Bright Side Of The Sun - Phoenix Suns offseason talk has come true with new teamDedicated to Phoenix Suns Basketball since 2006https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47819/bs-fv.png2013-11-30T07:40:04-07:00http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/rss/stream/49238992013-11-30T07:40:04-07:002013-11-30T07:40:04-07:00Suns scoring big while defense dips
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<figcaption>Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>After last night's win against Utah, the 9-7 Phoenix Suns now boast a better offense (8th in the NBA) than defense (12th) for the first time this season. And coach Hornacek's goal of 103 points per game may yet come true - the Suns have scored 105.1 over the last 7 games.</p> <p>It took nearly a month, but a tried and true 45-year franchise formula has materialized again - for the first time this season, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/">Phoenix Suns</a> offense looks better than it's defense.</p>
<p>In what's turning out to be a <a target="_blank" href="http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/11/25/5140296/phoenix-suns-offseason-talk-has-come-true-with-new-team-sooner-than">continuing series on the Suns' offense and defense</a>, today we focus on a recent trend that may continue all season long.</p>
<p>Both the new GM Ryan McDonough and coach Jeff Hornacek said all summer that they wanted the Suns to return to the franchise's roots of fast-paced, exciting offensive basketball with enough stops to fuel the onslaught.</p>
<p>Due to a new scheme and nagging injuries to top point guard starters, the Suns stumbled out of the gate on the offensive end this season with middle-of-the-pack results. A strong defense, coupled with opportunistic fast breaks (league leading 20+ point per game) helped the Suns remain respectable, but the half-court offense struggled mightily to produce points.</p>
<p>What fueled the team was a scrappy defense that defended the three-point line and rim with <strike>aplomb</strike> aplum (pun intended, thankyouverymuch) that ranked in the league's top 5 for the first several games en route to a 5-2 start.</p>
<p>For a while there, that looked like the Suns' formula for success this season: a defense that propped up the offense. Not exactly what the coach and GM ordered, but it was working.</p>
<p>But when <span>Eric Bledsoe</span> went down with a shin bruise and <span>Goran Dragic</span> took over the offense full time, the tide began to turn.</p>
<p>NBA.com/stats has the details:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/3653847/Screen_Shot_2013-11-30_at_7.45.57_AM.png" target="_blank"><img alt="Screen_shot_2013-11-30_at_7" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/assets/3653847/Screen_Shot_2013-11-30_at_7.45.57_AM_medium.png"></a> <br id="1385822786695"></p>
<p>Most evident in the last two games, against the league's 20th (Portland) and 29th (Utah) ranked defenses, the half-court offense is starting to hum. They still get the fast breaks, but now can score in any situation.</p>
<p>It's the defense that's taking a step back. During the last five games, in which the Suns have won three of four on the road and their only home game, the Suns have given up a lot of points. They're just hidden by the improved offense and wider winning margins.</p>
<p>You can, and should, argue sample size. Four of those five games were on the road, and teams always have better offense on their home court. Yet Charlotte, Orlando and Utah - the three road wins - had three of the league's worst offenses, while Portland and Miami boast two of the best.</p>
<p>Sample size? Sure.</p>
<p>But still, the "eyeball" evidence was there last night against Utah. The Suns played hard, but their defense was less effective than it has been earlier in the season. The Suns still haven't given up a 50% game this season to the opponent, but Utah shot 48% last night, and Miami shot 49% earlier this week.</p>
<p>At the same time, the offense - <a target="_blank" href="http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/11/29/5156862/phoenix-suns-are-hoisting-threes-at-historic-rates-taking-what-the">one of the most efficient schemes in the league</a> - is clicking on all cylinders and will only get more effective with Bledsoe back in the lineup. Point guard Goran Dragic is averaging 20 and 10 in his last 5 games running the offense, and Bledsoe scored 19 points in 27 minutes last night as the off guard (with Dragic) and backup point.</p>
<p>This might be the beginning of a season-long trend that mirrors the Suns' entire franchise history: a high-scoring offense coupled with a just-good-enough defense.</p>
<p>And Jeff Hornacek's goal of 103 points per game may yet come true. They have scored 105.1 per game over the last seven games.</p>
https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/11/30/5159726/phoenix-suns-offense-better-than-its-defense-for-first-time-all-seasonDave King2013-11-29T07:55:45-07:002013-11-29T07:55:45-07:00Suns hoisting threes at historic rate
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<figcaption>Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>A year after being one of the league's worst offenses, the Phoenix Suns are forging a way into the league's upper echelon of offense by taking the right shots at the right times.</p> <p>The other day, I wrote how the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/">Suns</a> are <a target="_blank" href="http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/11/25/5140296/phoenix-suns-offseason-talk-has-come-true-with-new-team-sooner-than">taking more efficient shots this season</a> - those most likely worth the most points per attempt.</p>
<p>League averages in the 2013-14 season:</p>
<ul>
<li>55% (league average at rim - dunks, layups, hooks, putbacks) on 2-point shots = 1.1 points per attempt</li>
<li>38% (league average from 5-20 feet) on 2-point shots = 0.7 points per attempt</li>
<li> <b>35% (league average on 3 point shots) on 3s = 1.05 points per attempt</b><br>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Today, I will delve more in depth on the Suns' shot distribution this season compared to prior years to illustrate the shift to more three-point shooting and away from long two-point shots. Pretty pictures are included, for those still tripping on tryptophan.</p>
<p>The shot with the lowest value per attempt is anything outside paint but inside the three-point line. Of course, teams need to be able to shoot from all over, and the better shooters you have the more games you will win.</p>
<p>But if you're starting with a team who can't shoot from anywhere at a high clip (last year's Suns), you might as well at least have them take higher-value shots than not.</p>
<p>Interim head coach <span>Lindsey Hunter</span> famously said last spring, when asked about <span>Michael Beasley</span> and the Morrii's propensity to settle for long two-pointers, "I don't care where the shot comes from." He followed that up with, "I don't care if they miss as long as they are aggressive."</p>
<p>Let's compare the Suns' 2012-13 shot distribution to this season:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/assets/3650513/Screen_Shot_2013-11-29_at_7.16.32_AM.png" target="_blank"><img alt="Screen_shot_2013-11-29_at_7" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/assets/3650513/Screen_Shot_2013-11-29_at_7.16.32_AM_medium.png"></a> <br id="1385734626846"></p>
<p>As you can see, last year the Suns shot fewer three-pointers (league-average 1.05 points per attempt) than long two-pointers (league average 0.7 points per attempt). Not coincidentally, the Suns had the 29th-ranked offense out of 30 teams in the entire league.</p>
<p>Conversely, this season you can see a mighty shift. This season, the Suns are shooting more than twice as many high-value three-pointers as long two-pointers. As a result, with many of the same shooters as last season (the Morrii, Dragic and Tucker anyway), the Suns are now 10th in offensive efficiency after 15 games.</p>
<p>In fact, the Suns fact have made such a dramatic shift in their offensive shot distribution that they are <b>second only to Houston</b> in rate of three-point attempts per possession. No one else takes as many three-pointers as a percentage of their offense than the Suns and Rockets.</p>
<p>Houston is an anomaly in this league. Check out this shot distribution for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.thedreamshake.com/">Houston Rockets</a>:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/assets/3650521/Screen_Shot_2013-11-29_at_7.22.39_AM.png" target="_blank"><img alt="Screen_shot_2013-11-29_at_7" class="photo" src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/3650521/Screen_Shot_2013-11-29_at_7.22.39_AM_medium.png" height="179" width="293"></a> <br id="1385734990685"></p>
<p>Mind. Blown.</p>
<p>A full 35% of their shot attempts are three-pointers and - in eye-dropping fashion - just 14% of their shots are anywhere at all between 5 and 20 feet from the basket. We already know that's the worst value on the floor. Go Houston.</p>
<p>Houston is definitely an anomaly though. Every other NBA team knows that three-pointers and shots in the paint are the highest value, so they gear their defense around stopping those shots and forcing the low-value ones. Most other teams are much more evenly distributed across the shot ranges.</p>
<p>The Suns defend the three-point line and rim at a high clip, resulting directly in their 10th overall defensive rating, even after playing offensive juggernauts Miami and Portland this week.</p>
<p>Let's look at some of the other top offenses' shot distribution this season:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/3650537/Screen_Shot_2013-11-29_at_7.29.30_AM.png" target="_blank"><img alt="Screen_shot_2013-11-29_at_7" class="photo" src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/3650537/Screen_Shot_2013-11-29_at_7.29.30_AM_medium.png"></a> <br id="1385735400928"></p>
<p>They all favor the long ball over the mid range, though not to the extreme of Houston and not even the extreme of Phoenix.</p>
<p>It's interesting that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.clipsnation.com/">Clippers</a>, with <span>Blake Griffin</span> and <span>DeAndre Jordan</span> helping dub them "Lob City", only take 34% of their shots in the paint - much lower than the Rockets, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.poundingtherock.com/">Spurs</a>, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.hothothoops.com/">Heat</a> and even the Suns.</p>
<p>It's kudos to the Suns' coaching staff that they have figured out ways to score more efficiently based on shot distribution without having the benefit of supremely talented offensive players like <span>Chris Paul</span>, <span>James Harden</span> or <span>LeBron James</span>.</p>
<p>Speaking of extremely gifted offensive players, I was curious how the Suns' shot distribution looked when they were the top offense in the league back in the mid-2000s.</p>
<p>Remember, 2004-05 was the breakout year, 2005-06 was the no-Amare small-ball year, 2006-07 was the "best chance at a ring" year and 2009-10 was the "last best chance". All were 54 to 62-win teams.</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/assets/3650545/Screen_Shot_2013-11-29_at_7.47.01_AM.png" target="_blank"><img alt="Screen_shot_2013-11-29_at_7" class="photo" src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/assets/3650545/Screen_Shot_2013-11-29_at_7.47.01_AM_medium.png" height="131" width="527"></a> <br id="1385736470408"></p>
<p>As you can see, the mid-range shot was a staple of the best Suns offenses of the last decade, with the maestro <span>Steve Nash</span> calling the shots. No problem there.</p>
<p>But when you've got an offensively-challenged team, as Jeff Hornacek does this season, it helps to at least take the best shots possible.</p>
<p>The Suns are taking 71% of their shots either at the rim or behind the three-point line, a higher rate than any of those prior teams. None of the others grouped more than 66% of their shots in those ranges.</p>
<p>And the current team is taking more threes per possession than any team in Suns recent history, as well. None of the others even reached the 30% mark from that range.</p>
https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/11/29/5156862/phoenix-suns-are-hoisting-threes-at-historic-rates-taking-what-theDave King2013-11-25T06:35:37-07:002013-11-25T06:35:37-07:00Suns doing what coaching staff said they would
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<figcaption>Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Prior to the season, new head coach Jeff Hornacek and new defensive coordinator Mike Longabardi spoke to Bright Side about their plans to turn a bad defense and worse offense into strengths. So far, the results are there on both sides of the ball.</p> <p>The <a href="https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Phoenix Suns</a> have had great success so far this season on the defensive end, molding 10 new players into a cohesive unit that boasts a Top 10 defense. At the same time, they run a very efficient offense heavy on dunks, layups and threes.</p>
<p>The Suns don't give up easy shots, but they do generate easy ones on the other end.</p>
<p>The Suns' play this year perfectly mirrors the preseason rhetoric of the new GM, coach and defensive coordinator. When they were hired, they talked about a fast offense and stingy defense. But usually, offseason talk of shakeups and scheme changes result in more talk than action. Except this time it's actually happening.</p>
<p>That the Phoenix Suns are just 7-6 overall is an indictment of their late-game offensive execution in the half court and lack of a closer, yet they are one of the only teams in the league to hold a fourth quarter lead in 12 of their first 13 games.</p>
<p>How are the Suns doing it? With an 8th-ranked defense that defends the three-point line and rim at a high level, and an opportunistic offense that leads the league in fast-break points, is 9th in three-point attempts and 11th in three-point percentage (37.3%).</p>
<h3>Offense</h3>
<p>Coach Hornacek wanted the team to take more efficient shots - from the three-point line and at the rim, rather than mid range. The reason being that conversion rates are higher the closer you are to the rim, and that the higher points behind the arc makes up for that lower shooting % so far out. Everything in the middle is a waste of time.</p>
<p>League averages in the 2013-14 season:</p>
<ul>
<li>55% (league average at rim - dunks, layups, hooks, putbacks) on 2-point shots = 1.1 points per attempt</li>
<li><b><i>38% (league average from 5-20 feet) on 2-point shots = 0.7 points per attempt</i></b></li>
<li>35% (league average on 3 point shots) on 3s = 1.05 points per attempt</li>
</ul>
<p>Clearly, there's more value in shots at the rim or from behind the 3-point line. Hornacek had the right idea, of course. And so far, the results are very promising.</p>
<p>The Suns are a small team, but they have already:</p>
<ul>
<li>made <b>59% of their shots at the rim</b>, though only the 11th fewest attempts in the league<br>
</li>
<li>taken the league's <b>3rd fewest shots from 5-20 feet</b> (short to mid range), behind only Houston and Miami</li>
<li>taken the league's <b>5th most three-pointers</b>, making 37% of them</li>
</ul>
<p>"When you look at the good teams," Hornacek said <a href="http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/8/2/4580748/phoenix-suns-head-coach-jeff-hornacek-talks-about-the-teams-offense" target="_blank">over the summer, exclusively to Bright Side</a>. "They either have the shot or they're creating something for somebody else. Consequently, they'll get more open looks which will help their percentages. I think that every guy that you saw on this team last year can have a better shooting percentage in the coming year."</p>
<p>Evidence of this actually happening, as shown in this chart. Of the players in Suns' regular rotation, seven of them were in the NBA last year. Only Ish Smith has seen a drop in shooting percentage.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/assets/3626759/Screen_Shot_2013-11-25_at_6.30.17_AM.png"><img src="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/assets/3626759/Screen_Shot_2013-11-25_at_6.30.17_AM_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Screen_shot_2013-11-25_at_6"></a> <br id="1385386261354"><br id="1385345235401"></p>
<p><span>Markieff Morris</span> and <span>Gerald Green</span> are the biggest improvements, and it's easy to see how. Both are taking more of the best shots on the court, just as designed.</p>
<p>Many of the team's close shots are thanks to the league-leading fast break scoring team that feeds on back court steals that create fast break points at the rim. Otherwise, the Suns are very pedestrian in the half-court as teams pack the paint to stop Bledsoe and Dragic and don't have a quality post-up presence down low.</p>
<p>Still, the coaching staff works to maximize what they have. The Suns have the league's 8th-ranked "Effective" field goal % and "True" shooting % (which give credit to 3-pointers over 2-pointers) thanks to the heaving diet of fast breaks and three-pointers.</p>
<p>"When we look at things now with analytics, you see that the effective field goal percentages are 51%," Hornacek said <a href="http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/8/2/4580748/phoenix-suns-head-coach-jeff-hornacek-talks-about-the-teams-offense" target="_blank">in an exclusive interview with Bright Side over the summer</a>, in preparation for the season. "That's why a bunch of these teams are shooting a ton of threes because they get more value for their shot."</p>
<p>The key to this offense has been the success of the three-point shot. The point guards often drive to the hole to draw the defense, and then pass the ball back to the weak side for an open three behind the backs of the defenders. Dragic and Bledsoe are very quick and good at scoring near the rim, forcing the defense to adjust.</p>
<p>But all of this is moot if the guys can't make the three pointers.</p>
<div class="pullquote">This season, the "tanking" Suns have made 10+ three-pointers in each of their last five games, and made 10+ 3s seven times already in 13 games</div>
<p>This season, the "tanking" Suns have made 10+ three-pointers in each of their last five games, and <b>made 10+ 3s seven times already in 13 games</b> overall for a season average of 37.2% (9th overall) on 9.6 makes a game. Last year, by contrast, the Suns only made 10+ three pointers <b>fives times all year</b>, sinking only 32% of their tries.</p>
<p>But while the Suns are working toward more efficient shots, they are turning the ball over at an alarming rate which hurts their offensive results (just 17th in points per possession, which includes those that end in turnovers).</p>
<p>If the Suns could cut down their turnovers, their offense could be even more effective just by doing what they are already doing today.</p>
<p>The scheme is clearly working.</p>
<h3>Defense</h3>
<p>"If you don't take a good shot on offense, it's going to hurt you on defense," assistant coach and defensive coordinator <a href="http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/8/9/4606150/new-assistant-coach-mike-longabardi-talks-defense" target="_blank">Mike Longabardi said to Bright Side before the season</a>. "Likewise, if you don't play good defense, you're going to get a worse shot on offense."</p>
<p>It's the defense that has carried the Suns this year, grounded in defending the three point line and the rim. The very shots that the Suns want to take are the shots the Suns want to stop the other team from taking (and making) as well.</p>
<p>"The team that gets the most easy shots is the one that wins," Longabardi said. "So your job on defense is to make it hard for the other team to score."</p>
<div class="pullquote">
The Suns have given up the league's third-fewest three-point attempts and second-lowest three-point percentage
</div>
<ul>
<li>As a unit, the Suns have given up the league's third-fewest three-point attempts (17.5 per game) and allowed only a 32.9% conversion rate (2nd in the league). Any Suns fan can see that opponent is rarely getting an open three, quite the contrast from last season.</li>
<li>At the rim (shots within four feet of the basket), the Suns are allowing the league's fifth lowest conversion rate (53.8%) despite opponents taking a league-average number of attempts (400).</li>
<li>Opponents are taking a lot of midrange shots, however, which if you remember the chart above is the worst shot on the court.</li>
<li>Overall, the Suns have held their opponents to the league's 6th lowest field goal percentage (43.4%) on all shots.</li>
</ul>
<p>Seems elementary, right? Defend the shots you don't want them to take while leaving the bad shots open. Boston did that for the last several years, and now the Suns are doing it behind Longabardi's schemes.</p>
<p>Last year, however, the Suns were dead last in three point field goal defense (.388) and tied for 25th in eFG% (.512) against. They limited the opponents' three-point attempts okay (4th in league, allowing only 17.9 per game), but their poor rotations left those shots wide, wide open.</p>
<p>After allowing five of their first 13 opponents to shoot better than 50% in a game, this year's Suns have not allowed any of their opponents this season to exceed that mark.</p>
<p>Asked about the difference between last year and this year, in terms of attention to defense in practice, <span>P.J. Tucker</span> calls it "night and day".</p>
<h3>Summary</h3>
<h3></h3>
<p>These Suns are not the most talented set of players to ever wear Suns uniforms. There is not a multi-time All-Star on the roster, and their best two players have shared the court only four times in 13 games. They are inexperienced, with each man playing a bigger role than they've ever played before.</p>
<p>But these Suns are buying into a great scheme, orchestrated by the Suns coaching staff, and playing as hard as they can.</p>
<p>The results speak for themselves: top 10 defense + opportunistic, fast break offense = more success than expected.</p>
https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/11/25/5140296/phoenix-suns-offseason-talk-has-come-true-with-new-team-sooner-thanDave King