Hi all dear friends from BSOTS
I start this thread mainly to conduct a rough drill to have a feel of how the 2016/17 free agents market will behave this summer.
Everyone knows the background: Salary Cap balloon to approx. $92m, all teams will be cash rich and enjoy a huge increase in cap space, Free Agents will enjoy the benefits of Seller market, the top FA will have the luxury of picking the team that fit his need best, at the same time enjoy a healthy dose of pay rise.
So typically what are the criteria that a player will consider when they pick a team when >90% of the teams can offer you similar amount of money? The questions they will ask are probably: Are you a contender? Team fit? Location? Team management? Coaching? Ownership? Market Size? (Unfortunately, Suns may not score well in most of these categories)
So, from the above, we can roughly predict how the Free Agents 2016/17 market will behave, the top free agents pick the best team he preferred, and the 2nd best free agents have to pick from the remainders, taking into consideration of cap space changes after the first pick.
Thus, the situation will look like a reverse mock draft, the best player will pick first, and the best preferred team will get their cap space taken up first.
This is the version 1.0 of my scratch book, I know I may make some mistakes here and there, feel free to point out my errors but I just want to demonstrate how the real situation could behave:
Round 1- top 30 FAs (subjective opinion)
$million | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2016/17 | FA new | 2016/17 | |||
Present | Career | Salary | Projected | Team Cap | Salary | Team Cap | ||
Team | Earnings | Cap Hit | New Team | Space (B4) | Projected | Space after | ||
1 | Kevin Durant | OKC | 108.7 | 20.16 | OKC | 25m | 25m | 0 |
2 | Lebron James | CLE | 172.8 | 22.97 | CLE | 14m | 30m | 0 |
3 | Al Horford | ATL | 77.5 | 12.00 | GSW | 16m | 16m | 0 |
4 | Dwight Howard | HOU | 167.1 | 22.36 | IND | 33m | 20m | 13m |
5 | Rajon Rondo | SAC | 70.3 | 9.50 | IND | 13m | 13m | 0 |
6 | Hassan Whiteside | MIA | 3.3 | 0.98 | MIA | 40m | 21m | 19m |
7 | DeMar DeRozan | TOR | 39.8 | 9.50 | TOR | 35m | 25m | 10m |
8 | Dirk Nowitzki | DAL | 220.4 | 8.33 | DAL | 59m | 10m | 49m |
9 | Mike Conley | MEM | 56.2 | 9.68 | DAL | 49m | 25m | 24m |
10 | Joakim Noah | CHI | 70.0 | 13.40 | DAL | 24m | 24m | 0 |
11 | Chandler Parson | DAL | 32.7 | 15.36 | POR | 43m | 21m | 22m |
12 | Pau Gasol | CHI | 171.2 | 7.45 | POR | 22m | 20m | 2m |
13 | Tim Duncan | SAS | 240.0 | 5.25 | SAS | 18m | 5m | 13m |
14 | Nicolas Batum | CHA | 51.7 | 13.13 | CHA | 43m | 25m | 18m |
15 | Dwyane Wade | MIA | 156.3 | 20.00 | MIA | 19m | 19m | 0 |
16 | Harrison Barnes | GSW | 12.6 | 3.87 | LAL | 66m | 21m | 45m |
17 | Luol Deng | MIA | 101.5 | 10.15 | HOU | 44m | 20m | 24m |
18 | Ryan Anderson | NOP | 40.2 | 8.50 | NYK | 33m | 20m | 13m |
19 | Bismack Biyombo | TOR | 15.5 | 2.81 | HOU | 24m | 20m | 4m |
20 | Al Jefferson | CHA | 112.7 | 13.50 | CHA | 18m | 12m | 6m |
21 | Joe Johnson | MIA | 198.6 | 0.26 | GSW | 0 | 1.6m | 0 |
22 | Manu Ginobli | SAS | 111.0 | 2.81 | SAS | 13m | 3m | 10m |
23 | Evan Turner | BOS | 28.2 | 3.42 | ||||
24 | Brandon Jennings | ORL | 34.1 | 8.34 | ||||
25 | Jeremy Lin | CHA | 28.5 | 2.14 | ||||
26 | Mirza Teletovic | PHX | 15.20 | 5.50 | ||||
27 | Zaza Pachulia | DAL | 51.6 | 5.20 | ||||
28 | Jamal Crawford | LAC | 90.8 | 5.68 | ||||
29 | Jeff Green | LAC | 50.7 | 9.20 | ||||
30 | Marvin Williams | CHA | 69.7 | 7.00 |
It's OK if you don't agree with the guesses I made, we won't know what will happen in a few months time, just to share some of my thought processes:
1) I play safe and assume that Kevin Durant and LeBron James will stay put, which is quite likely if you look at their current situation.
2) Following that, I figure playing safe will be too boring so I predict that Al Horford will be willing to sacrifice a little on the monetary terms to join GSW. He is the perfect small ball center for GSW, smart, skilled and efficient. Harrison Barnes has to go but Iguodala can pick up the starting SF duties. Some veterans like Joe Johnson could be willing to join a contender at veteran min as the backup SF btw.
3) Even more bold prediction after that. Dwight Howard and Rajan Rondo, who are both thirsty to prove themselves, will also sacrifice a little on the monetary terms and join force with Paul George, Monta Ellis and Myles Turner at Indiana Pacers. That will make a very, very solid starting five that will give LeBron & Company more than a handful of challenge.
4) Play Safe again after that, DeRozan, Hassan Whiteside, and Dirk all decided to stay with their current team.
5) We know Mark Cuban will not pull back punches to bring his team back to relevance given the opportunity, so I think he will do all he can to bring Mike Conley and Joakim Noah to Dallas to support Dirk, overpaying those two in the process.
6) Chandler Parson will opt out and pick a team that he will fit well, and Portland is a decent choice as they can march into playoff with just Lillard and McCollum. POR need a replacement for Aldridge at PF, and Pau Gasol could have some interest if they are willing to put a big contract on his table.
7) Tim Duncan and Manu will either consider retiring or resign with SAS. full stop.
8) Charlotte made it clear that their top priority is to resign Batum, and to do it they have to offer him max. If they don't. there are still more than 20 teams that can place that contract on Batum's table, so I guess they won't take the risk. on the other hand, Al Jefferson seems to be comfortable staying put, looking at his career earnings, I guess he won't mind to sign a contract slightly above the mid level to stay with Hornets, while leaving them a little of cap space left to pursue Jeremy Lin. But unfortunately, I don't think their remaining cap space will be sufficient for them to keep Lin.
9) Wade decide to stay at Heats and want all the remaining cap after retaining Whiteside, bye bye Luol Deng.
10) Lakers become desparate after failing to land any of the top FAs, and they decide to give a max contract to Harrison Barnes and landed him. I doubt McD and Sarver will match that offer.
11) Houston need to find someone to compensate the lost of Dwight Howard, and they still have a star player in Harden, so if the price is right, I think Luol Deng and Bismack Biyombo could be willing to move to the west.
12) New York Knicks become desparate at this point as well, I don't know how much they like Ryan Anderson but a stretch four will be suitable for Honacek style and fit Melo's ISO need to clear the lane. So they decide to place a 20m+ offer on his table.
I stopped my mock after this point, as I find it hard to simulate who will go to which team after here. So, realistically, I think Phoenix chances to obtain a free agent will start from this point onwards, towards the end of round 1, which quite fairly represent our status now. But I will like to remind all that even if Suns is willing to match the money offered by other teams to the remaining free agents, they will face stiff competition as our management and owner's reputation is not exactly favorable in comparison. Also taking into consideration that teams like Lakers, Celtics and Knicks still has a lot of cap space at this point, and so does all teams that still haven't come into picture in the above table, we should be prepared for the likelihood that we may not land a single free agent among the top 30, unless we are willing to grossly overpay one in the later part of the board.
Reference link if you wish to check out the shocking amount of cap space available to all teams coming summer:
http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/241166/The-Maximum-Available-2016-Cap-Space-For-All-30-NBA-Teams-Version-20
Some mentioned that we can get Mirza to sign for 10m, or Jeremy Lin can be had for a few millions. But looking at the cap space left and the quality of FAs left at this stage, I think that will be really, really tough.
What is your view? Am I too pessismistic about our chances? Do you still think we can sign Nic Batum, Harrison Barnes, Ryan Anderson or Jeremy Lin at a bargain rate?