviously. Tucker might only get a few mpg. But it seems like he should get SOMETHING.
by SueB on Jan 7, 2008 9:17 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Marion, Diaw, etc
As I have said above in my respobse to SueB, Marion has just about exhausted my pationce. I am starting to belive Jim Rome who thinks he is dumb. If he wants to get traded and wants $20 mil, he sure is not going about it in the right way. Also please comment on my gripe that Shawn has not improved as a player much over the years.
I think with a good camp by DJ, Raja might be out of the rotation next year. Also, Although Atlanta's recent play has poured cold water on our excitement for the draft, I still think we can get a 8-13 pick which would net a good player if we draft wisely. I still would like to move up and get beasley, but Sarver messed that up with his giveway of Thomas and picks to Seattle.
by Hawk42 on Jan 7, 2008 9:22 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Atlanta
by TexSUN on Jan 7, 2008 9:40 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Atlanta
Atlanta's improvement is mostly on Josh smith, and to a lesser extent, Horford, and I do not expect them to stay around 500. I've always been amazed to find that Joe Johnson's +/- has always been bad compared with his team mates, they actually play better without him.
by Hawk42 on Jan 7, 2008 10:47 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Raja out of the line-up? A bit hasty, no?
Raja would have to slide pretty far (like past Diaw) to make it out of the rotation. His 3s aren't as automatic as they were the past couple years, but he is still one of the top perimeter defenders in the league (usually noted as #2 behind Bowen) and he's been battling injuries all year. He left Saturday's game with the flu--pretty reasonable excuse (if you need one) for poor play that night.
I'd like to see the rookies get some more time, I'd like to see Banks get off the bench also, and I am very concerned (as Paul Coro writes) not so much about the number of losses but who they are to.
by SoCalSun on Jan 7, 2008 3:15 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
comment on Raja
That said, there is surely enough room for two 6'5 defensive beasts who shoot 3 pointers.
by Hawk42 on Jan 8, 2008 5:48 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Horford
Deng, Sergio, Igudala...none of those guys could have had the impact that Horford would have had on this team playing with Amare and Marion. Or even better, Amare without Marion saving a ton of money that could have been used in other places....
But hey, this is a game that most teams can play. The Spurs let us have LB for nothing for example.
by Phoenix Stan on Jan 8, 2008 8:35 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Coro's latest
I had a whole paragraph about how the Suns' demeanor on the court seems different this year than in recent seasons, but opted to delete it because (a) it made the piece too long and (b) I decided I'd best not comment on something I had no real first-hand knowledge of. But it does look to me like the guys aren't having as much fun this year as in recent seasons. More like it's "just a job" now than in the past. That's not necessarily a bad thing--the Spurs have played "business-like" for years, and it's served them well. But it does make it less fun to watch, and probably fuels a lot of the feeling that something is amiss. Of course, if it's being caused by people not getting along, then that is a bad thing. But again, I don't want to comment too much on something I have no firsthand knowledge of.
by TexSUN on Jan 7, 2008 9:50 AM MST reply actions 0 recs
Coro's chemistry lesson
by Hawk42 on Jan 7, 2008 11:12 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
"Team chemistry"
I think the main problem with the "chemistry" of this team is that it's not clear that every player puts the good of the team in front of their own performances. It should matter more that you win the game than it does whether you got a double-double or got enough shots or minutes.
Sometimes, I think the only players who truly put the team first are Nash and Bell. And I think Hill is probably that way as well.
by SueB on Jan 7, 2008 11:47 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
chem 101
by Hawk42 on Jan 7, 2008 1:02 PM MST reply actions 0 recs
I know!
by TwinnerA on Jan 7, 2008 3:36 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
Replying to myself
by TwinnerA on Jan 7, 2008 3:38 PM MST up reply actions 0 recs
yep
but, I strongly suspect from little hints and details I've read that Joe Johnson wanted out because of chemistry issues, specifically Amare!
but, this quickly comes into the area of picking sides, and I'm not going to guess which side, but only acknowledge THAT SUNS team was right there, and
basically had 5-6 all stars, such a shame...
But, even with all this, I still think the suns can make it happen this year
the most shocking thing to me now, learning that only 3 games separate 1st and 7th place in our division, if we lost a few, we could be fighting for the 8th seed!
by jasonsuns1 on Jan 8, 2008 1:36 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs
JJ again
And speaking of chicago, Paxson raided the Knicks twice in the Eddy Curry trade, getting high picks with no lottery protection (Thomas, Noah). So don't say we can't do the same.
by Hawk42 on Jan 8, 2008 5:42 AM MST up reply actions 0 recs

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