In case anyone was out there asking the question, "Is there any downside to trading away your most reliable shooting guard without getting one in return?" this game is exhibit A.

When Cat Mobley was traded, Ricky Davis was shooting 29.9% on the year coming off the bench for the Clippers.  Since the trade as a starter, he's 2 for 14.  In the course of those two games, he's lowered his shooting percentage to 27.2%.  And mathematically speaking, it's not really easy to lower your percentage when you're already under 30%.  It's obviously in Ricky's head now; early in the third quarter he missed a wide open three by about 2 feet to the right of the rim.  It seems hard to believe that he won't bust out at some point, but how can you continue giving all these minutes to a guy making about 1 in 4 shots on the season, and much much worse lately?

Eric Gordon is a major talent, but also a rookie, and a 19 year old in the deal.  In the first half of this game he threw not one but two passes to people wearing blue shirts in the crowd.  He played a better second half; I love the way he takes the ball to the rim, even if he did run over Devin Harris on the way once.  But he's just not going to be a productive and effective NBA shooting guard on a consistent basis any time soon.

With Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins still in street clothes pending the standard post-trade physical, it stands to reason the Clippers bench is going to struggle in this game.  But it's as if the bench extends to the starter at shooting guard, and the Clippers are playing 4 on 5 when the other team has their starters out there.  In this game, Baron Davis, Al Thornton, Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman combined to shoot 32 for 54 and score 82 points.  The rest of the team shot 4 for 23, 17.4%.

It would have been difficult to win this game regardless.  The Nets made 9 of their first 11 three point baskets.  For the game, the Clippers were outscored by 18 from the three point line and 7 from the free throw line (this despite the Nets shooting very poorly from the line - the actually took 17 more free throws.  You have to make an awful lot of two pointers to make up that deficit.  And the Clippers didn't make nearly enough.

So it's back to LA to start the Zach Randolph era - Zach to the Future.  Of course, there's still no one to play shooting guard.  Does anybody see a problem with that?

Sorry Citizens.  Soccer tournament time - I'm coaching three games today.  Clippers are at New Jersey.  A win would be nice.  It starts at 4:30 on KTLA Channel 5.  Talk amongst yourselves.

Well, it's been a long day.

I just finished watching the game on the TiVo at 1 AM.  I probably wouldn't feel so tired if the game had come out a little differently.  At any rate, I don't really have the energy to do a proper recap, so you're stuck with bullets.

Here's what I got:

• The Clippers took some body blows from the Sixers early - the Sixers like to jump on teams, get steals, get run outs and put you away.  But the Clippers, to their credit, battled back, and controled the game for most of the final 3 quarters.  So that's good.
• The defense was once again pretty good.  It wasn't really the defense that let them down in the end.
• The offensive execution for the final 5 minutes was nightmarish.  I knew it was bad, but I didn't realize until I looked at the play-by-play just how bad.  The Clippers got one field goal and a total of three points over the course of the final 5 minutes.  And the one field goal was an insanely difficult Baron Davis fadeaway.  He had no business taking it, as evidenced by the result the next time down the floor, when he took it again and hit the side of the backboard.  They also committed four turnovers in those final 5 minutes.
  
• So let's go back and say that the defense was better than pretty good.  It was easily good enough to win.  Especially when you consider that Philly's last 5 points were highly unlikely: an Andre Miller three (the guy makes about 5 a SEASON) and the game-winner from Brand on a horrible possession where Iguodala almost lost the ball about 5 times. 
• Mobley's absence clearly hurt tonight.  Eric Gordon and Ricky Davis were each 1 for 5 (though Gordon did do a good job of getting to the line where he was 5 for 6).  Gordon, rightly, got the lion's share of the minutes even though Ricky got the start.  But defensively, although EJ shows a lot of promise, he's still got a long way to go.  He's way to anxious, which shows in the way he bites on pump fakes.  And Andre Iguodala schooled him a couple of times in the game, including for a crucial and-one with 2:30 to go.  He's going to get better - but the Clippers win this game if Mobley is there.
• Thaddeus Young is a monster.  I find it fascinating when Mike Smith kept talking about how they don't run plays for him.  Here's an idea - RUN A PLAY FOR HIM!  He's really good.  They're clearly underutilizing him.
• Marreese Speights looks pretty special too.  So it's interesting - the Sixers spent, what?  $200M or something on Brand and Iguodala and Lou Wiliams this off-season.  And the guys who look like they might actually be pretty good are a couple of rooke contract guys.
• I'm not sure why MDsr has gone to Hart ahead of Taylor again at the point.  Maybe, with Gordon getting so many minutes, he just can't bear to have an all-rookie backcourt.  Maybe given Philly's desire to run, he didn't want Taylor - whose strength is pushing the tempo - playing into their hands.  But Jason Hart is terrible.  His jump shot is painful both in the mechanics and in the results.  He missed a 12 footer by 3 feet in this game.  Hart was minus 9 in 10 minutes of play.  And the Clippers lost by 1.  Ouch.
• By the way, that's two seasons in a row that MDsr has said that he wants to be a running team, and then come out and done nothing remotely resembling up tempo.  I'm beginning to think he's misleading us on that one.
• Al Thornton was really good in the game.  I didn't notice until I looked at the box score, but Al played all 48 minutes.  I was wondering about the three spot in the wake of the trade.  If Ricky's already getting more minutes than he deserves at the two, the who gets the backup minutes at the three?  I guess the answer is, no one.  At any rate, one wonders why the Clippers didn't get him the ball down the stretch. 
• Baron Davis is still not right, for whateer reason.  He had seven turnovers in the game, and was unable to provide what we said he was brought here to do: create scores down the stretch of close games.  Like I said, he made one insanely difficult fadeaway, but the ball was in his hands five straight possessions, and the Clippers never once got a good look out of it.

That's three games now this season that have come down to a final possession in regulation, and the Clippers have lost all three.  Lost opportunities.

The details, according to Ramona Shelburne, are more or less as we suspected.  Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas to the Knicks in exchange for Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins.

When you begin the season 1-9 and are scoring 90 points a game, it's not unusual to make a move.  It's what most franchises would do, and frankly, there's a part of me that's very happy that the Clippers were unwilling to accept their slow start.  You don't want to panic, but as a long time Citizen of Clips Nation, panic is preferable to their usual ineffectual complacency.

Having said that, I think that the trade value would only have increased for Mobley and Thomas as 2010 got closer.  And I'm just not sold that the team got maximum value in this deal.  I was pretty convinced that the Knicks were going to have to package the guy with a pick or an asset like David Lee to get rid of him.  They said over the summer that they thought they could raise his value by showcasing him in D'Antoni's offense.  If that was their plan, it worked perfectly, with the Clippers playing the part of 'yokel rube.'

Zach Randolph is a statistical monster.  But he's never been a winner.  Of course, Elton Brand's never been a winner either.  EB managed to miss the playoffs every year but one, but he was a nice guy, volunteering in the community and making movies in the off season.  Z-Bo spent most of his time volunteering in strip clubs. 

Here's what's really interesting: the Clippers now have four players on their roster that have, at one point or another, put up all star worthy numbers.  In addition to those four, they have second year player Al Thornton and rookie Eric Gordon who both appear to have star potential.  There's no lack of talent on the roster. 

Obviously we were concerned about chemistry before.  There are two ways to look at this trade in that context.  Maybe it makes the chemistry experiment all the more likely to blow up in the test tube.  Or maybe the situation was already so volatile, that  it doesn't much matter that were tossing in another radioactive element.  Only time will tell on that one.

Mardy Collins?  They guy who laid out JR Smith setting off the Knicks-Nuggets brawl?  Really?  Why is he in this deal?

Last thought:  bearing in mind, as Citizen John R has always pointed out, that mega super stars (like LeBron James or Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire) are unlikely to sign with the Clippers - partly because of their reputation, deserved or not, partly because they are unlikely to look much like a title contender as soon as 2010 - maybe this isn't such a bad idea, even from a forward looking standpoint.  Before, you had Thomas, Mobley, Camby, Ricky all expiring in 2010 - you get a ton of cap space, but can you use it?  Now, you still have Camby and Ricky (combined $13M in salary) expiring in 2010, and Z-Bo ($17M... ouch, that hurt just typing it) expiring the next year.  Basically, you've got major trade chips for a year longer.

	vs.
2-9		5-6
Wachovia Center
November 21, 2008 - 4:00 PM
TV: FSN Prime Ticket
Probable starters:
Baron Davis	PG	Andre Miller
Ricky Davis?	SG	Andre Iguodala
Al Thornton	SF	Thaddeus Young
Marcus Camby	PF	Valdemort
Chris Kaman	C	Samuel Dalembert

The Big Picture:

I can't believe I'm even writing this preview.  The way this day is going, but the time I actually post it Zach Randolph will be a Clipper, Elton Brand will be named Man of the Year by the Boy Scouts of America, and everything I say here will be proven indisputably incorrect.  But I'm undeterred.  In all of the 'will EB and MDsr talk?' and 'will Z-Bo be a Clipper?' talk, we seem to have forgotten that this is a pretty important game for the struggling Clippers.  The team played really well for the last 27 minutes of their last game.  Sure, it was against a pretty weak opponent, but it was nonetheless good to see.  Can they bring any of that positive energy into tonight's game?  Does the dynamic change if Cat Mobley and Tim Thomas are packing for New York?  Or even if they're not?  Baron Davis is in a nasty shooting slump, and it's hard to imagine the Clippers winning this game if he is outplayed by former Clipper Andre Miller.  But if Baron can create on offense, even if he's still not on fire from the field, I think the Clippers can win this game.  Kaman and Camby have been playing well, and are starting to develop some rapport on the court, and those two and Baron need to put together good games.  Here's what the Clippers can't do:  they can't fall behind early and let the Sixers starting running downhill.  Philly is an energy team and if they start clicking, they are tough to beat.

The Antagonist:

The Sixers closed last season very strong, and then added an All Star power forward (whose name escapes me) in the off-season.  Expectations were sky-high for the team, understandably so.  So how's that going?  Well, they've started 5-6 against a very soft schedule.  In fact, the Clippers and Sixers have the same number of victories against 07-08 playoff teams (1), and the Clippers have fewer losses to teams with losing records last season (1 such loss for the Clippers, 2 for the Sixers).  But just as the Clippers can use personnel changes as an excuse for a slow start, so can the Sixers.  The better question may be whether their new power forward fits the style of play that was working for them at the end of last year: trapping on defense and running on offense.  On paper so far, it appears to be a good news / bad news story for the Sixers.  The good news: second year player Thaddeus Young is having a great start to his sophomore season, leading the team in scoring and shooting 52.5%.  The bad news:  they have a ton of money tied up in Andre Iguodala, Samuel Dalembert and some other guy, all of whom have had terrible starts shooting the ball.

The Subplots

• Matchups.  There are interesting matchups all over the floor in this one.  Power forward is interesting for obvious reasons.  Although it's worth noting that Camby never defended Brand when he was at Denver.  Center is interesting because (1) Dalembert was a precedent in determining Kaman's contract extension and (2) Kaman played very poorly in both Philly games last season.  Point guard is interesting because it's Baron Davis, the latest great hope for the Clippers at the point, versus Andre Miller, a former great hope that was incredibly disappointing.  And small forward is interesting because it features two second year players, averaging 15 or 16, both leading their team's in scoring.  Young was drafted two spots ahead of Thornton, and the Clippers were supposedly very high on him as well.
  
• Iguodala.  What the hell's wrong with Iggy?  I actually don't know.  Just saw today that he's shooting 38% from the field on the season.  Ouch.  That's almost as bad as Baron; worse in a way, when you consider that Iggy is ove 46% for his career.
• More to come.  Apparently the Clippers have made some trade or other.
• Moving on.  Rather than trying to make this preview coherent, I'm just going to add more bullets.  Everything above this point was BZ (Before Z-Bo).  Now we're in AZ time (After Z-Bo, not Arizona).  The immediate impact of the trade on this game is that the Clippers' starting shooting guard is gone.  I'm guessing that Ricky Davis will get the call, especially given Iggy's size - that's a tough matchup for Gordon.  The Sixers like to play Lou Williams at the two some, and whenever that happens, MDsr will likely counter with Gordon immediately.  But the 1 through the three just got really thin, for tonight and beyond.  With Ricky picking up minutes at the two (and with him mired in a sub-30% shooting slump), does Novak get some minutes at the three?  We're also likely to see Baron on the floor with Taylor or with Hart over the next few days.
• The loss of Tim Thomas.  The Clippers are 2-9 on the season.  But they are 1-0 without Thomas.  Coincidence?  Paul Davis got to guard EB in practice two years ago - he's going to get to do it again tonight.
• My take on the Sixers.  If you have time (and why would you not?  It's not like there's anything else happening), re-read what I wrote about the Sixers in September.  Then read what Bill Simmons said about them (item 7 in his NBA season preview).
  
  ClipperSteve:  Let's look at the Sixers' 'Big Three.'  The Sixers three highest paid players are Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert.  And this will be true for many years barring a trade, as Dalembert is signed for three more seasons, and the wet ink on Brand and Iguodala's contracts says they run for five and six seasons respectively. 

  Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert is a 'Big Three?' 

  If Brand were number 2 in the Philly Big Three, this wouldn't really be a problem.  But unfortunately for Sixer fans, Andre Iguodala would seem to have a very similar problem - he's a phenomenal athlete, he works hard every game, he does many things very well on the basketball court - and he's not particularly good at getting his own shot.

  
  Sports Guy:  In a league in which you're only as good as your best three guys, the 76ers are paying a second banana (Elton Brand) and a third banana (Andre Iguodala) first banana money, and they're paying a role player (Sam Dalembert) third banana money. In a league in which you need a proven crunch-time guy to battle the other proven crunch-time guys in the last three minutes of close games, they don't have a proven crunch-time guy. (And don't tell me it's Brand. I watched him for four years on the Clippers; he's not that type of player.)
  
  
  So I ask you.  Is Bill Simmons reading Clips Nation?  He's Clippers season ticket holder, so it's possible.  Bill?  Are you out there?   I like they way he worded it better, but he's kind of paraphrasing what I said in September, right?  Of course, it may just be that great minds think alike.  It's not that astounding of an insight, I suppose.

What an interesting morning of Clipper-related stuff.  Glad I don't have a job.  Or a term paper due.  (Except that I do have a term paper due.)

As you know, I usually like to have a game preview by this time.  Of course, there aren't many Citizens out there who need a game preview for this one.  It's not like you're sitting there wondering, 'The Sixers... hmm... now who plays for them again?"  At any rate, between my Brand post last night, and some of the stuff going on this morning, I may not get to the preview for a while yet.  Just keeping up with the comments on Clips Nation is pretty full time right now.

So about that other stuff going on.

You should read Lisa Dillman's story in the LA Times about tonight's meeting with Brand.  What's interesting is that, while Baron Davis has always maintained that it was no big deal and that there were no hard feelings about Brand's departure, it does not come across that way at all.  "The mention of Brand quickly wiped away Davis' smile.... Davis hasn't spoken to Brand, and said he doesn't plan to do so.... 'I've got nothing to say to him.'"

And you absolutely MUST read Ramona Shelburne's blog posts recapping l'affaire Brand.  It's in two parts, here and here.  It's an excellent overview of the key events and motivators.  You should also read my comment on the second part (for some reason it's from Anonymous instead of ClipperSteve).  I think the cap situation is slightly misrepresented in the story.  I'm going to try to find the time and the energy to do a full post about this.  Again.

And then there's that trade rumor.

From Alan Hahn's Newsday blog:

The Knicks, Warriors and Clippers are talking about a three-way deal that would involve Jamal Crawford, Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins being sent in a cap-space clearing move that would bring in Tim Thomas, Cuttino Mobley and Al Harrington.

A hat tip to Blazer fan bedhead on this one.  I can't say Citizen bedhead - he was here on a visa.

At any rate, before I got around to posting on this, Ric Bucher on ESPN.com reported that the rumor was half true:  Harrington for Crawford is a done deal and will be finalized soon.

So what about Tim Thomas and Cat Mobley for Zach Randolph?  Well, here's what we can say about that.

First of all, it works under the cap, so there's nothing that precludes such a deal.

Secondly, the Clippers started the season 1-9 and are currently 2-9.  I'd say there's ample reason to be looking at changing things up, wouldn't you?

But the Newsday report was suspicious from the git-go.  Why is this a three team deal?  If Harrington for Crawford works as a standalone trade, and Thomas/Mobley for Randolph works as a standalone trade, then why complicate matters?  A little salary cap tip - when a third team enters into a trade scenario, it is usually because that team has cap space, and therefore is not bound by the same salary matching rules as the other teams.  It is very rare that three teams over the cap can complete a three way deal that can't be completed separately.  (It's not impossible, as the fudge factors on salary matching can be used to make a deal work that would not work standalone - but it's very rare.)

So it seems like some things were conflated this morning.  Obviously it was reported as a three team deal when it turned out not to be, and indeed never had to be.  Furthermore, there was an immediacy and 'realness' to the rumor that was totally justified - for Harrington-Crawford.  But that immediacy got transferred to a separate Knicks-Clippers discussion, that probably was a lot less serious.

By the way, the self same Newsday blog as much as admits that the Clippers portion of the rumor just wasn't right in a later post:

HOWEVER....the Clippers-Zach Randolph scenario we mentioned in the previous blog might not come to fruition.

Hey, that's why we call them rumors.

Change 'might not' to 'will not' and I think we're all set.

Why does this keep coming up?  We know that Thomas and Mobley don't really figure into the Clippers long term plans.  Cat's keeping the seat warm for Eric Gordon (though he's clearly the starter right now) and Thomas has never been a favorite of Clips Nation.  Both have contracts expiring in 2010, making them very attractive to the Knicks as they work to get into the LeBron/Wade/Bosh derby.  (By the way, when Oklahoma City or Memphis or even the Clippers talk about clearing cap space to try to sign a big time free agent, take it with a whole shaker of salt.  Do big time free agents want to play for those teams?  But New York City, Madison Square Garden, Mike D'Antoni, run and fun?  I'm not saying the Knicks get whoever they want in 2010 - but someone will take their money.  That's guaranteed.  So yeah, they are smart to play this particular game.)

We know that MDsr already pursued Z-Bo this summer.  Does he have an affiinty for the guy?  Or does the rumor keep coming up because, hey, he's available?  I wondered if maybe MDsr coached Randolph at Portland, and had some sort of attachment to the guy, like bringing in Vin Baker.  But as it happens, MDsr left Portland the year before Randolph arrived.  Maybe he watched the guy develop with a little more interest since it was his former team.  After all, Randolph quickly made Rasheed Wallace expendable in Portland and MDsr did coach Sheed.  Who knows what the perceived attraction is?

The rumor this summer was that the Clippers were trying to acquire Randolph in a Camby-like deal - giving up nothing but cap space - and that they wanted the Knicks to throw in a pick to sweeten the pot.  So I'll say again what I said when the Kaman rumor surfaced - why would they give up significantly more now?  No, Mobley and Thomas don't figure into the long term plans.  But Mobley is clearly the starting shooting guard right now, and the way Ricky Davis is playing, it would be a pretty big hole to lose Cat for the rest of the season.  As much as I love Eric Gordon, the combination of factors doesn't make sense.  Do they want Zach Randolph in order to compete now?  Well, you don't start a 19 year old if you are planning to compete now.  So you can keep Thomas and Mobley and start Gordon while you're building for the future when you have 2010 cap space.  But you don't make a move to compete now and in so doing decimate your backcourt.

If the Clippers are going to send all that cap space to the Knicks, they're going to get more than Zach Randolph.  Picks, David Lee... something.

But I think what we really have here is a non-trade.  It seemed like a trade because it got mixed up with some serious Knicks-Warriors trade talk.  But it's not happening.

UPDATE:  In classic ClipperSteve fashion (forget about Baron Davis,Elton Brand isn't going anywhere, Allen Iverson to the Clippers) I posted this at 11:55 and at 12:06 Ramona posted from a source that this trade is 'very real, and very close to going down.'  Poop.  Why do you guys read this blog?  I'm pretty much always wrong.  I really hope that if it happens, it involves the Clippers getting more than Zach Randolph.  I don't think that helps the team enough.  Not when both the current starting shooting guard and the future cap space are going away.

The last time I posted specifically about the Elton Brand fiasco was July 10th - two days after he announced his intention to sign with the Sixers.  I always assumed I'd re-address the subject when there was more information, and to be sure I've made comments here and there about it.  But by and large, when I look at what I wrote back in July, I just don't have that much more to say.  I still feel pretty much the same.

Which is interesting.  For one thing, I wrote that post before MDsr went on his press tour.  Before we knew about the text messages, for instance.  But everything we've subsequently learned fits pretty well with my view at the time.  For instance:

Did this really blow up over an Early Termination Option?  This is almost unfathomable (and for the record, I don't believe it).  The Clippers had already given Brand an ETO in the prior contract.  An ETO after year 4 of a 5 year contract for a 29 year old, quite frankly, is in the interest of the team.  You want to end that contract when you're 33?  Um, OK.  If the Clippers really said no when they asked for this, it's one of the all time mistakes.

That very day on the radio, we learned that Brand had indeed asked for an ETO, and that MDsr had responded the next morning saying that it was no problem.  Makes sense - as I wondered at the time, why would it be?  This was the infamous text message that remained unanswered, as Brand and Falk went into 'radio silence'.  It must be stated that all of these 'facts' are just MDsr's side of the story.  He could be lying.  I haven't seen the text messages myself - though I know people who have.  But it doesn't seem like he's lying.  For one thing, Brand has never denied MDsr's version of events.  He's just ignored it, at times referring to some grand disrespect.  But the only specific he's ever given was the ETO - and that never rang true, and indeed apparently wasn't.

There have been a few interesting pieces of information in the last few days: Brand calling MDsr to tell him about Baron, MDsr telling Brand that he had $27M to split between them.  It all dovetails nicely with the version of events we've long since accepted: Brand had every intention of signing with the Clippers until something changed around July 3.  And you know what?  It's fine.  He's allowed to change his mind.  But I do think you need to be an adult about it.

This idea that Brand has spoken with the Clippers assistant coaches and the players, but not spoken to Dunleavy - with whom he was "as good as player and coach could be" - is just ludicrous.  Because there's nothing to talk about?  Really?  First of all, what exactly does he have to talk about with Jim Eyen?  More importantly, it seems to me there is something to talk about.  "Hey coach, yeah, it's me, EB.  Um, yeah, sorry about screwing you back in July."  You could talk about that.  That might fill a phone call or two.

David Falk's explanation in the aftermath went something like this:  yes, Elton had an agreement with the Clippers, and that's the problem.  Dunleavy should have known better than to be talking directly to a player.  Only the agent can make the deal.  Interestingly, as opposed to just stepping in and finishing the negotiation, Falk essentially blackballed Dunleavy for having breached protocol - he told Brand to turn off his cell phone, and he himself stopped talking to the Clippers.  I have to say, it seems like a strange way to serve your client - to break off all communications with one of the very few entities bidding for his services. 

Technically, perhaps Falk is right.  Perhaps it was some legal faux pas for Dunleavy to talk to Brand.  Of course, it seems that Brand initiated the conversations - what was MDsr supposed to do?  Stick his fingers in his ears and run away humming loudly to himself?  But more to the point, give me a break.  Elton Brand is a grown man - if he wants to have a conversation with his coach of seven years, he can do that.  And if David Falk says, "Elton you shouldn't have done that.  Give me your phone."  Elton should say "Excuse me?  Close the deal a-hole, and stop treating me like a baby or I'll get a new agent."  Talk about being disrespected... give me your phone?  Wow.

As I said, Elton has the right to change his mind and what's done is done.  It's hard to know what exactly this does to his reputation.  He was one of the squeaky-cleanest stars in the NBA, and it's pretty difficult to reconcile that with this betrayal.  And we've got the quotes - "I'm not a quitter."  "I want to be a Clipper."  "Get me BD and $75M and I'm in."  But in the end, will anyone outside of Clips Nation care?  Does anyone outside of Cleveland think badly of Carlos Boozer?  Or even remember what happened?  Let's face it, Boozer became an All Star and went to the Conference Finals after he lied to a blind guy and bolted for Utah.  The number of people who idolize Carlos Boozer is certainly much greater today than it was when he was in Cleveland.  Because everyone loves a winner.  Brand will get more exposure, more All Star appearances and possibly more wins playing in Philadelphia.  He'll probably gain fans across the east coast, not just in Philly, who will get to see him play a lot more now.  And he didn't even lose much of LA - Laker fans are probably glad he's gone.  In fact, everywhere else in the NBA, there's no doubt a general feeling of "The Clippers must have done something to screw that up.  Brand's such a nice guy, and the Clippers are just a bunch of losers."

So let's face it, Brand really won't suffer for this.  He won't be considered quite the eagle scout he was before.  But he's still a model citizen by the standards of NBA basketball players.  And he's still a hell of a ball player.

But it doesn't change what happened.

Chris Kaman can drive a blogger crazy.

As recently as the Spurs preview, I singled him out as "the biggest culprit in the last two games."  That criticism was I believe justified in the case of the Sacramento game - he was not good, and for his efforts (or lack thereof) he earned a place on the bench in the fourth quarter.  As bad as the Clippers reserves have been this season, you know he's not playing well when MDsr sits him down the stretch.  The Warriors game is a little trickier.  In the score sheet, he looks great.  15 points, 13 rebounds.  Who could ask for more?  Well, I guess I could.  He was outplayed by Biedrins in that game, and he missed several opportunities where he didn't grab a rebound, or didn't finish a shot.  You know - Mr. Flippy stuff.

But in the big picture, if we were wondering which Kaman we were going to get this season, there are signs that we are version 2.0 or better.  He started poorly - there's no denying that.  As it happens, one of the areas where he's shown marked improvement this season is avoiding silly fouls.  The two exceptions are the two games with the Lakers, in which he was limited to 30 minutes each because of foul trouble.  But after three average to poor games to start the season, the guy has been very, very good (Kings game notwithstanding). 

It's dangerous to write a paean to the guy directly after the strong game he played against the Thunder.  No doubt he'll come out tomorrow and lay an egg.  It's particularly risky considering how badly he played against the Sixers last season, when he averaged 7 points and 8 rebounds in 2 games and was completely outplayed by Sam Dalembert.  Inconsistency has been a problem throughout his career so who knows what we'll get from game to game.

Still, something feels different this time.

Kevin at ClipperBlog noticed also.

What’s the difference?  Chris is doing a better job of passing out when he knows he’s liable to get into trouble.  It’s a great life skill — knowing one’s limitations. It’s a particularly good life skill when you’re an NBA center.  Tonight, it’s as if Chris is able to say to himself, “this isn’t going to end well” in those instances when it’s apparent to everyone he’s going to cough up the ball or overwork his shot.

It's worth noting that in the two really painful losses to the Kings and Warriors, the ones I hung on Chris, he had zero assists and seven turnovers.  Last night in OKC?  Six assists and one turnover.

He's probably not going to get six assists a night for the rest of his career.  But if he has indeed developed a new life skill, this is how it would manifest itself.  He'll get more assists, and he'll turn the ball over less.  And the difference for the team is huge. Chris is quite self-aware, particularly as compared to the typical NBA player.  Still, he's not been particularly good at recognizing his limitations.  If indeed he's developing that ability, it would be a major step forward.

The Clippers first basket last night was a perfect illustration of how good Chris Kaman can be.  A simple center screen and roll with Baron and Kaman - Chris slips past Robert Swift, catches the pass in the lane, and drops it off immediately to Marcus Camby for the layup as Nick Collison tries to rotate.  Although he made it look easy, it's anything but.  First of all, it's a tough catch, with the ball coming from the top, rolling to the hoop.  You basically have to turn your head completely away from the direction you're moving.  You have to make the catch, get your bearings, avoid running over the help defender, and make a decision with the ball, all in a split second.  When it works, it's a layup.  When it doesn't, it's an offensive foul or some other type of turnover.  In year's past, Chris would have tried to put the ball on the floor and take it himself, and it would not have 'ended well'.

Six assists is one off Chris' career high of seven - a number he's only achieved once.  This is the second time he's gotten six in a game, ranking last night among the three highest assist totals of his career.  And there was only one cheap one in there - the kick out to Jason Hart was a bail out.  Other than that, his assists were all legit in the true sense of the stat; they were instrumental in leading to the basket.  Three were on kick outs to open shooters at the right time and in the right spot, and the other two were to Camby for layups. 

And although the evidence is anecdotal at best, I think a big part of Chris' improved efficiency is the presence of more creative players around him.  Obviously, the Clippers offense has been less than stellar this season, as measured by any number of statistics.  BUT, it would seem that Kaman has nonetheless benefited from the threat of other players on the court, as well as improved passing from the likes of Baron and Camby.  Where were the 11 for 13 games for Kaman last season?  When the offense consisted of 'post-up Chris and let him make a move', the result was 48% shooting from the field.  Last night's game featured none of the all-too-typical six dribble Kaman moves.  In most cases, he caught the ball in position to score.  So whereas he has the ability to convert that jump hook or that spin move starting from the left block, it's nonetheless a whole lot more efficient for him to catch the ball and finish.  Six of his first seven baskets were assisted last night - that will tend to get a guy going.  Furthermore, 10 of his 11 field goals were at the rim, and at least three were dunks. 

It remains to be seen if these are permanent improvements in his game or simply a handful of good nights strung together.  But if you could wave a magic wand and make transform Chris Kaman, you'd want him to make good decisions when he catches the ball, to make good passes out of the post, and you'd expect those things to improve his shooting percentage, increase his assists, and limit his turnovers. 

Keep a close eye on his assists and turnovers in Philly.

For one night - for a little over one half, to be precise - the Clippers were not the worst team in basketball.  In fact, as they were dismantling the actual worst team in basketball, the Clippers looked like a pretty good team.  Maybe it was just by comparison, but still.  They had to fall behind by 15 before that good team showed up, but better late than never.

It's pretty difficult to explain the Clippers' shooting sometimes.  Taking a gander at the shot chart for this game, in the first quarter Al Thornton made a three pointer and Baron Davis made a 16 footer, and those were the only baskets the team scored from beyond 2 feet.  The missed 9 jumpers in the quarter.  Then, in the second quarter, it was more of the same - 2 for their first 11 from outside of the paint.  It was just brutal.  But they battled back from that 15 point deficit behind some very strong defense (coupled with some pretty ugly OKC offense).  Fortunately for them, the steals were allowing them to get baskets going to the rim, because they still couldn't make a shot.

Then, in the second half, suddenly the basket got big.  They turned their percentage upside down and missed only one jumper in the third quarter.  They weren't quite as hot in the fourth, but they continued to make enough jump shots to pass for an NBA team.

The Clippers aren't going to have many more quarters this season where they make 9 out of 10 jump shots like they did in the third.  But if they play defense like they did (and indeed like they did down the stretch in the San Antonio game) then they won't have to.  And that's what is most encouraging about this game - the Clippers appear at times to be a very good defensive team.

When they traded for Camby, I said that having him and Kaman as defensive backstops, the perimeter defenders could gamble for steals.  Well, guess what?  Cat Mobley had seven steals in this game and Baron Davis had four.  (Although, to be fair, Cat was hardly gambling.  He just picked Durant clean time after time.)  14 steals and 9 blocks is a LOT of shots you're taking away from the other team. 

The bad news in the game (aside from the ice cold first half shooting) was the bench.  The starting unit looked great.  Even Baron Davis, although he remained ice cold (5 for 15), made major contributions passing (8 assists) and defending (the aforementioned 4 steals).  But the second unit was abysmal.  At one point, before Mike Taylor and Steve Novak hit some garbage time jumpers, they were 3 for 21.  Tim Thomas and Ricky Davis, supposedly the instant offense off the bench veterans, combined to make 1 shot in 12 attempts.  The Clippers fell behind with the reserves on the floor in the second quarter, and the scrubs even let OKC get a little momentum back in the fourth.  MDsr, to his credit, came back with Camby and Kaman really quickly at the end, just to make sure the game didn't get close.

Kaman had an absolute monster game.  Put it this way: his fantasy owners are very happy right about now.  25 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 blocks, 11 for 13 shooting, 3 for 3 form the line, and only 1 turnover.  That's a game.  He only took one shot that wasn't a layup or a dunk (he made it), and he actually finished his plays around the basket.  He's made 54 of 81 shots in his last 8 games - that's 2 out of 3 folks.  He's also been rebounding very well, with 13, 13 and 14 in his last three.

Marcus Camby also had a nice game, and the difference for the team was night and day when Camby and Kaman were on the floor.  Kaman was plus 31 for the game and Camby was plus 30.  Guess who wasn't on the floor when OKC went on their first half run? But they're not just doing the things you expect like rebounding and blocking shots.  The Clippers just played better when they were on the floor.  How about this stat - Kaman 6 assists, Camby 4.  That's 10 assists from a couple of seven footers - many of them to each other.  I've said it before, but the team could be very interesting if the two of them can develop some rapport.  They're both highly skilled players for their size.

It's great news of course that Kaman and Camby are playing well - but the bad news is that the bigs off the bench were so ineffective tonight.  Going into the season I surmised that one of them would have to be on the court at all times, staggering their rest.  So far MDsr has not taken my advice, but many more games like tonight and he won't be able to ignore it much longer.  Like I said, he did come back with his starting bigs pretty quick in the fourth.

So win number two is in the books, and although it's against the lowly Thunder, it was pretty emphatic, for what that's worth.  A win in Philly Friday night will be more difficult (and much sweeter of course).

	vs.
1-9		1-10
Ford Center
November 19, 2008 - 5:00 PM
TV: KTLA Channel 5
Probable starters:
Baron Davis	PG	Earl Watson
Cuttino Mobley	SG	Kevin Durant
Al Thornton	SF	Jeff Green
Marcus Camby	PF	Nick Collison
Chris Kaman	C	Robert Swift

The Big Picture:

There can be only one.  In a Battle of the Titan(ic)s, two sinking ships meet in Oklahoma City.  The Clippers are 1-9, the Thunder 1-10.  One of them will get their second victory tonight; league rules require it.  The Clippers first 10 games were theoretically against very good competition - 9 of the opponents won at least 48 games last season.  But hidden in that factoid are many advantages in the early season schedule.  For one, they've only had two road games, and only one trip out of Staples Center (they played one road game against the Lakers).  They're 1-7 at home.  Fully half of their 10 opponents have been playing the second of back-to-back games, yet they are 0-5 in those games.  And eight of the ten opponents were missing a starter.  They're 1-7 in those.  I've heard both Baron Davis and Ralph Lawler suggest that this road trip may be good for the team - build some camaraderie, get away from some LA distractions.  We'll see.  I think the best thing about this game, from the Clippers' perspective, is that the opponent stinks.

The Antagonist:

Now this is how you rebuild.  Or at least, they've got the first part down; the part where you hit rock bottom.  The Thunder's top three scorers are 20 year old Kevin Durant (21 points per game), 22 year old Jeff Green (15) and 20 year old Russell Westbrook (12).  Their leading rebounder is 22 year old Robert Swift.  The problem is, no one else is averaging in double digits.  The Thunder have a new city, some young talent, extra first round picks in each of the next two draft, and about a ton of cap space for the foreseeable future.  Can they get free agents to move to Oklahoma?  That remains to be seen, but it's no surprise that they're losing this season - that's all part of the plan.  Step 1 is working perfectly.  But Step 2 often proves to be the tricky part.

The Subplots

• How bad have these teams been?  There are only three teams in the NBA averaging fewer than 90 points per game.  These are two of them.  There are only eight teams in the NBA allowing over 100 points a game.  Once again, we'll be watching two of them tonight.  I'm no expert, but it seems to me that if you can't score, and you can't keep the other team from scoring, you won't win many games. 
  
• C-Weezy.  Former Clipper Chris Wilcox has missed the last 5 games with a sore knee.  He is expected to play tonight.  Wilcox is an amazing athlete who's never really figured out the game of basketball.  He's been playing behind Nick Collison this season, and is shooting 39% from the field in 6 games.  Not what you want from your power forward.
  
• Speaking of sub-40% shooting.  The Clippers as a team are now above 40% after spending much of the early season below that mark.  In fact, they've improved all the way to 41.2%, second worst in the NBA.  Who is worse?  Do you really have to ask?  Several key Clippers remain below 40% - Baron Davis (36.4%), Tim Thomas (39.8%), Ricky Davis (32.3%), both rookie guards, etc.  The three Davises are all below 40%, the first time in the history of the NBA that three teammates with the same last name have accomplished that.  (I just made that up, but I'm pretty sure it's true.)
  
• Baron's shooting.  Baron's 36.4% is not good, obviously.  And in the latest three game losing streak, he's been particularly bad - 16 for 51.  That really hurts, especially given that the Clippers should have won all three of those games considering the opposition.  So what's going on?  Is it a grand conspiracy to drive out MDsr, or maybe to get him to loosen the reigns a little?  It seems more likely that this is a shooting slump, plain and simple.  Baron's never been a high percentage shooter - he's just over 41% for his career, and he actually had three straight entire seasons where he shot under 40%.  So we shouldn't expect him to shoot 50% (or even 45%).  But hopefully he won't continue with 16 for 51 either.  A couple of good games where he gets hot, and he'll be right back on his career average.  One more thing:  I think we've ignored that he's playing with a partially torn ligament in his left ring finger.  It's certainly conceivable that the injury is causing him to be off some.
  
• Rebounding.  The Clippers out-rebounded the Spurs on Monday, the first time this year they've gotten more rebounds than their opponent.  The Thunder are actually a pretty good rebounding team so far (although that's deceptive, since there are so many misses in their games).  Nick Collison has destroyed the Clippers on the boards in the past.  If the Clippers expect to win this game, they will have to box out and keep Collison and others off the offensive glass.
• The tallest shooting guard in the world.  Kevin Durant is a prodigious talent, that much is certain.  He's very long, and incredibly skilled.  He seemed to be figuring out the difference between a good shot and a bad shot towards the end of last season.  And his shooting percentage is up slightly so far this season.  But his assists are down, and his turnovers are up, and both of those numbers were pretty bad to begin with.  Part of that is the fact that the players around him just aren't that good, and Durant is forced to take a lot of shots.  Fortunately for the Clippers, Cat Mobley has an uncanny ability to defend against taller opponents.  It will be interesting to see if Eric Gordon (small for a two guard) gets the chance to use his strength against Durant's length at all tonight.
• Battle of the Sophomores.  This game features three of the five first team all rookie selections from last season: Durant, Green, and Al Thornton.  Thornton and Green will be matched up opposite each other from the opening tip, and each of them is the second leading scorer for their team at about 15 a game.  Given the difficulty each of these teams have scoring the ball, it may well be that whoever wins that contest will give their team a significant advantage in the game.
  
• UCLA point guards.  Baron Davis, Earl Watson and Russell Westbrook all played point guard for the Bruins (although Westbrook only did so while Darren Collison was hurt).  Watson and Davis arrived in Westwood together, though Baron left for the NBA a couple years early.  If nothing else, this will give Citizens Zhiv and Jax and other UCLA fans a little extra reason to watch tonight.