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Sun's Cap Space

Hey help me out here. I'm trying to write an article on the Sun's off-season, but it's tied to their cap space. I've done some research on the Sun's cap but I'm not positive that I'm coming up with a correct estimate. Here's what I've come up with (all contract numbers courtesy of sportrac.com):

We know that the guys listed below are all under contract. Tyler Johnson is in the last year of his contract. Spalding & Freddette have unguaranteed contracts.

Player Age Pos Signed Cap Figure
Devin Booker 22 SG Bird $27,250,000
Tyler Johnson 26 SG Cap Space $19,245,370
T.J. Warren 26 SF Bird $10,810,000
Deandre Ayton 21 C Rookie $9,562,920
Josh Jackson 22 SF Rookie $7,059,480
Mikal Bridges 23 SF Rookie $4,161,000
De'Anthony Melton 21 PG Cap Space $1,416,852
Élie Okobo 21 PG Cap Space $1,416,852
Ray Spalding 22 PF Unguaranteed $1,416,852
Jimmer Freddette 22 PF Unguaranteed $1,416,852

Our free agents include these guys with the following cap holds:

Player Age Pos Signed Cap Hold
Kelly Oubre Jr. (RFA) 23 SF Restricted Bird $9,625,890
Troy Daniels (UFA) 28 SG Bird $6,191,243
Richaun Holmes (RFA) 25 PF Bird $1,618,520
Jamal Crawford (UFA) 39 SG Non-Bird $1,618,486
Dragan Bender (UFA) 20 PF Team declined option -

Oubre & Holmes are restricted free agents (RFAs). While Daniels, Crawford & Bender are unrestricted (UFAs). The team has already declined Bender's option. In researching this, I found that teams are assigned a cap hold even for their unrestricted free agents until they release them. So to free up cap space a team needs to release UFAs that they don't intend to keep.

And unless they are traded, we know that the Suns have 2 picks coming up in this summer's draft. They will need to reserve money for those slots. I made the assumption that we will get the 2nd and 32nd picks (our current draft slot). I used last year's 1st & 31st salaries to estimate their cap hit --

Player Age Pos Signed Cap Figure
2019 2nd Pick - - Rookie $8,165,160
2019 32nd Pick - - Rookie $1,238,464

Finally, we know that next years salary cap has been set at $109 Million.

If we put all this together, we get the following for our projected cap space knowing that we are shedding Spalding, Freddette, Daniels, Crawford & Bender:

Player Age Pos Signed Cap Figure
Devin Booker 22 SG Bird $27,250,000
Tyler Johnson 26 SG Cap Space $19,245,370
T.J. Warren 26 SF Bird $10,810,000
Deandre Ayton 21 C Rookie $9,562,920
Josh Jackson 22 SF Rookie $7,059,480
Mikal Bridges 23 SF Rookie $4,161,000
De'Anthony Melton 21 PG Cap Space $1,416,852
Élie Okobo 21 PG Cap Space $1,416,852
Total Signed $80,922,474
Player Age Pos Signed Cap Figure
Ray Spalding 22 PF Unguaranteed $1,416,852
Jimmer Freddette 22 PF Unguaranteed $1,416,852
Total Non-guaranteed $2,833,704
Player Age Pos Signed Cap Hold
Kelly Oubre Jr. (RFA) 23 SF Restricted Bird $9,625,890
Troy Daniels (UFA) 28 SG Bird $6,191,243
Richaun Holmes (RFA) 25 PF Bird $1,618,520
Jamal Crawford (UFA) 39 SG Non-Bird $1,618,486
Dragan Bender (UFA) 20 PF Team declined option -
Total Free Agents $19,054,139
Player Age Pos Signed Cap Figure
2019 2nd Pick - - Rookie $8,165,160
2019 32nd Pick - - Rookie $1,238,464
Total Rookies $9,403,624
Total Contracts $112,213,941
Total to shed $10,643,433
Total After Shedding Contracts $101,570,508
2019 Salary Cap $109,000,000
Total After Releasing Players -$101,570,508
Total Estimated Cap Space $7,429,492

About $7.5 million.

Geez. Is that right? If that's right, that blows.

Perhaps we don't have to sign our rookies until after free agency. I'm guessing that's probably true, since I didn't see any articles on Ayton signing his contract until August of last year. Which would be after free agency. In which case, we would really have about $16.8 million in cap space. Which is not great, but it is way better than 7.5.

If I understand it correctly, we can waive and stretch any of our players. Tyler Johnson seems the most likely candidate. If we waived Johnson, we would free up approximately $13 million (his contract would be stretched over 3 years). Bringing our possible cap space close to $30 million. Which should be enough to bring a near all-star level player. I'm guessing we won't waive him, but instead we'll trade Tyler and assets for a high impact point guard.

A note on all of this -- I'm guessing we will probably use up all of our cap space during this year's free agency trying to get a couple of above average NBA level players. After we land those players, we'll go over the cap to resign Oubre & Holmes. Which will leave us capped out for next year. Hurray!

So check my math for me, is it $7.5 million or $16.8 million?

And more important, what free agent(s) would you go after with either amount?