:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72146019/1392662730.0.jpg)
After a season in which the Phoenix Suns suffered through an incredible number of injuries, leading the NBA in most impactful injuries by a wide margin, they are about to clinch the 4th seed in the Western Conference Playoffs and have home court advantage in the first round that begins in less than two weeks.
All they need is one more win. Hello Spurs.
The Suns have three fewer losses than anyone behind them in the West standings with only four games to play. On Tuesday, they will play the heavily tanking Spurs in Phoenix with a very likely chance to get a 6th straight win and a 44-35 record with three to play. If the Suns win just one more game, they could finish no worse than tied with the teams behind them, while holding the tiebreak advantage in just about every case.
That’s why PlayoffStatus.com gives the Suns a 97% chance to finish with the 4th seed when the regular season is over. But who will be the Suns opponent on April 15th?
Let’s break it down.
First, the tiebreaker rules, in order (as applicable to the two teams in question):
- Division leader over team not leading division (not in play; 3rd seeded Kings won Pacific division)
- Head-to-head record.
- Higher winning percentage within division if teams share a division (Suns, Lakers, Clippers, Kings all in same Pacific division)
- Higher winning percentage in conference games.
- Higher winning percentage vs. playoff teams in own conference.
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24558294/Screen_Shot_2023_04_03_at_1.33.17_PM.png)
Golden State Warriors?
41-38 record, 3 to play, Suns have tiebreaker with 3-1 season series win
Can the Warriors take 4th from the Suns? 1% chance, per PlayoffStatus.com. It’s possible the Warriors win all three of their remaining games, finishing 44-38, while the Suns lose all four of theirs, finishing 43-39. In that case, the Suns would drop out of 4th.
If the two teams somehow finish tied in overall standings, the Suns would win the 4th (higher) seed anyway. The Suns have already clinched any tiebreak against the Warriors by winning three of the four head-to-head matchups this season. The three wins featured the Warriors healthy big four of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, not to mention Jordan Poole off the bench. The Suns have since added Kevin Durant while keeping their top three performers in the series.
The only Warriors win against Phoenix this year came without Wiggins as part of his lengthy hiatus from the team. News just came out today that 2022 All-Star Andrew Wiggins is returning to the team soon, after missing the last 22 games with an undisclosed personal/family issue. The Warriors were 12-10 without Wiggins during these pivotal 22 games, and overall the Warriors are 22-20 without him and 19-18 with him this season. Yet, he is their best perimeter defender and was arguably their second-best player in the 2022 championship run. Add in the recent re-add of Gary Payton II, and those are big additions to their lineup come playoff time.
Can the Warriors get 5th, and face the Suns in round one? Very unlikely. They’d have to have a great week while all the others have bad ones. PlayoffStatus.com gives them only a 14% chance of finishing as high as 5th. The Warriors have the same number of losses as the Clippers, Pelicans and Lakers and don’t have the tiebreak advantage against any of them.
- Warriors vs. Clippers: tied head-to-head, but Clippers get tiebreak with better division and conference record
- Warriors vs. Lakers: Lakers get tiebreak by winning head-to-head season series 3-1
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: tied head-to-head, but Pels get tiebreak with better conference record
So the Warriors, with only three games left, have to finish with the best record among these four teams to take the 5th seed.
How do the Suns feel about that? Phew. Because the best of the Warriors would be a TOUGH matchup for the Suns, no matter how bad they are on the road. All they need is one road win to take any series.
Los Angeles Lakers?
40-38 record, 4 to play, Suns have tiebreaker with better division record
Can the Lakers take 4th from the Suns? <1% chance, per PlayoffStatus.com. It’s possible the Lakers win all four of their remaining games, finishing 44-38, while the Suns lose all four of theirs, finishing 43-39. In that case, the Suns would drop out of 4th.
If these teams finish tied in overall standings, the Suns would still get the 4th (higher) seed. They lead the season series with the Lakers 2-1, with one more matchup this week. But this final game does not matter in terms of playoff seeding tiebreaker. If the Suns don’t win the head-to-head tiebreak, they win on division record (and on Conference record too).
Can the Lakers get 5th seed, and face the Suns in round one? Maybe. They could outright win more games than the other three, but they’d also win the tiebreak against two of the three if the finish tied.
- Lakers vs. Warriors: Lakers get tiebreak by winning head-to-head season series 3-1
- Lakers vs. Clippers: Lakers lose tiebreak by already going 0-3 against the Clippers this year
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: Lakers get tiebreak by going 3-1 against the Pelicans this year
Who knows what’s going to happen. According to PlayoffStatus.com the Lakers have a 43% chance of getting the 5th or 6th seed this week. They’ve got the 2nd best chance to get the 5th seed, tied with the Pelicans at 21%. And that’s before considering any teams sitting their stars because their seeding is locked up (like the Suns with the 4th seed, by Friday).
Their matchup AT the Clippers this week will be key to who gets the 5th seed. It’s a road game, so the Lakers are the underdog.
Would the Suns want to face the Lakers? Hmmm. On one hand, why not? This Lakers team looks structurally worse than the defending champs the Suns beat in 2021. And the Suns won the first two meetings this year with the Lakers before they shook up the team at the deadline. But on the other hand, the Lakers brand of basketball is a bad matchup for the Suns. They are really good at what the Suns are really bad at — getting to the free throw line, while not allowing many to the opponent. The Lakers would be like facing the Pelicans a year ago, except with better top end talent in LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Suns-Lakers first round matchup? There’s an okay chance actually. Pretty much, the Lakers just need to win the Wednesday matchup against the Clips and a couple other games this week, and the Clips are still without Paul George.
Can Russell Westbrook live up to his life-sucking reputation from the Laker locker room? A winning game from him on Wednesday would be a true vampire move to bury his Lakers tenure properly.
Speaking of the Clippers...
Los Angeles Clippers?
41-38 record, 3 to play, Suns have tiebreaker with better division and conference record
Can the Clippers take 4th from the Suns? 1% chance, per PlayoffStatus.com. It’s possible the Clippers win all three of their remaining games, finishing 44-38, while the Suns lose all four of theirs, finishing 43-39. In that case, the Suns would drop out of 4th.
If these teams finish tied in overall standings, the Suns would still get the 4th (higher) seed. They lead the season series with the Lakers 2-1, with one more matchup this week. But this final game does not matter in terms of playoff seeding tiebreaker. If the Suns don’t win the head-to-head tiebreak, they win on division record (and on Conference record too).
Can the Clippers get 5th seed, and face the Suns in round one? Probably. The Clippers are the Suns most likely opponent (42% chance per PlayoffStatus.com) in round one that starts on April 15th.
They already have one more win than the Lakers (and one less game to play), and have the tiebreakers on the other teams.
- Clippers vs. Warriors: tied head-to-head, but Clippers get tiebreak with better division and conference record
- Clippers vs. Lakers: Clippers get tiebreak because they already lead the season series 3-0
- Clippers vs. Pelicans: Clippers lost the season-series 3-0, so they lose tiebreak to the Pelicans
The Clippers can most likely secure the 5th seed with a win on Wednesday night against the Lakers. If they lose to the Lakers, then they just need probably one other win (vs. Portland, vs. locked-in Suns) to secure the 5th seed over their competition.
Do the Suns want to play the Clippers in round one? Of the available options, I’d guess this Clippers team is the most beatable competition since Paul George is out injured with no clear timetable for return. Let’s see how the rest of this week shakes out.
Time for the last possible Suns opponent...
New Orleans Pelicans?
40-38 record, 4 to play, Suns have tiebreaker with better division and conference record
Can the Pelicans take 4th from the Suns? 1% chance, per PlayoffStatus.com. It’s possible the Pelicans win all four of their remaining games, finishing 44-38, while the Suns lose all four of theirs, finishing 43-39. In that case, the Suns would drop out of 4th.
If these teams finish tied in overall standings, the Suns would most likely finish with the higher seed. They are tied in head-to-head and nearly tied in conference record. Depends on how each team finishes the season to reach that tied record.
Can the Pelicans get 5th seed, and face the Suns in round one? Maybe. They could outright win more games than the other three, but they’d also win the tiebreak against two of the three if they finish tied.
- Pelicans vs. Lakers: Pelicans lose the tiebreaker by losing the season series 3-1
- Pelicans vs. Clippers: Pelicans get the tiebreaker by winning season series 3-0
- Pelicans vs. Warriors: tied head-to-head, but Pels get tiebreak with better conference record
The Pelicans still don’t have Zion Williamson back, though he’s supposed to be getting closer. We’ll see. Without him they went through a terrible stretch, but now are on a roll much like they were a year ago and could finish higher this time with a lot of the same cast as the team that pushed the Suns to the brink in the first round a year ago.
Imagine a redo, except this time the Suns have Kevin Durant and, hopefully, a healthy Devin Booker. Booker was only healthy for the first 1.5 games of that series.
What if the Suns lose all four remaining games and those other teams win out? Could the Suns drop all the way to 8th? No, especially because there has to be a loser in the Lakers-Clippers faceoff on Wednesday.
Still, there’s a non-zero chance the Suns drop to 7th if they lose out. They need to keep all their guys in the rotation until that 97% chance for the 4th seed increases to 100%.
Once the Suns solidify the 4th seed, the Suns can do some strategic resting. Until then, it’s full steam ahead.
Loading comments...