In the comments of yesterday's playoff report an exchange with Nate_Sun86 led me to prepare a breakdown of all scenarios where the Suns went 2-1 over their next 3 and also 1-2 over their next 3. One of the assumptions I made in those scenarios was that Dallas would defeat San Antonio last night. So I threw it on the ground. Because I'm an adult and not a part of your system I had almost a fully flushed out word document with the new scenarios which took into account the Dallas loss - then Golden State lost to the Nuggets.
That loss brought all sorts of other tiebreaker scenarios to the forefront and broke my brain entirely. But since I'm nice - here's roughly where we are tiebreaker wise:
- Suns/Mavericks - head to head even at 1-1, winner of Saturday's game wins the tiebreaker.
- Suns/Grizzlies - Grizzlies are up 3-0 on head to head and have already won the tiebreaker.
- Grizzlies/Mavericks - Mavericks are up 3-0 head to head and have already won the tiebreaker.
- Suns/Warriors - head to head is even at 2-2 so we move to the next tiebreaker for teams in the same division - division record, which is clinched by GSW already (10-5 to 7-8).
- Suns/Mavs/Grizz - the tiebreaker is record in games among the three teams, Dallas is 4-1, Memphis is 3-3, and Phoenix is 1-4. Each team has 2 to play. The only way this goes well for the Suns is if Memphis loses their last 2 and the Suns win their last 2 but if that happens there won't be a 3 way tie anyway.
- Suns/Grizz/Warriors - same three way tiebreaker. Memphis is 5-2 (2-2 against GSW, 3-0 against Phoenix), Golden State is 4-4 (2-2 against Phoenix/Memphis), and Phoenix is 2-5 (0-3 against Memphis, 2-2 against GSW). Suns would be dead here.
- Suns/Mavs/Warriors - same three way tiebreaker. Golden State is 5-3 (2-2 against Phoenix, 3-1 against Dallas), Phoenix is 3-3 (2-2 against Golden State, 1-1 against Dallas), and Dallas is 2-4 (1-1 against Phoenix, 1-3 against Golden State). In the highly unlikely (and potentially impossible event the Suns lose to Dallas and tie these teams, they're done.
If any of that is wrong feel free to correct me - I'm sitting in a staff meeting at the moment.
Thursday April 10th Key Western Conference Results:
San Antonio Spurs 109 Dallas Mavericks 100 (Recap) - Tony Parker didn't play for the Spurs but it didn't matter. Hell Patty Mills took 25 shots and only scored 26 points and it still didn't matter (although it helped he shot 6/11 from three). The Spurs are really good at winning games. Monta Ellis led the Mavericks with 24 points and you're not reading this part so I'm just going to go into a shopping list - I need cereal and milk. I like cereals with cartoon mascots on the box.
Denver Nuggets 100 Golden State Warriors 99 (Recap) - I'll admit I barely even bothered to watch this game because I thought the Full Squad would take care of business. The Nuggets trailed this game by as many as 12 in the 3rd quarter but the heavenly ascension of Timofey Mosgov (23 points and 29 - yes 29 - rebounds) allowed them to keep it close. It looked like Golden State was going to survive when Steph Curry hit a floater with 5 seconds left but Denver got the ball into Kenneth Faried who hit a shot in the lane to take the game. Steph Curry led Golden State with 24 points and Klay Thompson added 21.
Golden State is still the favorite to finish with the 6 seed in the West but they finish with 3 of their last 4 games on the road (@Lakers, @Blazers, v. Minnesota, @Denver). Mark Jackson - the door is ajar.
Current Western Conference Standings:
|2. Oklahoma City
|3. LA Clippers
|4. Houston||52||26||.667||8.5||6-4||LOST 1|
|6. Golden State
Friday April 11th Western Conference Games of Significance:
Suns @ Spurs - At this point of the morning we don't really even know who's going to play for either team. Coro reported that Dragic is questionable with an ankle injury (roughly his 10 millionth) while other reports suggest both Tony Parker and Tim Duncan are going to sit out tonight. Parker has sat the last two games while Duncan suffered a bit of a knee scare in the 1st half last night but still played 39 minutes. I don't think there's any shame in saying we have no clue what's going to happen tonight, so I'll say Spurs by 10.
76ers @ Grizzlies - I hear a lot of you say things like "anything can happen any night in the NBA" and "they're all NBA players" - but when your team has won 2 games since February started I don't think any of that applies. The Sixers are bad and they should feel bad. Memphis will win this game by 73. Need a morning laugh? Go check out the Philly roster.
Warriors @ Lakers - Won't some other playoff contender sleepwalk through a game with a bad Lakers team and take a horrible loss? If so I'd really appreciate it. The odds are against Golden State suffering a second consecutive bad loss but at least the Lakers are sort of an NBA team - unlike Philly.