As mentioned in an earlier post, Jeff over at Celticsblog has gathered together bloggers from across the country to write previews of their teams. We are all using the same format, and here is my contribution:

Team: Dallas Mavericks
Last Years Record: 51-32
Key Losses: Avery Johnson
Key Additions: DaSagana Diop, Gerald Green, Rick Carlisle

1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?

The single biggest move made in the offseason was the dismissal of head coach Avery Johnson and the hiring of Rick Carlisle. The Mavs have the luxury (or curse) of having their core team signed for some time. This continuity will certainly help the team transition under a new coach, as they only need to adapt to him rather than a bunch of new faces. Carlisle has impressed so far, and his biggest challenge is creating a more flexible offense for what is still a potent group of weapons, from Jason Terry's dead eye shooting to the unique assets that Dirk Nowitzki brings. Avery Johnson could never figure this out, and his reliance on isolation plays was a major factor in the Mavs playoff woes over the past few years.

That said, Carlisle has some big shoes to fill on defense, as Avery Johnson took a mediocre defensive team and honed them into a very strong one. Carlisle, whose defensive reputation is top notch, shouldn't have too much of a problem here. Still, if Johnson excelled anywhere, it was in his ability to consistently get the team to overperform on defense, and that will be missed.

The other big move was the return of center DaSagana Diop, whose new face is actually one the Mavs are quite familiar with, as he was only away from the team for the second half of last season. The goal for the Mavs is to have Erick Dampier and Diop return to their very good platoon performance of the 67 win season.

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?

An excellent forward tandem in all-stars Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard and also steadily improving Brandon Bass. If Diop and Dampier return to form, the Mavs will be incredibly versatile and potent at the forward and center positions.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

Shooting guard, where aging veteran Jerry Stackhouse and erratic youngster Antoine Wright will fight it out for playing time. Jason Terry may also spend some time at shooting guard, pairing with Jason Kidd. Although that will be a difficult pairing against the elite point guards in the western conference. Raw Gerald Green may make an impact at some point, but we haven't seen too much of an indication of that so far in training camp.

Also, age is a looming weakness. Jason Kidd can still pass the ball better than anyone in the league, but his abilities on defense and his weakening offensive skillset will be a problem. With Jerry Stackhouse and Devean George also pegged to be getting big minutes, the Mavs are certainly not getting any younger.

4. What are the goals for this team?

While the perception is that the Mavs have fallen from elite status, a look at the roster shows that this is more perception than reality. The Mavs core group of players is still the same, with the glaring exception of Jason Kidd, and it is distinctly possible that Carlisle can find a way to utilize Kidd's court vision and size on offense in a way that Johnson could not. Still the team is one year older and still have playoff demons in their past. The goal of the team is certainly to win the championship this year, although I believe that they feel that the fight to do so will be harder than in the past, a past where they failed to reach the top any way. 

5. Will Dirk Nowitzki's game finally start to decline?

Dirk's efficiency has been stunningly strong for a long time now. He said emphatically that he felt his game was much stronger with Jason Kidd at the point than Devin Harris. If that's the case, then it is distinctly possible that Dirk will have another strong year, although improving on his already spectacular offensive efficiency will be practically impossible.

Predicted Record: 55-27

Jeff over at CelticsBlog has gathered some of the leading blog writers across the country to write previews of the upcoming season. We will, of course, be taking part, but the series is starting off with a preview of Jeff's own Celtics and the Atlantic division:

Boston Celtics
Jeff Clark: CelticsBlog.com    
Jim Weeks: Green Bandwagon      
FLCeltsFan: LOY's Place
John Karalis: Red's Army
Dustin Chapman: Celtics 24/7

New Jersey Nets
Dennis Velasco: About Basketball

New York Knicks
Joey: Straight Bangin'
Seth Rosenthal: Posting and Toasting

Philadelphia 76ers
Dannie & Pete: Recliner GM
Jon Burkett: Passion and Pride

Toronto Raptors
Franchise: RaptorsHQ.com
Ryan McNeill: Hoops Addict
Cuzzy: Cuzoogle

Also see links to all the previews at CelticsBlog.com

With Rick Carlisle in the building, Bill Ingram over at Hoopsworld floated the possibility of a Mavs trade for Jermaine O'Neal of the Pacers during the summer. The centerpiece of his article was that the Mavs would trade uneven Josh Howard for oft-injured O'neal. Ingram doesn't go into details on how such a trade could work in terms of parts, but the guys over at Indy Cornrows took a whack at the possibility (with a hat tip to Caught in the Web) and found it unlikely for a few reasons.

First of all there is the salary issue of a $10 million difference in salaries. That's a large amount to fill in. Another player or players would have to be included to make it work.

Next up, and perhaps more importantly from Indy's standpoint, there is Howard's comments about smoking marijuana:

Josh Howard is a great player and no doubt a good guy, but the Pacers can't take a risk of having another player suspended for drug use and Howard would definitely constitute a risk.

These are compelling points. However, the article makes one key point that I think makes this trade distinctly possible:

...combined with Dampier, it might be as good a deal as the Pacers could find for J.O.

And that deal--Dampier and Josh for O'Neal--is a compelling one for the Mavs. It's a risk, of course. The Mavs are trading two starters for one, but there is a significant upside in that the Mavs would have an extremely strong two-way center to pair with Nowitzki and Kidd. With Kidd on the court the Mavs could certainly use Terry as a small 2 guard sniper. The real problem would be the hole that Howard leaves at small forward. Could Bass fill that position? These are the kind of intriguing questions and risks that make this deal interesting.

But there is an evern more compelling reason to make this deal: O'Neal's contract. Howard and Dampier have three more years on their deals than O'Neal, who would come off the books--guess when? Yes, the exact same year that Kidd comes off the books. That puts the Mavericks in a spectacular salary cap position, while still having a Dirk on the roster.

So Jermaine O'Neal for Erick Dampier and Josh Howard is similar to the Jason Kidd deal in that it is a "win now" risk with fantastic long-term prospects for the team to build on if it doesn't work out (and even if it does work out!).

Note what the Indy Cornrows guys said, as well: "...it might be as good a deal as the Pacers could find for J.O."

The real wild card here is the relationship between new Mavs coach Rick Carlisle and Jermaine O'Neal. O'Neal doesn't have a problem with Carlisle, but he is far from a fan. When Jim O'Brien replaced Carlisle at Indiana, O'Neal was very public how he liked O'Brien's offense more than Carlisle's (even though his production went down). O'Neal also found Carlisle aloof, a common criticism of Carlisle. All told, Carlisle here isn't going to make O'Neal enthusiastic about joining the team, although it isn't a deal breaker either. The interesting thing is that the opposite doesn't seem to be the case: Carlisle use O'Neal very effectively in Indiana, and it is quite possible that Carlisle would be enthusiastic about such a trade.

In the end, this is one of the real intriguing possibilities for the summer and one that makes a lot of sense for both teams.

While it is trendy to bash Avery Johnson, there is no doubt he is an excellent young coach. Johnson definitely has weaknesses, however, and, looking ahead, it is important to identify Avery's weaknesses and see if new head coach Rick Carlisle can improve them. The early indications make one cautiously optimistic.

Running A Fluid Offense, Empowering Point Guards

The first issue is if Carlisle has a desire to control the flow of the game on the offensive end as Johnson did. Much has been written about Carlisle's time spent at the Suns training camp, observing how D'Antoni teaches and runs his offense. Jerry Stackhouse has also said that Carlisle is the type of coach that adapts to his players. All of this is in direct cotnrast to Johnson, who held the reigns of the Dallas offense with an iron fist, from talented young point guards like Devin Harris to hall of fame point guards like Jason Kidd.

You cant' find a better first-hand observer of Carlisle's work with point guards and an offense than Chauncey Billups, the Detroit Pistons all-star point guard who blossomed on Carlisle's watch. Here is Chauncey on Carlisle :

You know what, it was great. He gave me the freedom that I hadn't got in league yet, so it was a great opportunity for me and that was really my coming out party playing under him and letting me play my game. It worked well and we got to the Eastern Conference finals and we were the number one team in the East. We did not get to go all the way but it worked. I am very grateful to him for that opportunity.

Drawing Up Plays

Another area where Johnson was often criticized was his ability to draw up plays to close out a game or quarter. In contrast, this is one area where Carlisle is roundly considered one of the best in the game.

Here's a lengthy quote from an old article by Dr. Jack Ramsey on when Rick Carlisle was hired by the Pacers that sheds major light on Carlisle's strength in this area:

Clearly, Larry Bird has high regard for Carlisle. When I spoke with Bird last spring, we were discussing end-of-the-game situations and how coaches draw up plays. Oftentimes, the play doesn't work out the way it's drawn up, Bird interjected, "Have you ever seen Rick Carlisle draw up a play? He's superb at doing that."

Which, by the way, is no small task. Oftentimes, while sitting courtside for radio, I'm able to watch what the coaches are drawing up on special plays -- sometimes it looks like a road map in a traffic jam with lines all over the place. You can tell the players are looking, but not necessarily understanding what's in front of them.

Certainly this one aspect doesn't make a great coach, but it's a nice attribute to have and speaks to Carlisle's skill level.

Player Rotations

Most of the Mavericks players seemed to love Avery Johnson, but Johnson often seemed to generate that love by giving players playing time, whether deserved or not. One of the single biggest criticisms you can make of Johnson was his inability to commit to a specific player rotation.

Carlisle has a reputation for using his players wisely and consistently. Look at this article (via Smartmarks) from the Associate Press, which outlines one of the main reasons he was hired in Indianapolis: To improve Isiah Thomas' poor player rotations.

It obviously remains to be seen how Carlisle can adapt to the Mavericks. But in terms of shoring up weaknesses left over from the Avery Johnson era, the team looks to have found the right person for the job.

The one Mavs opinion I was interested in hearing of Rick Carlisle as coach of the Mavericks was Jerry Stackhouse, and David Moore printed that today in the Dallas Morning News.

What's so interesting about Stackhouse's opinion? Well, you hear it from every sportswriter in Dallas: Jerry Stackhouse is the one Maverick player who never talks in soundbites. He doesn't hesitate to tell you how he feels, even if he sometimes steps on some toes. It is also important to note that Stackhouse thinks Avery Johnson is a fantastic coach. Finally, Stackhouse also played for Rick Carlisle in Detroit before he was traded to Washington. Put all the above together, and you have a recipe for some dynamic Stackhouse honesty.

So what did Stack have to say?

He's the best guy available and the best coach for our team with our personalities. He's the best fit without question. There are not enough positive things I can say about him.

Stack also addressed some specifics. A few of which are eye-opening in their illustation of Carlisle's strengths:

The knowledge to devise a play that results in a wide-open shot at the end of a close game? Stackhouse said Carlisle does it consistently.

The insights to give a player a tip that will help improve his game? Two staples of the Stackhouse repertoire, the post-up move at the free throw line and the jab step that creates space for a jump shot, were taught to him by Carlisle.

In short, we have a player who has lost one of his favorite coaches of all time and is excited about the new coach who is replacing him. As players go, it's an important Carlisle endorsement.

From ESPN's coverage of Mike D'Antoni's situation in Phoenix:

Sources close to the situation have maintained for days that D'Antoni does not want to continue coaching in Phoenix if he must implement the changes suggested by his bosses, which include increasing the time spent practicing defense...

Wait, did that just say what I think it said?

It was December 6, 2007, and for a Mavs team reeling from its worst stretch of the season it was just one more blow. At home against the Denver Nuggets the Mavs were sliced and diced by Allan Iverson and dropped their second straight game in the process of losing six in nine. Dirk Nowitzki could have been speaking for head coach Avery Johnson when he described the game: "It was a layup drill out there. At no point in the game I thought we could really stop them."

Avery Johnson puts a lot of emphasis on judging his team in 20 game increments, and after what he saw in the previous 19 games, this loss to Denver was more than a symbolic close to the first 20 games of the season: It was the final straw. He had done everything he said he would do coming into the season. He had let young players like Brandon Bass and J.J. Barea get significant playing time. He had unleashed Devin Harris to control the game and the Mavs offense. He had moved Jason Terry to the bench and increased the size of his shooting guard position. For twenty games Avery Johnson had done what everyone else had told him to do, and for what... a thrashing at the hands of the Nuggets?

The result from Johnson was immediate and severe and led to his losing the season, the team, and ultimately his job.

After the Denver loss, the first thing he did was strip Devin Harris of his freedom to run the offense. Fast breaks and offensive sets built off of transition were removed, as Johnson slowed the game down so that he could call plays and run the offense. For the first 20 games the Mavs offense was clocking in at 90 pace, a significant gain over the previous year's glacial offensive pace. As we noted in a previous column, however, the pace was inconsistent. Twice in November Harris directed back-to-back-to-back games where the first game had a pace of over 95, which was followed up with a game where the pace plummeted to under 84, only to have the pace increase again to over 92. This inability to control the pace of the game clearly drove Johnson crazy, and the low point was, not coincidentally, the Denver game on December 6, where the Mavs played completely at Denver's pace, over 100.

The next five games after Denver the Mavs pace never went over 85 and averaged an almost unbelievably slow pace of 83. To put this into perspective, the slowest team in 2006-2007 was the Detroit Pistons, and they averaged a pace of 86. After Denver, Johnson put the hammer down on Harris, and he never let up.

Denver also was the moment when Johnson gave up on working to improve his bench and grow players into the rotation. He dramatically lowered the minutes of Barea, who had averaged 11.3 minutes per game in November but saw his minutes drop to 7 minutes per game in December and 4 minutes per game in January. Dasagana Diop, who averaged 23 minutes per game in November, found himself riding the pine and averaging 12 minutes per game in December. Even Brandon Bass, who showed real flashes of excellence, saw his minutes cut by over 4 a game from November to December.

In short, after the Denver loss, Avery Johnson lost his perspective on the team, what it needed to do, what HE needed to do, and, perhaps most importantly, the value of listening to advice from others. His response was extreme, and it reverted the Mavericks back to the team that lost in the first round of the playoffs the previous season: A one-dimensional iso-focused offensive team that was eminently beatable in a series. Even worse, it was clear as the season wore on that Avery's reversion to his system adversely affected his players, which affected their effort, especially on the defensive end.

Here were my comments at the halfway point of the season:

By now you should be seeing a pattern: The Mavericks defense is slightly worse in every single aspect other than fouling the opposition. There are two things to take from this: The first is that the Mavericks are suffering death by papercut on defense. The small declines in multiple defensive categories adds up to a significant decline overall. The second thing to take from this is that there is a reason for what we're seeing: A drop in overall defensive aggressiveness.

Make no mistake about it: Avery Johnson is a very good defensive coach, but if the players don't have their heart into it, you see what I outlined above. After Denver, Johnson's moves demoralized the team. Even if they didn't say it, you could see it in their performance on the court.

Certainly we can't blame one game for Johnson giving up on all of the important tasks that he had to tackle coming into the season, but the game was absolutely a turning point. It was after this game that Johnson gave up on all those important initiatives and adjustments that the team needed to move ahead. After twenty games of chaos and a debacle against Denver, Johnson retreated to what he was comfortable with: His system. His offense. His rotations. His plays. His way.

Home teams, so far in these playoffs, are 15-4.

Being down 0-2 after two road losses doesn't seem quite so bad when you see that the Mavs are far from alone. And when you consider that three of those losses are in the Houston-Utah series, the stat is more like this:

Excluding the wacky Utah-Houston series, home teams, so far in these playoffs, are 15-1.

Okay, maybe I'm reaching with the second one. :)

Hat tip to Truehoop

In the last week of the season, including the home finale against New Orleans, one of the real nagging concerns I had was with Dirk's ankle. Dirk showed that he can still get it done on the offensive end, but I saw some disturbingly bad defense from Dirk, even in our good games. My fear was that Dirk's ankle would turn him into a severe defensive liability. In fact, I mentioned this in my short Q&A with At The Hive before the series started.

Of course, the Mavs have also played some solid defense with Dirk on the floor during that time, so the question I posed myself was this: Were these moments where the opposing team simply didn't take advantage of Dirk's ankle or were the Mavs really stepping up as a team and working around Dirk's lack of defensive mobility?

Before I answer that question, we should look at Dirk's defense while he's healthy. Dirk isn't nearly as bad on defense as he his reputation makes him out to be, but he's not great either. He doesn't have the athleticism to truly effectively guard other power forwards in straight man-to-man defense or to explosively snuff a drive as a help side defender, although his positioning has improved, and he makes much more of an effort than he did earlier in his career. Another important thing to note about Dirk is his defensive rebounding, where he is one of the best of the league. Defensive rebounds stop possessions, and that's the goal of any defensive effort.

With this in mind, there are two things that stand out: The first is that Dirk can't really afford to lose mobility. He'll simply get abused in man-to-man defense by talented opposing forwards. The second is that where he shines on defense is his rebounding, and if that takes a hit, his effectiveness on defense plummets. The scary thing is that both of these are now in effect with Dirk's ankle injured. As Dirk said after the New Orleans season-ender, he isn't getting much lift on his ankle, and it's hurting his rebounding. And, more ominously, he doesn't see it getting better any time soon.

Back to New Orleans and my initial question: Is New Orleans abusing Dirk's bum ankle and focusing their strategy around this chink in the Mav's defensive armour? Well, it sure looks that way.

Two things make this clear: One is that Dirk Nowitzki has a spectacularly bad plus/minus of -34 in the first two games of the series, by far the worst on the team. The other is that the opposing forwards on the Hornets are the top two in terms of plus/minus for the series, with a Peja Stojakovic at +42 and David West at +41. Don't get me wrong, Chris Paul has been spectacular, but the real key to this series has been that the Hornets forwards have just dominated the Mavs forwards, especially Nowitzki.

Plus/minus is a stat I rarely use because it has serious shortcomings due to different situations (e.g. a good bench player can have a better plus/minus than a star since he's playing against the opposition's second team). However, a lot of those issues are removed when you are playing one team in a playoff series. Benches are shortened, and the quality of the opposition is consistent. In playoff circumstances, plus/minus can tell you a lot.

And Dirk's plus/minus indicates that his defense is hurting the team far worse than his offense is helping.

I'm not sure this is a solveable problem. Team defense can only go so far, and if Dampier has Dirk's back, then Tyson Chandler is left to abuse the paint. If Josh cheats over to help Dirk, then Stojakovic will just nail mid-range jumper after mid-range jumper. The Mavs could conceivably play a lot more zone defense and hope the Hornets shooters go cold. Another alternative is to sit Dirk, but let's be honest--that's just not realistic.

If the team defense can't effectively help Dirk, there may only be one way to address this problem: Employ a large number of different defenses, which individually may have weaknesses, but the weakness would change with each possession. Trap Chris Paul one possession, go matchup zone the next, go straight man the next, constantly switch man coverage at the forward spots--in short, mix up the defenses so completely that each possession provides a new challenge for how to take advantage of the Mavs defense.

The danger in this strategy is that NBA teams generally play a specific defensive scheme for a reason--they are good at it, and it works. Tossing ten schemes at New Orleans means that maybe seven of them aren't that good and have weaknesses. Desperate? Yes, but adding a touch of confusion to the mix and moving the weaknesses around the floor may be better than the alternative: Leaving Dirk alone to get abused by David West and Peja Stojakovic.

Call me a masochist, but I finally worked up enough energy to browse the various stat sites to see if there was anything to be taken from the New Orleans game that hasn't already been discussed a thousand times (there isn't). While looking around, I started to look at some of the big picture league ranking type of articles that I generally skip during the regular season. An odd thing struck my eye: Dirk Nowitzki is everywhere. Quite simply, he is a dominant player in the league.

For example, I took a stop at 82games.com, which I hadn't visited in months. The first thing I noticed was "Clutch Stats" and the sister column "Super Clutch" stats. And there was Dirk, ranked third behind Kobe Bryant and Lebron James in clutch time point production. What about "Super Clutch" production? There's Dirk ranked fourth, with Manu Ginobli sneaking ahead of him.

Okay, here's another column on best performers against good teams. Nowitzki is ranked sixth in the league.   He's ninth against average teams and eighth against poor teams. Is our man Nowitzki bored unless he's challenged? Hrmm.

Let's head on over the knickerblogger.net. Dirk's efficiency puts him at fifth in the league.

And so on.

I guess this is quite obvious in hindsight, but Dirk is often criticized for things he is actually very good at (being "clutch") and he is routinely taken for granted on things that he does as well as anyone in the league (producing on offense). On a night when I was confronted with nothing but bad news in regards to the opening playoff game with the Hornets, it was the kind of jolt I needed.