FanPost

Is Obi Toppin Right For Us?

One of college basketball’s biggest risers this season has been 6’9 Dayton forward Obi Toppin, a prospect that will almost certainly come under heavy consideration from James Jones come draft night. At 22, and with plenty of college ball behind him, there’s a lot to like, but delving deeper I do wonder how much of that college dominance will translate into the NBA.

Per 75: 28 points, 10.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.4 steals on 69/39/70 shooting splits

Defensive Analysis

Obi struggles with changes in direction, the product of stiff hips, generally poor stance, and slow, heavy feet. This lack of agility hinders his effectiveness on the perimeter against crafty or athletic players and will only be exposed more in the league.

He also lacks the awareness and reaction time (although this is somewhat made up for by his quick leaping ability) to be a good team defender. Watch how slow he is to react here:

Combine this with his poor footwork and you get PnR sequences like this: Hops in with narrow feet, gets caught completely out of position, is slow to recover, ending in an open corner 3.


Outside of rare situations where the opposition goes small ball (Houston esk) Obi will not be able to play the 5. Despite spending considerably time there in college, it just isn’t sustainable in the league. His skinny legs and strong upper body give him a high centre of gravity that, along with technique and effort flaws, hurts him against bigger guys.


A lot of this was made clear in his matchup against Kansas and Udoka Azubuike, who absolutely man-handled him in November, dropping 29 points.


Ultimately, he lacks the physicality to guard 5s regularly, and the speed/agility to match up on wings/guards, restricting him to a fairly limited 1 position defender at the 4.

Offensive Analysis

A combination of excellent touch, body control and his forceful nature (will always dunk when possible), as well as his encouraging shot (32/83 @ 39% from 3 + a solid FT% on volume) suggests he has all the makings of being one of the better PnR players in the league.


Additionally, he is comfortable attacking closeouts, but he is basically just a straight-line driver, in part due to his average handle.

He won’t be a consistent off the dribble shooter, and will mainly be restricted to catch and shoots or 1 dribble jumpers, but he has shown flashes, including this beauty.


Nice shot IQ - very few mid-range shots, the child of D’Antoni/Morey basically - almost everything is at the rim or from 3.


Solid cutter, both from the dunker spot and from the perimeter too. Will have incredible vertical gravity and catch everything you throw up to him - making him a real threat in transition as well as a walking highlight.


An underrated part of his game involves his passing. His 14.5 AST% doesn’t stand out, however thats more a product of him being so good at scoring himself and getting what he wants, rather than being limited in that department. When he does pass it’s on the money, comfortable out of the post, making skip passes and in transition, leading to it being a genuine value added skill he brings to the table. Had 2 really nice passes against Davidson about a month ago.

Verdict

Toppin is a phenomenal college player, backed up by recently being named AP player of the year (although 6 of the last 7 winners before him include Jalen Brunson, Frank Mason III, Denzel Valentine, Frank Kaminsky, Doug McDermott and Trey Burke), and he will be a productive, starter level player in the NBA. I just question how much value he will really bring as a scoring 4 given the limitations he has defensively and how that will restrict the team he is on, especially here in Phoenix.

Defensively, he makes us less versatile given he isn't capable of switching, as well as being a straight negative on that end. We are very much at the point with Booker where we can’t afford to have anyone else on the floor with him that isn’t at least average defensively, something that Toppin probably doesn’t get to. That said, in line-ups without Booker, his defensive shortcomings won't be much of an issue, especially with guys like Mikal on the perimeter.

Offensively, I don’t love the fit next to Ayton - there will be a fair bit of overlap. He will be a plus spacer, however most of his value on that end will come through being a good pick and roll player, as well as operating out of the post, two things that can’t be fully utilised with Ayton next to him. With how well Oubre performed at the 4 this season, and the trend within the NBA towards wings at the 4, it makes you wonder how much we need him.

His best role here might legitimately be as a scoring 6th man, spending considerable time with Rubio and a floor spacing C like Baynes. However, when drafting in the lottery, and given our need to find someone who can either replace Rubio long term or play an ancillary role in point Book line-ups if we go down that route, the priority has to be targeting potential starters and guys that can close games.

Ultimately, whilst he sits 13th on my big board, meaning selecting him at 10 would by no means be a reach, and despite most Suns fans generally being incredibly high on his fit here in Phoenix, I am not. PASS