FanPost

Our improved spacing might be a lot better in theory than in practice

A lot has been made of our acquisition of shooters this past off-season. However, the theory of it seems a lot better than what the numbers from last season actually suggest.

Below shows every player on the roster that was in the league last season, and their points per shot (PPS) relative to league average (500+ mins)

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Not a lot of green is there. The big thing to focus on here is the latter 2 zones which essentially identify our ability, or lack of, to hit open shots.

In terms of wide open shots (6+ feet), Booker unsurprisingly came in positively, whilst Baynes 'passed'. Outside of that however, its pretty bleak with 4 key rotation players in Mikal, Rubio, Kelly and Saric, all coming in well below league average. It’s a similar story when we look at open shots (4-6 Feet), especially from 3. Mikal, Dario and Kelly were the only guys that surpassed league average from range, with the same trio + Ayton/Diallo the only guys to reach league average overall.

Our inability to make shots is again shown when you look at where our roster ranked in spot-up situations (min 20 possessions, shown as a percentile):

  • Baynes - 95th (only 36 possessions)
  • Carter - 92nd (only 55 possessions)
  • Bridges - 61st
  • Johnson - 58th
  • Kaminsky - 52nd
  • Oubre - 48th
  • Booker - 34th
  • Rubio - 25th
  • Saric - 24th
  • Okobo - 12th
  • Diallo - 5th
  • Ayton - 2nd

Additionally, isolation, whilst tending to be an incredibly inefficient part of the game, is still a needed skill, and bail out guys are important. Saying its going to be a struggle is an understatement. Outside of Booker and Kelly, nobody really seems to be able to get their own shot off.

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This is further affirmed by actual isolation numbers, where only 5 guys on the whole roster even recorded 20+ iso possessions last season, 2 of them (Jevon and Okobo) shaping to play very little. Of the 3 remaining guys you get Kelly (78th percentile), Booker (65th) and Ayton (34th). Not ideal to say the least.

In terms of the returning players, its certainly possible that much of this can be attributed to our situation at PG last season. When analysing Rubio’s impact on the Jazz last season I looked at Utah’s core 6 (1,500+ minutes: Mitchell, Gobert, Ingles, Crowder, Favors and O’Neale), and how they shot with and without Rubio.

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Whilst his net team impact is reduced given his own poor shooting, his effect on others is clear and well documented.

The eye test can tell us that both Mikal (33.5% from 3) and Booker (32.6% from 3) are better shooters than what their numbers from last season suggest, whilst the addition of Rubio ‘should’ help everyone on the team. This is however, a hypothetical, and purely based off recent results, we legitimately could still have issues offensively despite all our acquisitions.

Lastly, just so people don’t think I forgot about them, Ty and Cam, whilst both being very good shooters, don’t shape to play much of a role this season. How many guard minutes are left for Ty once you factor in Rubio, Johnson, Booker and pinch hit minutes from Mikal? How many wing/small ball 4 minutes are left for Cam once you factor in Mikal, Kelly, Dario and Frank? Minutes will be hard to come by, such that its unlikely either make a huge difference.