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Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors Game Preview: Get Well, Steve Nash!

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It's been quite a whirlwind since the Suns' season started a week ago, with four games that have featured a few high points (including promising play from rookie Markieff Morris and a rejuvenated Robin Lopez) but also two ugly blowout losses and one heartbreaker to the Hornets on opening night. It would be nice to take a breather and hit the reset button before moving forward, but this lockout-shortened, abbreviated season won't provide many of those. The Suns (1-3) will play their third game in four days as they face the Golden State Warriors (2-2) in Phoenix Monday afternoon.

The Warriors have endured their own ups and downs, with guard Stephen Curry missing a game after re-injuring his right ankle, his backcourt partner Monta Ellis missing a game due to a death in the family, and impressive wins over the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks sandwiched by a 19 point opening night loss to the Clippers and a drubbing at home to the Philadelphia 76ers (sound familiar?).

Steve Nash continues to be the key to the Suns' fortunes, but he's off to a very slow start after suffering a bruised rib in the season opener. In fact, he's playing about as poorly as he's played in his career through these first four games, and the Suns have little time for him to get healthy and get his game right before digging a deep hole in the talented Western Conference. Make a run for a playoff spot? Only a Steve Nash who's healthy and playing at a high level can make that happen.

Jump it for more on this early season matchup between two teams that are in the same position of trying to improve enough from last season to break into the Western Conference's top eight teams.

Game information:

Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns, US Airways Center, Phoenix, 1:30 PM MST

Last season the Suns swept the Warriors 4-0, with an average score of 108-95. The mediocre Suns handled the Warriors with ease as Warriors' leading scorer Monta Ellis struggled with 41% FG shooting and 19 PPG in the four games. Grant Hill's defense helped to contain Ellis from his season averages of 24 PPG on 45% shooting, and the Suns won each game going away.

The Warriors have a new head coach in former ESPN game analyst Mark Jackson, and are emphasizing defense in the same way the Suns are. In their two wins this season, the Warriors gave up only 91 to the defending Eastern Conference champion Bulls, and 78 to the Knicks.

Hill's defense on Ellis will be a key, assuming Ellis plays, but Nash was also money in those victories, outdueling young grasshopper Curry as he averaged 16 points and 13 assists on 50% FG shooting in truly Nash-ian performances.

We have yet to see a Nash-ian performance this season. Nash is averaging 8 points and 8 assists per game through the first four, and only shooting 31% from the field. He's clearly not right, be that due to the injury or age or needing to find his legs after the lockout. The simple stats are troubling; the advanced stats are alarming.

Win shares per 48 minutes is one of my favorite stats. Like any stat, it isn't a be all, end all but it is a good general rule of thumb. It attempts to quantify positive plays vs. negative on both ends of the floor. It's not comprehensive, but more so than most other measures. This is a very small sample size. Take it all with a grain of salt, but seeing Nash as our lowest performer there (column on far right) is a bit jarring.

1 Sebastian Telfair 26 3 25 30.3 .551 .409 8.3 0.0 4.2 30.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 26.9 131 103 0.2 0.0 0.2 .351
2 Markieff Morris 22 4 68 22.0 .767 .750 6.1 21.8 13.9 11.1 1.6 3.2 16.5 16.5 129 98 0.2 0.1 0.3 .246
3 Hakim Warrick 29 3 81 23.1 .600 .545 5.2 10.5 7.8 10.5 0.0 1.8 4.9 23.6 122 107 0.3 0.0 0.3 .207
4 Robin Lopez 23 4 86 17.5 .594 .520 8.5 14.8 11.6 8.6 0.0 0.8 6.2 17.4 125 106 0.3 0.1 0.3 .191
5 Marcin Gortat 27 4 96 21.8 .577 .563 9.8 18.8 14.2 2.1 2.8 5.3 12.3 19.6 107 96 0.1 0.2 0.3 .167
6 Jared Dudley 26 4 118 14.3 .536 .469 2.7 13.5 8.0 10.2 1.8 0.6 5.2 15.1 114 103 0.2 0.1 0.3 .135
7 Josh Childress 28 4 51 7.7 .375 .375 6.1 8.3 7.2 6.4 2.1 1.4 7.7 11.8 87 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 .018
8 Grant Hill 39 4 102 10.0 .407 .308 1.0 12.5 6.7 10.2 0.5 2.1 4.3 21.0 90 105 -0.1 0.1 0.0 .011
9 Ronnie Price 28 4 71 8.6 .493 .478 1.5 4.5 3.0 20.4 1.5 1.0 19.8 19.8 88 107 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.012
10 Channing Frye 28 4 80 7.9 .263 .226 7.8 34.5 21.0 10.1 1.3 2.7 5.8 19.9 70 94 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.046
11 Shannon Brown 26 4 78 7.6 .420 .406 1.3 12.2 6.7 7.1 2.7 0.9 15.3 23.4 75 101 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.069
12 Steve Nash 37 4 105 7.2 .405 .372 2.0 5.1 3.5 51.0 0.0 0.0 28.2 25.1 80 110 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.121
Provided by View Original Table
Generated 1/1/2012.

Let's strip out a few of the outliers here. Telfair is obviously not close to our best player. He's put up nice numbers in 6 minutes per game of mostly garbage time. Morris, Warrick and Lopez have done well, but are also putting up their numbers in limited minutes. They are generally put in the game in advantageous situations (against backups), helping those numbers. Again, these early statistics are very limited. Still, Nash at the bottom, shooting poorly, committing lots of turnovers, and now it's announced that he's injured? This will be a long season if that continues. Get well, Steve Nash.

For this game:

Starting lineups:
PG Steve Nash vs. Stephen Curry
SG Jared Dudley vs. Monta Ellis
SF Grant Hill vs. Dorell Wright
PF Channing Frye vs. Dominic McGuire
C Marcin Gortat vs. Andris Biedrins

  • Monta Ellis is expected to play after missing Saturday night's game following the death of his grandmother, according to Marcus Thompson of the San Jose Mercury-News.
  • Hakim Warrick is the Suns leading scorer by far early on. After not playing due to coach's decision in the first game, Warrick has averaged 15.7 PPG in the three games since, on 55% FG shooting as he's doing much more than just diving to the basket for dunks; he's showing improved range.
  • The only other Suns player averaging double digit scoring is Marcin Gortat at 10.3 PPG. Gortat is fighting through a broken thumb, but his production is similar to last season.
  • The Warriors have been led so far by Monta Ellis' 21 PPG, and David Lee's 19 points and 8 RPG. They've also received surprising contributions from guards Brandon Rush (obtained from the Pacers when they dealt Lou Amundson) and Ish Smith.
  • Non-basketball fun fact: the bridge featured in the Warriors' logo isn't the famous Golden Gate Bridge; it's the new Bay Bridge, currently under construction. The Warriors play in Oakland, which is connected to San Francisco via the Bay Bridge, and the new bridge will provide more stability in case of a major earthquake, like the 1989 quake that collapsed a portion of this major thoroughfare. BSotS's Bay Area correspondent reporting for duty.

Losing to the Thunder was to be expected, losing to the 76ers is looking slightly less embarrassing but the Suns need to take care of business at home against teams that are at close to the same level. Let's get a win here!

For more on the Warriors, visit our friends at Golden State of Mind.

Update 1/2/12 12:11PM MST: Paul Coro reports that Warriors PF David Lee will miss today's game with an illness.

@paulcoro David Lee (illness) is out for Golden State today. Epke Udoh might be the starting replacement against the today.

Update II 1/2/12 12:27PM MST: Dominic McGuire will get the start for the Warriors.

. Jackson wants a stretch 4 to match up with Frye.

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